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  • Blogging the science and policy of global warming

    Cap-and-Invest is California’s most cost-effective program to reduce climate-altering pollution while keeping costs down for families. Meeting this responsibility in the near-term falls on the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) rulemaking process.

    More ambitious, balanced results in reach

    Modeling shows CARB can deliver:

    Pollution cuts — 180 million tons of emissions between 2027-2030
    Affordability gains for working Californians — $2.8 billion for families earning $70,000 or less
    Funding to support the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund — $1.4 billion more through 2045

    Faster emissions cuts are affordable

    The price of emissions per ton in the Cap-and-Invest allowance market have hovered at or slightly above the price floor this past year, showing a tighter cap is the logical next step to recalibrate benefits from Cap-and-Invest.

    We can’t afford more delay

    The extension of Cap-and-Invest through AB 1207 last year requires the program, at a minimum, to align with the achievement of California’s emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2045. In 2024, CARB estimated 265 million tons in pollution cuts were necessary to align with the 2022 Scoping Plan — nearly double the amount now proposed.

    Time to deliver, again

    California has a proven track record of reducing emissions while growing the state’s economy. From 2000-2023, the state’s emissions fell 21% while the California economy grew 81%. As federal leaders double down on failed policies deepening our reliance on volatile energy sources that squeeze our wallets and fuel the climate crisis, California can continue showing another way is possible.

    California just took a vital step to increase transparency around corporate climate risks, helping investors and consumers make more informed decisions in a changing climate. Better information helps markets price risk more accurately, protects people’s retirement savings and rewards companies that are better prepared for a low-carbon future.

    On February 26, the California Air Resources Board unanimously approved initial rules implementing the state’s landmark climate disclosure laws. The laws require large companies doing business in California to publicly report their greenhouse gas emissions and disclose the financial risks climate change poses to their operations. The first emissions reports are due August 10, 2026.

    California’s disclosure program addresses a growing market problem: amid intensifying climate impacts, investors, regulators and consumers often lack reliable information about companies’ greenhouse gas emissions and climate-related risks and opportunities. That matters not just for markets in the abstract, but for people’s real financial security — including pension funds and 401(k)s that depend on sound investment decisions. By requiring consistent reporting from large companies operating in the state – the world’s fourth-largest economy – California is providing better information for investors, clearer expectations for businesses and stronger protections for Californians.

    Better data protects people’s investment earnings and retirement savings

    Millions of Americans rely on financial markets for retirement security. Pension funds and 401(k)s invest trillions in companies, but without reliable data, investors cannot accurately price climate-related risks or opportunities. Recent events highlight the stakes:

    As climate impacts accelerate – and markets respond – investors need clear information to distinguish between companies facing rising financial risks and those positioned to succeed by leading on clean solutions and resilience. Climate disclosure standards help close that gap. Better information allows markets to price climate risk more accurately, helping investors make well-informed decisions and protecting the retirement savings of millions of workers and families.

    Transparency rewards companies demonstrating real climate leadership

    Knowing that many consumers prefer climate-friendly businesses, companies are marketing themselves accordingly. But these claims are not always reliable. In one anonymous survey of corporate executives, a majority acknowledged their companies had engaged in some form of greenwashing. Disclosure standards help change that by enabling consumers to vet marketing claims with comparable, verifiable data.

    Many major companies already disclose detailed emissions data and climate strategies because transparency builds trust with customers, investors and employees. California’s rules create consistent expectations for all large companies operating in the state, creating a more level playing field and rewarding real leadership.

    Disclosure helps reduce climate pollution

    Transparency doesn’t just inform markets – it can drive action. Research consistently shows companies tend to reduce emissions once they begin measuring and publicly reporting them. When emissions data becomes visible:

    We have seen this dynamic before. When the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency created the Toxics Release Inventory in the 1980s, companies sharply reduced toxic pollution once emissions data became public. Other disclosure programs around the world have produced comparable results.

    California designed the program to work for business

    California designed its disclosure program around frameworks many companies already use. The rules align with established standards such as the Greenhouse Gas Protocol and the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, giving investors and consumers consistent data to evaluate corporate climate performance and progress.

    The rules also align with existing reporting timelines and requirements in California, reducing duplication for businesses. CARB built flexibility into the first year of implementation, allowing companies to demonstrate “good-faith efforts” to comply using available data while they strengthen reporting systems. For companies already leading on climate, greater transparency becomes a competitive advantage.

    California leadership matters more than ever

    As climate disasters cause increasing destruction across the United States and the transition to clean, affordable technologies continues, California is stepping up to provide the clarity investors, companies and consumers need. Thousands of the largest companies doing business in the state will now report consistent data on their greenhouse gas emissions and climate-related financial risks. That transparency strengthens markets, rewards responsible companies and helps investors manage risk in a rapidly changing climate.

    Coauthored by Zachary Decker

    The Trump Administration has a record of disregard for programs that support human life, safety, and public health. Now, it is targeting a research center that everything from our military to the insurance industry to our electricity providers rely on to keep us safe and informed.

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research, a federally-funded nerve center in Boulder, Colorado, is a textbook example of government serving the public interest. Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought has indicated the Trump administration’s intention to “break up” NCAR, calling it one of the main centers of “climate alarmism.” But environmental security without NCAR would be like trying to run a marathon blindfolded, without coordinating our feet.

    The Trump Administration thinks it’s in the national interest to cut NCAR’s programs and scope and that its value to all Americans can be preserved if it’s broken up and scattered. This is why they’re wrong.

    NCAR is in the national interest

    In 2024 alone, the United States suffered 27 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters causing ~$182.7B in damage and at least 568 deaths; and since 1980, cumulative losses exceed $2.9T. Silencing the science doesn’t turn down the risk; it just blinds the people who must manage it.

    These risks are highly interconnected, which is why NCAR is so valuable. NCAR is much more than a single laboratory: it is the backbone of U.S. environmental intelligence, an integrated hub of supercomputers, aircraft and open community models, where a research-to-forecast pathway converts science into action.

    With an annual budget of $125 million, NCAR contributes to the science infrastructure that generates over $31B in benefits each year, while costing less than 0.1% of the U.S. weather and climate disaster losses in 2024. Included in its mandate:

    When Americans check the weather, evacuate from wildfire smoke, harden military infrastructure, or watch a hurricane’s cone of uncertainty, they are leaning on NCAR’s work. NCAR serves actuaries and reinsurers, the aviation industry, emergency managers, utilities and power grid planners, as well as thousands of scientists in diverse fields. As damages from extreme weather like floods, hurricanes and wildfires increase year after year, it’s clear that threats from climate change will continue to threaten lives and livelihoods.

    NCAR’s integration is the asset

    Now to consider the second assumption — that NCAR could be dismantled, with “vital functions,” like weather prediction, simply reassigned elsewhere.

    NCAR’s unique value is the exact opposite of modularity: its real strength is not any single instrument or program but the way it fuses them into a unified Earth system engine. Its community of modelers, field scientists, aircraft engineers, pilots, and supercomputing experts work collaboratively—with hundreds, if not thousands of external researchers and businesses — to turn raw data into lifesaving forecasts. Access to NCAR’s “community models” and data is free and accessible to all, and used by scientists, experts, public agencies, and the private sector to improve, enhance, or utilize to protect American lives.

    Even across programs, NCAR’s systems are interconnected. The same framework that helps us understand hurricane intensity and coastal flooding also supports better simulation of atmospheric rivers and their rainfall, which is critical for water supply planning for over 50 million people in the American West. That framework also powers the model used to assess marine heatwaves, fisheries stressors and coastal resilience worldwide. At the same time, NCAR’s model used for severe storms, wildfire behavior, and smoke transport is tightly connected to its chemistry and air quality research; and its space weather models depend on coordinated observations and high-end computing. All these capabilities are sustained by shared aircraft, the NCAR Wyoming Supercomputing Center and expert teams working together.

    This produces an integrated architecture that underpins flood and air quality alerts, informs insurance and reinsurance risk modeling, supports national security planning, and trains the workforce for federal government agencies, tribes, states, and private firms. Fragmenting NCAR would fracture those connections and deliver less.

    A better path: Strengthen our shared science infrastructure

    NCAR can and should keep evolving — to modernize, streamline and maximize its ability to adapt to a world of changing risks. But any good faith modernization should start from a recognition of its value and what makes it work. We should embrace and double down on NCAR’s mission of science in service to society, seeking to understand hazards and enabling tools to save lives and prevent costly losses. We should recognize the importance of integration, affirming NCAR’s unified mission and invest in what makes it uniquely valuable.

    Today’s existing weather and future climate trajectory will expose Americans to severe risks. Dismantling NCAR will leave many sectors flying blind. NCAR is an essential part of our intelligence and ability to prepare and respond. It is also the product of decades of investment by scientists, state and local governments, the private sector, universities, and U.S. taxpayers. At its heart, it’s our center. Dismantling it would be a generational mistake.

    Results were released today for the first auction of the year, and 13th overall, in Washington’s Cap-and-Invest program. With prices down over $5 from Washington’s last auction, today’s results may be a reflection of covered entities’ growing confidence in a future linked market, following on the release last week of a draft linkage agreement between Washington, Québec and California.

    The auction showed a continuation of the strong demand seen in all of Washington’s auctions thus far, and is projected to generate $183 million in revenue for investments in communities, affordability and climate resilience in Washington State.

    Cap-and-Invest 101

    Washington’s Cap-and-Invest auctions are administered quarterly by the Department of Ecology (Ecology). During the auction, participating entities submitted their bids for allowances. Under the Climate Commitment Act — Washington’s landmark climate law that sets a binding, declining limit on pollution — major emitters in Washington are required to hold one allowance for every ton of greenhouse gas they emit, with the total number of allowances decreasing each year. This system requires Washington’s polluters to reduce their emissions in line with the state’s climate targets, as fewer allowances become available annually.

    March auction results

    What these results mean

    Today’s results come just over a week after the release of a draft linkage agreement between California, Washington and Québec. The decline in auction prices seen in today’s results may be a reflection of improved confidence among covered entities that, upon finalization of linkage processes in each jurisdiction, they will have access to a larger pool of allowances from a future joint market with California and Québec.

    California and Québec have shared a linked market for over a decade, demonstrating that well-designed linked cap-and-invest programs can lead to deeper pollution cuts while supporting economic growth. Adding Washington to this established partnership would build on a proven model and strengthen the programs of all participants. Merging into a larger market would likely lead to more stable, predictable allowance prices, which is crucial for polluters to make decisions about compliance planning and investing in decarbonization.

    Washington has been making steady progress towards their linkage rulemaking, which they’re expecting to finalize in mid-2026. California has been working to update their own program rules, including updating their emissions allowance budgets, and is expected to take up its own linkage process this year as well. Linkage is a key opportunity for climate leadership for both states, to take a step that will strengthen one of our best and most cost-effective tools to reduce emissions and raise revenue for community investments.

    With a draft agreement now published, Washington, California and Québec are taking a significant step towards market linkage and stronger programs that can drive long-term emissions reductions with greater certainty. Washington’s Department of Ecology is taking public feedback on the draft through May 1, and the linked market could launch as early as 2027. The need for scalable, durable climate action at the state level has never been greater, and these jurisdictions are showing how working across borders can drive meaningful progress.

    With Governor Abigail Spanberger’s signature on a budget agreement that directs the Commonwealth to immediately rejoin the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), Virginia is back on track with the climate policy the state needs. This budget agreement — which legislators call the “caboose” budget — doesn’t just cut pollution, it supports communities as they adapt to increased flood risk and creates a dedicated pathway to increase energy affordability for those who need it most.

    A huge dose of gratitude goes out to the General Assembly and the Governor for recognizing that a cleaner grid and affordable bills go hand-in-hand. By re-entering this proven, multi-state program, Virginia is securing a healthier, more resilient and more affordable future. 

    A hard-fought victory

    Virginia’s journey with RGGI has been eventful. The General Assembly originally passed a law in 2020 requiring participation, and the Commonwealth successfully participated from 2021 to 2023. Unfortunately, the Youngkin administration unlawfully withdrew the state from the program in 2024. While a court ruled his unilateral repeal “unlawful and without effect” in November 2024, an ongoing appeal kept Virginia on the sidelines.

    With Governor Spanberger’s signature, that uncertainty is over. Virginia is back in the game.

    How RGGI works for Virginians

    RGGI is a practical, market-based solution to climate pollution. Power plant owners are required to purchase an allowance for every ton of carbon dioxide their plant emits. Over time, the supply of these allowances decreases, which steadily drives down emissions across participating states. Beyond delivering cleaner air, RGGI actively reduces utility reliance on dirtier, more expensive fossil fuels. This transition leads to steadier, more predictable energy bills, greater energy independence and enhanced grid security.

    Where the money goes: Resilience and affordability

    When power plants purchase carbon allowances, the revenue generated flows directly back into participating states.

    Here is how RGGI revenue is put to work in Virginia:

    Looking ahead

    The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality has now been instructed to begin the necessary steps to rejoin RGGI immediately, a process that should conclude by the end of May. Rejoining RGGI is a victory for every Virginian who wants cleaner air, lower utility bills and neighborhoods that are protected from the impacts of climate change. Thank you, Governor Spanberger, Delegates and Senators, for prioritizing Virginians and climate over polluters.

    (This post was co-authored by EDF technical analyst Grace Hauser)  

    The Trump administration has rolled back the 2024 Mercury and Air Toxics Standards.

    Those standards guard against mercury, arsenic,  lead and other dangerous pollution from coal-fired power plants – pollution that causes brain damage in babies, cancer, and serious heart and lung diseases.  

    But at Environmental Defense Fund, we just did an analysis of 2025 coal plant mercury data that shows a clear need for stronger protections — not their abandonment.

    That new data is included in our map of the top 30 mercury-polluting power plants, which you can see below:

    Map of Top 30 Highest Mercury-Emitting Coal-Fired Power Plants in 2025 (Produced by EDF. Data from EPA’s Clean Air Markets Program Data (CAMPD): MATS emissions, coal and coal refuse plants, operating hours only.)
    Map of Top 30 Highest Mercury-Emitting Coal-Fired Power Plants in 2025 (Produced by EDF. Data from EPA’s Clean Air Markets Program Data (CAMPD): MATS emissions, coal and coal refuse plants, operating hours only.)

    Our updated map shows significant mercury emissions concentrated near a small set of high-emitting facilities in North Dakota and Texas, many of which burn lignite coal.

    Lignite coal is an especially dirty power source. It contains higher levels of mercury and other toxics than other types of coal, and more lignite coal must be burned to generate power compared to other types of coal, which then produces even more emissions.  

    Before the 2024 Mercury and Air Toxics Standards, lignite coal plants were allowed to release more than three times as much mercury as other coal plants. The 2024 Mercury and Air Toxics Standards closed this loophole, and required lignite plants to meet the same mercury pollution standard that all other coal plants have been subject to since 2012. Now, with the Trump EPA’s repeal, the lignite loophole is reopened.

    Here’s more highlights from our updated analysis:

    Our analysis finds that, while only eight of the  30  most-polluting plants burned lignite coal in 2025, those plants are heavily concentrated at the very top of the list – all three of the nation’s highest mercury emitters are lignite-fired (see the graphic below).

    Top Ten Mercury-Emitting Coal-Fired Power Plants (2023-2025) 
    Top Ten Mercury-Emitting Coal-Fired Power Plants (2023-2025) 

    Texas and North Dakota contain the most extensive lignite deposits in the U.S. – and our analysis finds that those two states have the highest coal plant mercury emissions (see the chart below)

    Some of the most striking increases in mercury pollution in 2025 were seen in coal-fired power plants that previously did not make the top 30 list. 

    The Roxboro plant in North Carolina shows how increased operation of fossil generation can drive pollution. From January 2023 through November 2025, Roxboro increased its generation by roughly 50% and its mercury emissions rose by 192.8% (from 2023 Form EIA-923 and 2025 Form EIA-923 November 2025, Page 4 Generator Data).

    That caused it to jump from the 75th-highest mercury emitting coal plant to the 19th

    Several coal-fired power plants reduced their mercury emissions from 2023 to 2025, but much of this decline reflects reduced coal use and lower electricity generation during that period rather than cleaner operations. 

    For example, the Martin Lake plant reduced its mercury emissions by roughly 67% (see the chart above) but its electricity generation fell by 30% due to one of its units being offline for the entirety of 2025 (from 2025 Form EIA-923 November 2025, Page 4 Generator Data).

    In addition to closing the lignite loophole, EDF has long advocated for strengthening the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards for non-lignite coal plants.

    One example of why is the non-lignite Harrison plant (see the chart above). It increased its mercury emissions by approximately 30% since 2023, which contributed to West Virginia’s status as the state with the third-highest coal plant mercury emissions in 2025 

    Cost reasonable and technologically feasible control solutions are also readily available for these plants.

    You can explore the full data set on 2025 mercury emissions here.  And read more about the Trump EPA’s rollback of the 2024 Mercury and Air Toxics Standards here.