Climate 411

North Carolina Carbon Plan: Why Duke’s gas bet is a risk to ratepayers and how offshore wind can carry the load

By / Published: June 17, 2024

On May 28, the Environmental Defense Fund, along with several other parties, filed expert testimony with the North Carolina Utilities Commission (NCUC) in North Carolina’s Carbon Plan proceeding. The outcome of these regulatory proceedings, which include hearings over the summer and a Commission order by end of year, will shape over $100 billion in long-term investments proposed by Duke Energy, and ultimately largely paid for by North Carolina electricity customers. This is a huge decision point for the state’s energy future, as I described in a recent op-ed published by NC Newsline.

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Also posted in Cities and states, Economics, Energy, Policy / Comments are closed

Despite threat of repeal, Washington state’s carbon market continues to raise urgently-needed revenue for communities in The Evergreen State

By / Bio / Published: June 12, 2024

Photo of Mount Rainer

Results were released today for Washington’s second quarterly auction of 2024, administered last Wednesday by the Department of Ecology (Ecology). During the auction, participating entities submitted their bids for allowances. Under the Climate Commitment Act, Washington’s major emitters are required to hold one allowance for every ton of greenhouse gas that they emit, with the total number of allowances available declining each year. This requires polluters in Washington to reduce their emissions in line with the state’s climate targets. By distributing allowances via auction, the state can both regulate emissions and raise important revenue to invest in frontline communities, accelerate clean job creation, and more.

Here are the results, released today:

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Also posted in Carbon Markets, Cities and states, News, Policy / Comments are closed

California’s second carbon market auction of the year raises revenue at critical time for climate funds

By / Bio / Published: May 30, 2024

This blog was co-authored by Sara Olsen, Project Manager, California Political Affairs

Results of the latest Western Climate Initiative auction were released today, showing continued demand for allowances and confidence in the long-term stability of this landmark program. This auction is expected to generate roughly $1.1 billion for the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF), which is dedicated to funding initiatives aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and building climate resilience.

A new report from the California Air Resources Board (CARB) finds that, in the past 10 years, climate investments like GGRF have reduced California’s emissions by 109.2 million metric tons — the equivalent to taking 80% of the state’s gas cars off the road — by investing in projects like adding zero-emissions transport options, building affordable housing near job centers and more. As California heads into another summer with an increased risk for wildfire and more impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly severe and evident, the importance of this fund is clearer than ever.

May auction results

  • All 51,589,488 current vintage allowances offered for sale were purchased, resulting in the 15th consecutive sold out auction. This is 0.72% or 373,000 more allowances than were offered at the previous auction.
  • The current auction settled at a price of $37.02, $12.98 above the $24.04 price floor and $4.74 below the February 2024 settlement price of $41.76.
  • All of the 7,211,000 future vintage allowances offered for sale were purchased — these allowances can be used for compliance beginning in 2027. This is the same number of future vintage allowances that were offered at the previous advance auction.
  • Future vintage allowances settled at $38.35, $14.31 above the $24.04 floor price and $2.65 below the February settlement price of $41.00.

What factors may be at play with these results?

A number of factors could be at play with today’s results which saw a lower settlement price than California’s most recent auction. The first is general market variability; potential program changes, such as those being considered by CARB, can drive uncertainty among market participants that results in price fluctuations. While prices in the WCI auctions tend to tick upwards, it’s not uncommon for prices to drop once in a while. This happened most recently in the August and November auctions in 2022, where prices dropped from the May 2022 price of $30.85 down to $27, and then down to $26.80 before starting to trend upward again. Last auction’s settlement price of $41.76 was a record price by $3.03, so today’s price puts the WCI market more on trend with where prices were in November and August of last year. Despite slightly lower prices this quarter, there’s still strong demand overall; the auction was completely sold out. The market continues to be stable, and some price fluctuations are to be expected, especially during periods of program adjustment.

Where is the revenue getting invested?

Over the past ten years, California delivered $11 billion from the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF) to more than half a million projects that cut pollution and mitigate the impacts of climate change. These investments yield meaningful environmental and community benefits, including a 109 million metric ton reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, 1,248 new or expanded transit projects, 29,800 new jobs, and 12,606 affordable housing projects under contract.

The $1.1 billion in revenue for GGRF from this auction comes at a critical moment, as California grapples with a $27.6 billion budget deficit. As the Governor and policymakers explore budget strategies, climate initiatives face the looming threat of funding cuts. In January, Governor Newsom proposed more than $3.1 billion in cuts and more than $5 billion in delays for climate funding. In the May Revision of his 2023-24 Budget Proposal, Governor Newsom proposed over $3 billion in additional cuts to significant climate investments. The proposal also reallocated funding for various climate programs to GGRF, relying on this source to alleviate the effects of the budget deficit.

Cap-and-trade, through emissions reductions and revenue generation, will be pivotal in addressing California’s current budget and climate challenges. The State’s reliance on the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund as a lifeline for essential climate initiatives only further underscores the need for these funds to be allocated strategically and exclusively towards climate and environmental justice priorities.

Also posted in California, Carbon Markets, Cities and states, Economics, Policy / Comments are closed

Advanced methane technologies can strengthen new landfill pollution limits

By / Bio / Published: May 20, 2024

(This post was co-authored by EDF’s Peter Zalzal)

When organic waste ends up in landfills, it produces methane — a powerful climate pollutant —as it decomposes.

In the U.S., landfills are our third largest source of methane and a major driver of climate change. They also emit large amounts of health-harming and even cancer-causing pollution, such as toxic benzene, that endangers nearby communities. And to make matters even worse, they cause noise and odor problems.

Recent scientific studies indicate that landfills may be an even greater source of pollution than we thought. A study led by scientists at Carbon Mapper and recently published in the journal Science surveyed 20% of open U.S. landfills and found significant point source emissions at the majority (52%) of sites.

Earlier work based on data from the TROPOMI space satellite looked at 73 landfills and found their pollution was, on median, 77% more than what was reported to EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program.

Advanced methane monitoring technology has developed rapidly in recent years, creating new opportunities to substantially reduce harmful pollution from landfills. EPA’s recently finalized oil and gas standards allow operators to deploy these technologies, such as aerial flyovers and drones, to find and fix methane leaks.

Building from this work, EPA now has a vital opportunity to incorporate advanced technologies into new landfill rules.

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Also posted in Clean Air Act, Innovation, News, Policy / Comments are closed

We urgently need pollution limits for hydrogen facilities

By / Bio / Published: May 15, 2024

A hydrogen center in Germany. 

The Environmental Protection Agency has now finalized a wide array of standards to protect people and the climate from dangerous pollution. Those standards cover some of the largest polluting sectors in the U.S., including oil and gas production, power plants, and cars and trucks.

But there’s another source of dangerous pollution that still isn’t subject to air pollution limits. With a projected doubling of hydrogen production over the next decade, we need protective standards that will ensure any growth in this industry doesn’t exacerbate public health and environmental harms. Luckily, EPA recently announced that it plans to do just that (see page 539).

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Also posted in News, Policy / Comments are closed

Resolving scientific uncertainties in nature-based climate solutions: Location, location, location

By / Bio / Published: March 21, 2024
Drone shot of mangrove trees off the coast of the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico.

Drone shot of mangrove trees off the coast of the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico. Carlos Aguilera / EDF Mexico

The world needs nature-based climate solutions (NbCS). These approaches use conservation, restoration, and management of natural and agricultural systems to retain existing, and sequester additional, carbon while reducing emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. NbCS have been suggested to meet 20-30% of the world’s climate goals. Correspondingly, nature-based actions are included in the national commitments of 63% (104 of 168) of the signatories of the Paris Agreement.

However, defining the climate impact of different solutions requires accurate scientific measurement and accounting of greenhouse gas mitigation, including how long that benefit lasts. Where we lack accurate measurements and estimates of future durability, we cannot yet rely on NbCS to meet our climate goals.

Assessment of the science on NbCS
Environmental Defense Fund recently worked with experts in academia and other conservation and research institutions to assess the scientific confidence in more than 40 NbCS that have been proposed. The results of that inquiry are both optimistic and sobering.

The four most frequently credited NbCS by the four major carbon credit registries have high scientific confidence – tropical and temperate forest avoided conversion or degradation and reforestation. The confidence of the scientific community in those NbCS supports investing in these as climate solutions and demonstrates that we can develop sufficient understanding of process, measurement, and accounting methods necessary to meet high quality crediting requirements.

However, the experts concluded that 90% (39/42) of the proposed NbCS assessed in the study currently have insufficient scientific evidence for having climate impact we can count on. Within that 90% are NbCS like avoided conversion and degradation of systems as different as mangroves and boreal forests (see below for why).

Promisingly, the experts do have confidence that we can remedy this situation: focused research over the next five years could resolve many of the remaining questions for two-thirds of those pathways. Given that some, like agroforestry, tropical peatland conservation, and biochar additions are also estimated to have large-scale climate impacts, this study provides a roadmap for prioritizing research efforts.

The importance of location
Every NbCS is different, and so are the specific uncertainties and research needs. Prediction of how natural systems may change as the climate changes – affecting their carbon storage and greenhouse gas emissions – is inherently uncertain. We are better at modeling some systems (like tropical forests) than others (like seagrass beds). But all NbCS pathways have something in common – location matters.

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Also posted in Basic Science of Global Warming, Carbon Markets, Forest protection, News, Oceans, Plants & Animals, Science / Comments are closed