Energy Exchange

ERCOT’s Three-card Monte Trick For Grid Reliability

(Credit: Arnie Levin)

 This commentary was originally posted on the Texas Clean Air Matters blog.

First we have enough generating capacity, but next year is the problem; now that next year is upon us it’s really the next few years that are the issue. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), grid operator for most of Texas, foresees potential electricity shortages. Clearly the risk is real, but when?  This year? Two years from now? Reports swirl by, some only weeks apart, showing different numbers and contradicting previous reports. Are we seeing a bureaucratic version of Three-card Monte?

During last summer’s drought, demand peaked on August 3, using more than 68,000 megawatts. ERCOT’s stated goal is to maintain a 13.75% reserve margin in generating capacity. Their latest report shows the state’s electrical grid will fail to meet the target reserve margin as soon as 2014, two years from now.  A report in early May actually shows that this summer ERCOT will fail to meet that target as well, although it isn’t stated explicitly.

Meanwhile EPA is meeting with ERCOT and the nation’s other grid operators to develop an implementation timeline for the new Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) air toxics rule, which should begin this fall. Utilities have three years to implement the new rules…unless the three-year timeline threatens grid reliability. Then utilities can get a fourth year…unless grid reliability is still threatened. Then utilities have a full five years to comply.

Concerns about grid reliability are very real, but they are due to power companies deciding to hold off on constructing new power plants while prices are so low.  Unfortunately some state leaders and utilities have seized on these ERCOT reports, and are shifting their conclusions in an attempt to delay rules that have been in the works for years, and in some cases decades.  The new EPA standards will dramatically cut mercury, heavy metals, acid gas and other emissions from power plants. The public health benefits to our state will be enormous, especially for Texas children who breathe air tainted by power plant emissions. The cost of unwarranted delay is a price Texas should not have to pay.

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Postcard from Mark Brownstein in Ramallah, Palestinian Territory

Many environmentalist believe that the ideal landscape is one untouched by human hands, and we fight tenaciously to protect unspoiled places from all manner of intrusion.   Yet sometimes landscapes are inspiring precisely because of human action.  Etched upon the Judean Hills is evidence of over a millennium of human activity, and this ancient record enhances their beauty.  The biblical origins of environmentalism are found in Genesis 2:15 where God places man in the Garden of Eden to till and tend it, and driving through hills lined with ancient terraces you can almost hear the voices of a thousand generations whispering “amen.”

I believe that Thoreau was the first to offer the idea that a walk though unspoiled nature restores our souls, but no matter who first said it, I believe it.  But I also believe we were not put on this earth only to contemplate it, and so, how we choose to make use of nature is as important to our spiritual health as the fact that we appreciate it. 

On the outskirts of Ramallah, in the Palestinian Territories, the planned community of Rawabi is rising from the Judean Hills.  When you first arrive there it looks like any other construction site, and you recoil at how significantly the landscape is being scraped and shaped for what looks like just another housing development in the middle of the wilderness.  You recoil, that is, until you meet Amir Dajani, a large, jovial man, who is deputy director of what is this large project.  Dajani talks like a man on a mission, and he is.  The purpose of Rawabi is to establish a town that, in all respects, reflects a new and progressive vision for a Palestinian state.  Rawabi is being developed according to a master plan that takes into consideration all aspects of what makes for a quality life.  The vision statement for the development is “live, work, grow” and this reflects the fact that the developers are thinking about all aspects of what makes for a liveable community, and they are taking steps to ensure that this is a place where Palestinians of different ages, religions, and occupations can build a comfortable and secure life.  The hope is that Rawabi becomes a replicable model for building other similar communities on the West Bank.

Sustainability is at the heart of everything being done at Rawabi, from the site plan that honors the natural contours of site to the buildings which are efficient and make use of the ample solar energy available in the region.  Waste water will be fully recycled to support location-appropriate greenery, and smart grid technology will be deployed to help manage water and energy use.  Rawabi will be a city with free public transportation and a walkable town center where cars will not be required.  For those who believe that smarter land use is a necessary aspect of a sustainable, low carbon future, Rawabi is an exciting experiment in the making.

But perhaps most remarkable is how the Palestinian developers are reaching out to Israeli Jews for advice on the design and development of this project.  Israel itself was inspired by a utopian vision of a better future, and hopefully there is some healing that comes from Jewish expertise and experience helping to lay the foundation of an environmentally and economically sustainable Palestinian state alongside the Jewish one.  There are a thousand reasons why this all ultimately may not work, only some of which pertain to the environmental challenges being tackled here.  But the hope is that in tilling and tending this bit of earth properly, the seeds of a better future will begin to blossom for everybody.

This will be my last post card.  Tomorrow we spend time at the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial and tour the Old City of Jerusalem, both of which are infused with much personal meaning, but something I’ll choose to keep private. 

L’hitraot, chaverim.  Looking forward to seeing you all stateside.

Posted in Grid Modernization / Read 2 Responses

Postcard From Mark Brownstein In Israel- The Negev Desert

High tech entrepreneurs here repeatedly tell you that Israel is a small market, so if you hope to have your idea become a commercial success, from the start it must be designed and developed with other countries and cultures in mind.  What is true for software is also true for innovative ideas for sustainable living.  The Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, a program of the Ben-Gurion University of the Negev was established in 1974 to facilitate the sustainable development of the Negev desert – an area comprising 60% of Israel’s total land mass – but quickly established itself as one of the world’s leading research institutions on the challenges of living sustainably on the world’s many dry lands.  Professor Pedro Berliner, the director of the Institute tells the story of how they discovered that planting acacia trees in close proximity to crops like wheat or maize produces better results for both trees and crop than if planted apart.  The idea was piloted in Kenya and is now being brought to Botswana, where the Blaustein Institute hopes to develop a permanent presence in partnership with one of Botswana’s existing universities.  This is a good reminder that simple, low-tech solutions can often make a big difference to both people and the planet.

Credit: Zazzle

Of course, when it comes to energy, things are rarely ever simple.  Professor David Faiman, Chair of the Department of Solar Energy & Environmental Physics at the Blaustein Institute, spent the rest of the morning explaining the challenges of bringing solar energy to scale.  For over 30 years, Dr. Faiman has pioneered research into concentrated solar, and a commercial product based on his research, manufactured and marketed by Zenith Solar, shows tremendous promise for raising efficiency, lowering cost, and greatly reducing the physical footprint of commercially meaningful quantities of solar electricity.  Dr. Faiman would surely be both embarrassed and amused to be called a solar energy rock star, but I’ll call him that all the same. 

Equally exciting is the work Dr. Faiman has been doing to conceptualize what would be required to transition Israel’s electric grid to renewable energy.  Dr. Faiman, like many Israelis I’ve met on this trip, is both a visionary and a realist.  On the one hand, he believes it is possible for Israel to get to 90 percent renewable energy based on solar, energy storage, and natural gas-fired generation, but on the other hand, he believes it could take 60 years to get there.  His primary point is that Israel needs to start the transition now for there to be any hope of making even a 60 year deadline.  This means phasing out coal (which Israel continues to depend on quite a bit) and staying away from nuclear, both of which are too inflexible for a renewable-centric world.  Investments in natural-gas fired generation might be ok, as some of these facilities would likely be required to recharge the energy storage systems that would perform the lion’s share of the work in-filling where solar output is unavailable or varies.  His overarching concern is that Israel will continue to make short-term decisions that lead to the construction of conventional energy infrastructure, such as new coal plants (a proposal for a new plant was only narrowly defeated two years ago)  that all but lock the nation into a long-term future of fossil fuel dependence and high carbon pollution.

After a short visit to the research facility of Brightsource, a concentrating solar energy provider active in the United States, we began our hour and a half journey back to Tel Aviv.  As the bus rumbled along, I reflected on the irony that in a land of all this energy technology innovation, so little of it is actually deployed in Israel.  Indeed, practically the only place you see solar photovoltaic panels deployed in Israel are on the ramshackle homes of the Bedouin, who for a variety of reasons, are not otherwise connected to Israel’s electric grid.  Tel Aviv may be a sophisticated, high tech capital, but it is the agrarian, socially-traditional Bedouin, who is light years ahead when it comes to embracing advanced energy technology.

I’ve now asked several Israelis why this is, and two answers stick out in my mind.  The first is that Israel is a place where everyone focuses on the near term, because the future is so unpredictable.  Random rocket attacks (a rocket slammed into Beersheva this morning about a half hour after we checked out of our hotel there) and sudden outbreaks of serious fighting certainly contribute to a “live for this moment” attitude.   The second answer is tied to the first.  As one Israeli explained to me, after the Yom Kippur War in 1973, Israel, like the rest of the world suffered the consequences of high oil prices and invested in renewable energy, but as oil prices fell, the government came to view renewable deployment as expensive and unnecessary.   The recent experience of the oil embargo notwithstanding, the energy minister at the time concluded that Israel’s energy requirements will always be so small in the general scheme of things that even in times of global shortage there will always be fossil fuels available somewhere, albeit at a price.  In short, Israel did not have an energy supply problem, it had a money problem, and the only challenge was to find the cheapest of available options.

Fast forward to today.  The Egyptian natural gas pipeline that carried 40 percent of Israel’s natural gas supply was blown up this spring.  And, what is the response?  The Israel Electric Company simply switched to purchasing fuel oil and coal while it waits for the nation’s significant new offshore gas reserves to come on line.  A triumph for short term thinking in a nation that sells its visionary clean energy technologies to the rest of the world.

Posted in Natural Gas / Read 1 Response

Latest Brattle Group Report Points To Solar Power To Lessen Energy Crunch In Texas

Is there a way for Texas to keep the lights on in the face of our energy crunch and manage to save electric customers some money at the same time?  According to a new report from Brattle Group, solar power needs to be a big part of the answer if the Public Utilities Commission (PUC) plans to reduce the financial impact of their decisions on consumers.  Fresh on the heels of their report detailing changes that could be made by ERCOT to keep our electric grid reliable, comes a new report from The Brattle Group showing the important role solar power can play in solving our long-term energy problems.

The difference between the reports is really focused on whether short-term fixes to help build new fossil-fueled power plants are enough, or if Texas should be looking at long-term solutions for the whole market (not just power companies, but customers too).  The report couldn’t be more timely either: over the past few years, Texas has relied on the few forward thinking municipal utilities like San Antonio’s CPS, El Paso Electric and Austin Energy to attract solar companies to the state.  Until now, the approach has worked. Because of those three cities, as recently as last year, the Solar Foundation ranked Texas #7 for solar jobs in the country and #9 for solar installations but as solar markets continue to grow throughout the U.S., Texas may be left behind. 

The market is changing quickly.  With panel prices declining 47 percent over the last year, many other states have entered the solar market – which means Texas can no longer rely on a few utilities to keep the state on the solar industry’s radar.  In fact, according to the latest report from GTM Research, Texas has fallen from a ranking of #9 in the nation for new solar installations to #15.

As the Brattle Group’s new report shows, the importance of this shift relates not only to growing jobs in Texas, but also to the state’s ability to provide homeowners and businesses with reliable electricity. As we come off of the warmest spring on record in Texas, with triple digit temperatures making us all thankful for our air conditioners, reliable electricity will remain a critical issue. The new rules proposed by the PUC will help companies build new power plants, but these rules cannot focus solely on power companies.  As the Brattle Report shows, we can meet the energy crunch head-on with policies that help Texans invest in solar to meet our growing energy demand in a way that relies less on water to operate.

Posted in Renewable Energy, Texas / Read 1 Response

Postcard From Mark Brownstein In Sderot, Israel

(Credit: www.allnumis.com)

“Remember, when you hear the siren, you have 15 seconds to find cover.”  Such is life in the southern Israel town of Sderot only a few kilometers away from the Gaza Strip.  Fortunately, for my tour, today’s rocket attacks fell on the outskirts of town and did not affect our visit.  Israelis often point to such events as the reason why environmental issues are often not very high on the public policy agenda.  How hard is it to spend any time thinking about global warming, when there are more tangible and immediate threats confronting you?

And yet, global warming is having an immediate and tangible impact here as well.  Our visit to Sderot came after a tour of Israel’s largest desalination plant located in the neighboring town of Ashkelon on Israel’s Mediterranean coast.  Israel is chronically short of water, consuming 2 billion cubic meters of water per year where the nation’s natural hydrology is capable of producing, on average, 1.2 billion cubic meters per year, according to Abraham Tenne, head of the Desalination Division of the Israel Water Authority.  Mr. Tenne was blunt in reporting the facts.  The Israel Water Authority expects average rainfall to decline by 15 percent by 2040, while Israel’s population is expected to continue to grow by 1.7 percent each year.  The drought of 2008, where rainfall was only 65 percent of the current average, was a powerful reminder that today’s water situation is bad, and unchecked, it will only get worse. 

Mr. Tenne is understandably proud of the building or upgrades to Israel’s three desalination facilities, which are key to solving the problem, but he is quick to remind us that, as important as this technology is to Israel’s future, it is a last resort.  Israel’s consumption of 2 billion cubic meters of water by a population of roughly 8 million stands in sharp contrast to Arizona’s consumption of 8 billion cubic meters of water by a population of roughly 7 million.  He visited Arizona last year for an international water conference where he was asked to speak on desalination, and was shocked to see flood irrigation – the practice of watering crops by flooding the field – commonly practiced.  He contrasts this with Israel, where drip irrigation is standard practice for 95 percent of all agricultural production, and where the amount of water used is precisely controlled by technology that monitors the moisture at the root of the plant, delivering only what is required to maintain healthy growth.  He then tells us about London, which just inaugurated its first desalination plant, while doing little to fix the local water system where 40 percent of the water flowing through the system is lost to leaks.  And then, for the second time in two days, I hear of smart grid technology being deployed in Israel to pinpoint leaks.

Although recent discoveries of significant natural gas reserves off the Israeli coast suggest that Israel may be able to completely wean itself off coal, over 35 percent of the nation’s installed electric generation capacity comes from coal-fired power plants, including one right next door to the Ashkelon desalination plant we visited today.  But even when the desalination process is driven by natural gas-fired power plants, as this facility is (it generates its own electricity and actually sells some excess production back to the grid) the fact of the matter is that Israel’s total water system – not just desalination, but the pumps necessary to move water around the country – consumers 6 percent of the total electricity produced in Israel.  Thus, the battle to conserve water is also a battle to save energy, which in turn is a battle to avoid carbon emissions that contribute to global warming, and make Israel’s water situation worse.

We are spending tomorrow with some of Israel’s leading experts in solar energy, but already I am wondering why a nation so obviously blessed with ample, strong sunlight, seems to have so little invested in deploying solar power.  Solar hot water heaters have been required here since 1980, and as my friend, and EDF consultant, Roger Duncan, often reminds me, solar hot water heating is often the most overlooked cost-effective solar technology, but given Israel’s pressing challenge of finding both secure and sustainable supplies of electricity, the government’s policy of 10 percent renewable energy by 2020 seems incredibly modest.  A nation with the determination and technological prowess to erect the world’s most sophisticated missile defense system surely should be able to do better and tomorrow will be about finding out why not.

Posted in Grid Modernization, Natural Gas, Renewable Energy / Comments are closed

New Oil Industry Report on Wrong Track

The only surprise about the new report released today by the Western States Petroleum Association is what it doesn’t come right out and say: that the oil industry is pretty sure that those of us who believe climate change is one of the biggest issues facing California today are actually conspiring to put them out of business.

The report, “Understanding the Impact of AB 32,” is based on public data but was processed through the Boston Consulting Group’s proprietary modeling using the industry’s assumptions about the future. It reads less like an actual analysis of the potential impacts of California’s landmark climate law, and more like a laundry list of “woe is me” excuses for the oil refinery industry – not incidentally, the industry that paid for the report – claims that California’s innovative clean fuels policies will ruin their businesses.

The biggest problem with the report is its assumption that no one – none of California’s myriad economic sectors – will make changes aimed at reducing our dependence on oil, or at curbing dangerous greenhouse gas emissions. For example, even as refineries face falling demand for gasoline, in California and across the nation, this report implicitly assumes that refineries won’t adopt more efficient technologies, or change their volume of production in response to reduced demand.

In fact, the idea that California’s refineries would fail to do a brisk business in California, even under AB 32, is a load of hooey. California still represents one of the biggest and most lucrative markets for gasoline. And yet a significant amount of the fuel produced in California is currently shipped out of state, which certainly provides a substantial cushion for any reduction in local demand.

What California’s refineries should be focused on is how to become a leader in this new clean fuel economy. Low carbon fuel is going to be the fuel of the future, in high demand not only in the U.S. but abroad. By focusing now on making the changes needed to produce this kind of fuel, California’s refineries could get a jump start on this growing market – instead of bemoaning the slowing demand for their existing, outdated fuels.

There’s a reason they’re called fossil fuels, after all.

 

By Tim O’Connor and Jamie Fine Ph.D.

 

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