Energy Exchange

A Dynamic Approach To California Energy Use

This commentary was originally posted on the EDF California Dream 2.0 Blog.

Californians are poised for a more functional, data-driven model for setting the prices people pay for electricity.  The new model will make the massive differences in costs of providing electricity during the course of a typical day more evident to us as energy users, thereby inspiring more efficient use of electricity resources.

The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) started a rulemaking to examine if the current rate structure for residential energy users is fair and equitable across customer classes and if it:

  • supports statewide-energy goals;
  • facilitating technologies that enable customers to better manage their usage and bills;
  • enables conservation and efficiency on the customer side of the meter; and
  • increases the reliance on non-fossil based generation to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions.

We know already that the short answer is “no”, so CPUC is eyeing a transition to time variant (“dynamic”) rates.  According to Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), with time variant, or what is often referred to as “time-of-use”, pricing – rates “will be higher during summer weekday afternoons when electric demand is higher, typically noon to 6 p.m., May through October. In return you’ll pay lower rates at all other times. This means that when you use energy is just as important as how much you use.” 

EDF’s Energy team has been, and will continue to be, closely involved in the CPUC’s rulemaking, which will examine several facets of the current system.  EDF has also been involved in the related smart grid proceedings, such as the deployment of smart grid infrastructure – which provides the ability to both measure energy use in real time and inform customers about the costs (and environmental impacts) of their choices to use electricity at different times of the day.  This Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) enables a smoother transition to dynamic rates for residential consumers.

EDF is very encouraged that the CPUC is considering  time variant pricing because it will help consumers to be more thoughtful about their energy usage, particularly at times when demand is peaking and pushing electricity supply sources to their limits.  This type of rate structure can encourage conservation and reduce peak demand while providing customers with more choices that can ultimately lower their monthly bills.  For example, allowing consumers to see how much they can save on their electric bills by reducing their energy use during peak hours will encourage a shift of energy-intensive activities, such as washing and drying clothing and dishes, to off-peak (and less expensive) times of the day. 

Because a dynamic pricing system will alleviate pressure on the electric grid during peak demand, it will also lead to a more stable, less expensive energy system that is increasingly resilient to extreme weather events.  The economic motivation should also help to create an easy way for consumers to make decisions more efficiently, thereby lowering their electric bills and shrinking their environmental footprints.   

Futhermore, dynamic pricing can help integrate renewables and electric vehicles into the electric grid by allowing utilities to respond to price signals more effectively.  For example, time-of-use rates support electric vehicle charging at times when grid resources aren’t strained, such as late at night or early in the morning when most people are sleeping. 

This new approach will facilitate conservation and energy efficiency, as well as an increase in the use of clean energy sources that avoid harmful greenhouse gas and urban air pollution.   If adopted, the dynamic pricing model can be a common sense approach to saving energy and money, while promoting energy efficiency and a smarter, “greener,” electric grid country-wide.

Posted in California, Energy Efficiency, Grid Modernization, Time of Use / Read 3 Responses

Forecasting Calamity In Texas

(Credit: www.newsinarlington.com)

We’ve already had a spring of record highs, and now a June that is breaking records for electric demand (in June and July), including a peak demand that has already surpassed the projected peak demand for this summer –which we usually don’t hit until August.  Also, in an important decision last week – albeit one that won’t really change much this summer except for wholesale electric prices – the Public Utility Commission (PUC) voted 2-0 to raise the cap on energy bids in the electric market.  Given all of this activity over the past few weeks, one of the most interesting things to see has been the shift of focus from this summer to the next few summers, specifically 2014 and 2015, without stopping to consider why that time frame was chosen as a focus.

It all comes down to one obscure forecast, one that has almost nothing to do with energy: the Moody’s non-farm employment forecast. The energy crunch on the horizon that has everyone worried is a direct result of projected growth in demand in 2014/2015, derived from Moody’s projection that employment will remain fairly level in the near term, followed by a drastic increase in Texas employment around 2014.  Economic forces, in particular low natural gas prices and the need to further reduce pollution, will force some older, inefficient power plants out of the market, but the overwhelming factor is the projected ramp-up in demand in two years.

An important question arises that hasn’t been fully explored: why 2014, could it be later, or even sooner?  Today’s report on Texas Economic Indicators from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has good news: “Texas factory activity surged in June… posting its strongest reading in 15 months,” which is welcome news of continued economic expansion in Texas, but is our electric grid ready to handle this spike in demand?  Tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics will release its monthly unemployment numbers, which will have additional relevance for Texas as we struggle to meet electric demand in the face of record temperatures and economically-driven population growth.

The truth is, as with most projections, ERCOT’s planning process involves a little bit of art combined with a lot of analysis, and with every new national and local report on employment indicators the near term risks to our electric grid may shift.  As such, it’s important to realize that the major decisions currently being made at ERCOT and the PUC are largely the result of a single forecast with a highly time-dependent factor.

We won’t know how accurate these forecasts are until after the fact, but the decisions being made in Texas right now will have substantial, long-lasting effects on electric rates and customers.  Those effects haven’t been fully examined by the PUC, as the Houston Chronicle pointed out last week.  Historically the PUC has hesitated to take on clean energy policies purportedly out of concern for their impact on consumer rates, so it’s unclear why that analysis hasn’t been undertaken for such major market changes. 

What is clear is that these changes don’t do much to address real long term issues like water shortages, rising costs associated with fossil fuels and the flexibility to adapt to future economic conditions.  The recent Brattle reports – one showing that demand response is needed to maintain future reliability and another showing that solar power will help reduce electric costs – point to key steps the PUC can take to help customers deal with rising costs the will result from other PUC decisions.

Posted in Demand Response, Texas / Comments are closed

The Heat Is On In Texas, But Will The Power Be?

Source: Doggett, Trip. “Texas Renewable Energy Industries Association.” ERCOT. April 9, 2012.

As Texans celebrated the Summer solstice last week, the forecast for this week’s weather was simultaneously making people uneasy.  With practically all of Texas, from El Paso to the Panhandle and the Coast, hitting 100+ degrees the only solace is that we were spared triple digits for the majority of June. Despite this respite, it was by no means a cool spring. According to the National Climactic Data Center, “Texas had its warmest spring (March through May) on record and its third warmest January-through-May period“.  

This heat is not only uncomfortable for the people living in it, but it also puts a strain on our electric grid as demand increases.  According to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), “peak-hour power consumption could exceed 66,000 megawatts (MW) Monday afternoon, surpassing the monthly records for June of last year and straining the state’s electric resources.”  ERCOT goes on to conclude that it “expects to have adequate generation and surplus available to serve the state without imposing emergency programs that could lead to curtailment of power to certain industrial customers or broader rolling outages,” however warning, “that rolling outages could occur this summer given the state’s limited amount of surplus generation.”

So what is ERCOT planning for?

ERCOT is projecting weather, and thus electricity usage, using a “normal weather” baseline that reflects more a 2007 outlier (an abnormally cool and lush summer) than it does the actual trajectory of increasing temperatures year after year from 2006 to 2011.  Their “normal weather” equates to a usage of 63,898 MW.

But we are breaking records yet again. In May, we already set a “monthly power demand record of 59,037 MW, surpassing the previous high set in May 2011 by 2.9 percent, and an all-time ERCOT’s peak of 68,379 MW was set last August.” And this week, as predicted, “Tuesday broke the new peak demand record it set Monday. Electric use during the 4-5 p.m. hour reached 66,583 MW, also exceeding the standing record for July”. Typically in the high 80’s this time of year, Galveston reached 100 degrees in June for the first time ever.  

Despite, breaking records this June, and hitting that all-time peak of 68,379 MW last August, ERCOT’s projection for peak summer demand in 2013 is around 67,168 MW. This is a risky projection, but the good news is that this peak amount includes reductions that come from demand response (DR) and energy efficiency mechanisms thus allowing for a firm forecast of 65,649 MW instead.  We argue that if restrictions were lifted for demand response (DR) and energy efficiency measures were not being gutted we would cut that amount even further, avoiding the need for ramping up polluting peaker plants and building new ones.

PUC Chairman Nelson also reflected uncertainty as to the reliability of our grid when she said, “You know, we want to get the message out of reduced usage during peak demand…At the same time, we want to get the message out ‘Texas is open for business. We want to get the message out, peak demand, turn your thermostat up a couple degrees, don’t do your laundry, those kinds of things. But we don’t want to say, ‘if you don’t we’ll have rolling outages’, OK? So, it’s a fine line to walk.”

However, as we reported a few weeks ago, parts of the PUC’s proposed rules would actually hurt energy efficiency programs and decrease the effectiveness of current programs by adding unnecessary red tape and discouraging efficiency. The same types of programs that help shore up ERCOT’s peak demand projections for next year. Right when efficiency needs to expand, the PUC instead is making it more difficult. Why this mixed message?

John Moura, the reliability assessment manager at NERC, the North American Electric Reliability Corp., said “the ‘million-dollar question’ is what will happen if Texas sees a repeat of Aug. 3, 2011, when a prolonged heat wave led to a state record for electricity demand. If power lines go down, the wind stops blowing or drought forces a power plant to stop sucking up water to cool its equipment, the state could be in trouble.”

Posted in Demand Response, Energy Efficiency, Texas / Comments are closed

EDF Energy Innovation Series Feature #7: Cloud Platform From Tendril

Throughout 2012, EDF’s Energy Innovation Series will highlight more than 20 innovations across a broad range of energy categories, including smart grid and renewable energy technologies, energy efficiency financing, and progressive utilities, to name a few. This series will demonstrate that cost-effective, clean energy solutions are available now and imperative to lowering our dependence on fossil fuels.

For more information on this featured innovation, please view this video on Tendril’s cloud platform Tendril Connect.

Solar panels. Electric vehicles. Wifi thermostats. Home security and energy management systems. More than ever, the devices we use every day have the potential to talk to each other and work together. It’s what some people are calling the “Internet of things” or the “Energy Internet,” and it has the potential to put an amazing amount of control in consumers’ hands.

Boulder, Colorado-based Tendril is linking all those devices — and the data they generate — together. Tendril’s staff merges decades of expertise in the energy industry, software development and behavioral science with one goal: to deliver the most engaging consumer applications, so that both utilities and the manufacturers of smart goods and products can connect more closely with their consumers. Tendril hopes its software platform—Tendril Connect—will be the platform for the Energy Internet.

Just as software developers big and small are able to build apps for Windows, OSX, Android and iOS, they are also able to build energy apps for devices that may tell you the best electricity rate plan based on your usage and your utility’s offerings, or point you to changes you can make to shrink your carbon footprint.

In January 2012, Tendril opened its Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) making it possible for third party developers to leverage Tendril’s platform to create apps. More than 400 developers have registered with the company’s application developer program and more than 20 third party apps have been created—many at “hackathons”.

For example, in May at The Next Web “Hack Battle” coding marathon, in Amsterdam, a 15-year old hacker used Tendril’s APIs to build a prototype app that used geolocation data (GPS) to retrieve meter and customer information in order to control his home’s energy usage.

“It blew us away,” O’Neill said. “We gave this kid the tools, and he made a prototype in one weekend. Just imagine what teams of developers could do with a few months of work.”

Source: Tendril

Tendril Connect is an open standards-based cloud platform that connects utilities, homes, applications and devices to realize the opportunities unlocked by new, smarter grids.

As more and more energy data becomes available and more and more developers use this data to create compelling apps, consumers will have increased insights, choice and control over energy management.

One example is GreenButtonConnect.com, where consumers can upload their Green Button data and select Green Button apps from an app gallery. Green Button, supported by the Obama Administration and an impressive number of companies and organizations, is literally a green button on utility customer interface websites that customers can click to instantly download their historical energy use data in a simple, standardized electronic format.

“When it comes to energy products consumers want simplicity and ease of use,” O’Neill said. “But so do the innovators that will make those products. The amount of data being created by the energy system is exploding, but developers need a common language or platform to build on.”

All types of companies are moving into this area, from utilities and other energy-focused companies to information technology entrepreneurs who are looking at energy issues for the first time.  The potential for profit is coming into focus, and developers want to get in early and create the Energy Internet’s first killer app.

Posted in Energy Innovation, General / Comments are closed

ERCOT’s Three-card Monte Trick For Grid Reliability

(Credit: Arnie Levin)

 This commentary was originally posted on the Texas Clean Air Matters blog.

First we have enough generating capacity, but next year is the problem; now that next year is upon us it’s really the next few years that are the issue. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), grid operator for most of Texas, foresees potential electricity shortages. Clearly the risk is real, but when?  This year? Two years from now? Reports swirl by, some only weeks apart, showing different numbers and contradicting previous reports. Are we seeing a bureaucratic version of Three-card Monte?

During last summer’s drought, demand peaked on August 3, using more than 68,000 megawatts. ERCOT’s stated goal is to maintain a 13.75% reserve margin in generating capacity. Their latest report shows the state’s electrical grid will fail to meet the target reserve margin as soon as 2014, two years from now.  A report in early May actually shows that this summer ERCOT will fail to meet that target as well, although it isn’t stated explicitly.

Meanwhile EPA is meeting with ERCOT and the nation’s other grid operators to develop an implementation timeline for the new Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) air toxics rule, which should begin this fall. Utilities have three years to implement the new rules…unless the three-year timeline threatens grid reliability. Then utilities can get a fourth year…unless grid reliability is still threatened. Then utilities have a full five years to comply.

Concerns about grid reliability are very real, but they are due to power companies deciding to hold off on constructing new power plants while prices are so low.  Unfortunately some state leaders and utilities have seized on these ERCOT reports, and are shifting their conclusions in an attempt to delay rules that have been in the works for years, and in some cases decades.  The new EPA standards will dramatically cut mercury, heavy metals, acid gas and other emissions from power plants. The public health benefits to our state will be enormous, especially for Texas children who breathe air tainted by power plant emissions. The cost of unwarranted delay is a price Texas should not have to pay.

Posted in Texas / Comments are closed

Postcard from Mark Brownstein in Ramallah, Palestinian Territory

Many environmentalist believe that the ideal landscape is one untouched by human hands, and we fight tenaciously to protect unspoiled places from all manner of intrusion.   Yet sometimes landscapes are inspiring precisely because of human action.  Etched upon the Judean Hills is evidence of over a millennium of human activity, and this ancient record enhances their beauty.  The biblical origins of environmentalism are found in Genesis 2:15 where God places man in the Garden of Eden to till and tend it, and driving through hills lined with ancient terraces you can almost hear the voices of a thousand generations whispering “amen.”

I believe that Thoreau was the first to offer the idea that a walk though unspoiled nature restores our souls, but no matter who first said it, I believe it.  But I also believe we were not put on this earth only to contemplate it, and so, how we choose to make use of nature is as important to our spiritual health as the fact that we appreciate it. 

On the outskirts of Ramallah, in the Palestinian Territories, the planned community of Rawabi is rising from the Judean Hills.  When you first arrive there it looks like any other construction site, and you recoil at how significantly the landscape is being scraped and shaped for what looks like just another housing development in the middle of the wilderness.  You recoil, that is, until you meet Amir Dajani, a large, jovial man, who is deputy director of what is this large project.  Dajani talks like a man on a mission, and he is.  The purpose of Rawabi is to establish a town that, in all respects, reflects a new and progressive vision for a Palestinian state.  Rawabi is being developed according to a master plan that takes into consideration all aspects of what makes for a quality life.  The vision statement for the development is “live, work, grow” and this reflects the fact that the developers are thinking about all aspects of what makes for a liveable community, and they are taking steps to ensure that this is a place where Palestinians of different ages, religions, and occupations can build a comfortable and secure life.  The hope is that Rawabi becomes a replicable model for building other similar communities on the West Bank.

Sustainability is at the heart of everything being done at Rawabi, from the site plan that honors the natural contours of site to the buildings which are efficient and make use of the ample solar energy available in the region.  Waste water will be fully recycled to support location-appropriate greenery, and smart grid technology will be deployed to help manage water and energy use.  Rawabi will be a city with free public transportation and a walkable town center where cars will not be required.  For those who believe that smarter land use is a necessary aspect of a sustainable, low carbon future, Rawabi is an exciting experiment in the making.

But perhaps most remarkable is how the Palestinian developers are reaching out to Israeli Jews for advice on the design and development of this project.  Israel itself was inspired by a utopian vision of a better future, and hopefully there is some healing that comes from Jewish expertise and experience helping to lay the foundation of an environmentally and economically sustainable Palestinian state alongside the Jewish one.  There are a thousand reasons why this all ultimately may not work, only some of which pertain to the environmental challenges being tackled here.  But the hope is that in tilling and tending this bit of earth properly, the seeds of a better future will begin to blossom for everybody.

This will be my last post card.  Tomorrow we spend time at the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial and tour the Old City of Jerusalem, both of which are infused with much personal meaning, but something I’ll choose to keep private. 

L’hitraot, chaverim.  Looking forward to seeing you all stateside.

Posted in Grid Modernization / Read 2 Responses