Investments to Meet Emissions Goals are Driving Innovation and Growth in U.S. Auto Industry

15261010832_b13a8d395c_kThe past couple of weeks have seen a whirlwind of announcements related to the U.S. auto industry.

The century-old industry has been hailed as the fastest U.S. job creator – expanding payroll by “nearly 35 percent” in recent years. Manufacturers have introduced dozens of new, fuel-efficient models. Technology companies and automotive manufacturers are collaborating more than ever to add features, and to get the world ready for self-driving vehicles.

The need for climate action has been a critical driving factor in each of these trends.

The Clean Car Standards have been focusing auto industry investment and innovations since they were finalized in 2010. Over that time, the automobile industry has made a dramatic return to profitability and added jobs – all while exceeding the Clean Car Standards. The industry has also started to bring to market a new generation of fuel-saving solutions.

Confirmation of these trends could be found at the recent Consumer Electronics Show and the Detroit Auto Show, where manufacturers paraded out their latest developments.

  • Ford stated that it expects sales of electric vehicles will overtake sales of gas-fueled vehicles within 15 years. Ford showcased its ability to improve conventional vehicles by unveiling the 2018 model Ford F150 – the best selling vehicle in the U.S. – with options for a more fuel efficient 3.3 liter six cylinder engine and automatic stop-start technology. It also announced new hybrid versions of the F-150 and Mustang by 2020. The company promised a new fully electric SUV vehicle with 300-mile range by 2020.
  • General Motors (GM) celebrated having the fully-electric, 238-mile range Chevy Bolt awarded the North American Car of the Year or Truck of the Year. The Chevy Bolt was previously awarded Motor Trend Car of the Year. The Bolt, which came to market last month, is also at the center of GM’s work on self-driving vehicle technology
  • Nissan announced a new generation of its LEAF electric vehicle, with “autonomous drive functionality" for highways.
  • Honda publicized its plan to introduce a new, U.S.-made hybrid vehicle in 2018 and roll out its Clarity Electric and the Clarity Plug-In Hybrid vehicles.
  • Toyota appointed its president (grandson of the company’s founder) to lead their newly formed electric car division, in an effort to “speed up development of electric cars.” 
  • Volkswagen – unveiled a prototype electric van capable of a 270-mile range and with room for eight-passengers. The company has committed to have at least 25 percent of its global sales be electric vehicles by 2025.
  • Samsung introduced a new lithium-ion battery cell for electric vehicles. The battery promises over 350 miles of range and a 20-minute fast charge. The battery is slated for production in 2021.
  • Tesla declared that its gigafactory for battery production was open for business. The Reno, Nevada facility already employees almost 3,000 workers, and is ultimately expected to employ 6,500 in full-time positions.
  • Mercedes announced in Paris last year that electric cars would account for 25 percent of the company’s deliveries in 2025, backed by plans to invest $1.1 billion in battery technology.

As these developments show, automakers and their suppliers are investing and bringing to market clean vehicle solutions beyond what even the Clean Car Standards require.

These companies are making these investments because there is a robust domestic market for clean cars. Electric vehicle sales in the U.S., for example, were up more than 50 percent in the second half of 2016 (compared to 2015).

Companies are also making these investments to stay competitive in a global race that will define the next chapter of mobility. GM, for example, had a third of its global sales in China in 2016. China is the largest market worldwide for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and if U.S. automakers want to be competitive there they will need to stay on the leading edge of the technology curve. Autotomy and electrification will be the hallmarks of this new, global chapter.

By driving more investment in future offerings, the Clean Car Standards help position U.S. manufacturers to win this race at home and abroad.

This perspective was recently voiced by the United Auto Workers, which noted:

“Our competitors around the globe are working to strengthen environmental standards and it would be counterproductive to enact policies that provide disincentives for investing in advanced technologies and improving efficiency. History has taught us that a diverse fleet is essential for strong export sales and keeping jobs in the United States. Efficiency and emission standards can and must continue to be a win-win for the environment, working families, domestic manufacturing and the overall economy.”

We couldn’t agree more.

Posted in Cars and Pollution, Clean Air Act, Jobs, News, Partners for Change, Policy| Leave a comment

2016 Wrap-Up: States, Power Companies Lead in Cutting Carbon; Election Not Slowing Expected 2017 Progress

(This post was co-authored by EDF Associate Charlie Jiang. It was revised on January 6, 2017)

The new Block Island Wind Farm in Rhode Island -- one of many examples of clean energy progress in 2016. Photo courtesy Deepwater Wind

The new Block Island Wind Farm in Rhode Island — one of many examples of clean energy progress in 2016. Photo courtesy Deepwater Wind

2016 was a big year for progress in the U.S. power sector. Renewable energy sources provided 16.9 percent of the country’s electricity in the first half of 2016, up from 13.7 percent for all of 2015. The country’s first offshore wind farm opened off the coast of Rhode Island. Most importantly, carbon emissions from the power sector are projected to continue to decline and hit levels not seen since 1992.

Strong leadership by forward-thinking governors, policymakers, and power company executives who recognize the imperative of lower-carbon generation and the promise of clean energy, powerful market forces intensifying the push to lower-carbon resources, and the critical federal regulatory overlay of the Clean Power Plan — which has made clear that unlimited carbon pollution is a thing of the past — have all combined to deepen a trend towards cleaner electricity production at this dynamic moment in time.

Even with any possible political maneuverings in Washington, D.C. to reverse clean energy and climate progress, it is clear that the transition to a low-carbon future is well under way.

States and power companies are surging ahead — and given the favorable economics of clean energy and the urgent need to reduce climate-destabilizing pollution it would be foolish to turn back.

  • More than 21 gigawatts of wind and solar power (utility-scale and rooftop) are projected to have been installed in 2016, accounting for 68 percent of new U.S. capacity additions. That’s according to analyses by FERCSNL EnergyEIA, and SEIA/GTM Research.
  • Some of the country’s oldest and least efficient power plants were scheduled to close in 2016, transitioning 5.3 gigawatts of capacity, in no small part due to increasingly favorable economics for low-carbon generation.
  • Since 2014, solar installation has created more jobs than oil and gas pipeline construction and crude petroleum and natural gas extraction combined. According to recent reports, there are now more than 400,000 jobs in renewable energy.

Together, these trends indicate the U.S. power sector is well-positioned to continue to reduce carbon pollution at a significant pace. And because of the favorable economics for low-carbon generation and the urgent need to protect against climate risks, hundreds of major corporations are on record supporting the Clean Power Plan and the achievement of emission reduction targets.

Power sector carbon emissions declined to 21 percent below 2005 levels in 2015, and are expected to drop again in 2016, meaning the power sector is already two-thirds of the way towards meeting its 2030 pollution reduction goals under the Clean Power Plan.

Notably, this de-carbonization of the electric sector has proceeded while the U.S economy has grown. In addition, recent analysis by the Brookings Institution shows that as of 2014, at least 33 individual states have also decoupled their economic growth from carbon pollution — continuing to grow their gross domestic product while significantly slowing their rate of greenhouse gas emissions.

Heading into 2017, companies from coast to coast are well-positioned to secure ongoing reductions in carbon emissions from their fleets – thereby helping the United States to achieve international commitments under the Paris Agreement, delivering greater value to customers and shareholders while ensuring state or municipal policy objectives will be achieved, and sharpening their ability to meet declining emissions limits in accordance with a federal regulatory framework.

Even the vast majority of states litigating against the Clean Power Plan can comply with the CPP targets by optimizing the carbon pollution benefits from already planned investments and compliance with existing state policies. The Clean Power Plan is crucial to making certain that states and companies take advantage of the opportunity to ensure the carbon reduction potential of these investments are fully realized, so they can in fact achieve these reasonable protections.

The shift to a lower-carbon future should continue, as power companies recognize both the imperative to reduce emissions and the benefits of moving in this direction despite changing political winds in Washington.

For example, shortly after the November election, a number of executives from historically coal-intensive companies convincingly reaffirmed their commitment to de-carbonization:

  • No matter who occupies the White House, “[coal is] not coming back,” said American Electric Power CEO Nick Akins. “We’re moving to a cleaner-energy economy and we’re still getting pressure from investors to reduce carbon emissions. I don’t see that changing.”
  • “It can't just be, ‘We're going to get rid of these regulations, and you guys can party until the next administration comes,’” Cloud Peak Energy Vice President Richard Reavey said. “There are serious global concerns about climate emissions. We have to recognize that's a political reality and work within that framework.”
  • “Markets are driving a lot of the behavior,” said Tom Williams, a spokesman for Duke Energy. “[W]e’ll continue to move toward a lower carbon energy mix.”
  • “We've always had a point of view at Southern that there's a reasonable trajectory in which to move the portfolio of the United States to a lower carbon future,” said Southern Company CEO Tom Fanning. “There's a way to transition the fleet now.” In a later interview, Fanning added: “It's clear that the courts have given the EPA the right to deal with carbon in a certain way.”
  • “Regardless of the outcome of the election,” said Frank PragerXcel Energy’s Vice President of Policy and Federal Affairs, “Xcel Energy will continue pursuing energy and environmental strategies that appeal to policymakers across the political spectrum because we are focused on renewable and other infrastructure projects that will reduce carbon dioxide emissions without increasing prices or sacrificing reliability.”

Acting on these commitments, many power companies are continuing to expand their renewable investments while phasing out high-carbon generation, putting them in a solid position to comply with robust carbon pollution regulations.

Here are a few recent highlights just from the last months:

  • At the end of December, Florida Power & Light (FPL) showed strong leadership when announcing plans to shut down the recently-acquired 250-megawatt Cedar Bay coal plant at the end of the year. “I'm very proud of our employees for proposing this innovative approach that's environmentally beneficial and saves customers millions of dollars,” said CEO Eric Silagy. FPL plans to replace the retired power with natural gas and solar — the company added 224 megawatts of solar capacity in 2016. FPL also noted that their system is now “cleaner today than the 2030 carbon emissions rate goal for Florida outlined by the Clean Power Plan,” while average residential bills are about 30 percent lower than the national average.
  • On December 30, Southern Company announced an agreement with Renewable Energy Systems America to develop 3,000 megawatts of renewable energy scheduled to come online between 2018 and 2020. The agreement comes as Southern Company continued to boost its renewable portfolio with the acquisition of 300 megawatts of wind power in late December, bringing its total to more than 4,000 megawatts of renewable generation added or announced since 2012.
  • Duke Energy acquired its first solar project in Colorado on December 8. The purchase advances Duke’s goal of owning more than 6,000 megawatts of renewable energy projects by 2020.

After the election, a number of power companies reiterated their commitment to reducing air pollution and meeting their obligations under the federal Clean Air Act by transitioning aging coal plants.

  • PNM Resources spokesman Pahl Shipley said the company has no change in plans for retiring two units at a New Mexico plant, totaling 837 megawatts of capacity, in 2017. PNM will replace the retired capacity with solar and nuclear power.
  • The Tennessee Valley Authority is moving forward with plans to retire two coal plants in 2017, as well as a third in 2018.
  • Colorado-based electric cooperative Tri-State Generation will move forward with plans to retire its 100-megawatt Nucla coal plant and Unit 1 of the Craig coal plant. “We are moving forward with retirement activities and developing a transition plan for the employees and communities,” said Tri-State spokesman Lee Boughey after the election.

These announcements follow one of the biggest clean energy leadership stories of 2016 – commitments by two midcontinent utilities, Xcel Energy and Berkshire Hathaway Energy, to go big on cost-effective investments in new wind resources.

  • This past year, Minnesota regulators approved a plan for Xcel Energy to construct as much as 1,800 megawatts of new wind power and 1,400 megawatts of solar in the state by 2030. Xcel also received approval to build a 600 megawatt wind farm in Colorado.
  • Berkshire subsidiary MidAmerican Energy secured approval to construct a massive 2,000 megawatt wind farm in Iowa that will be the “largest wind energy project in US history.” Said CEO Bill Fehrman: “Our customers want more renewable energy, and we couldn’t agree more.”

State policymakers have not stayed on the sidelines, either. 2016 sustained progress as states moved forward with commonsense efforts to reduce emissions of harmful air pollutants. And even with promises to roll back critical clean air, climate, and clean energy progress coming out of Washington, D.C., states made clear after the election that they will not be slowed down by potential federal backsliding:

  • On December 7, Illinois enacted a comprehensive new energy bill that will in part double the state’s energy efficiency portfolio and allow for 4,300 megawatts of new solar and wind power while providing for continued operation of zero-emission nuclear facilities. These measures are expected to reduce the state’s carbon emissions 56 percent by 2030.
  • On December 15, Michigan lawmakers approved a new bill to increase the state’s renewable portfolio standard to 15 percent by 2021, up from 10 percent. Republican Governor Rick Snyder touted the bill in a statement: “What we’re in is a huge transition in how we get our energy. We’ve got a lot of aging coal plants that are beyond their useful life, and it’s not worth investing in them anymore … We can transition to both natural gas and renewables and let the markets sort of define the balance between those two, so we’re moving away from an old energy source [where] we had to import all of this coal.”
  • Also in December, Washington Governor Jay Inslee proposed the state adopt a first-of-its-kind carbon tax of $25 per metric ton of carbon pollution. The proposal supplements the state’s innovative Clean Air Rule, adopted in September, which caps carbon emissions from individual polluters.
  • Nine states comprising the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative are engaged in a stakeholder process designed to establish new, more protective, standards for climate pollution.
  • In Oregon, regulators are evaluating options for a market-based mechanism that could link to the California-Quebec carbon market, releasing a partial draft report on November 21.
  • Governors such as Colorado’s John Hickenlooper continue to display strong leadership and a keen understanding of the imperative to move to a low-carbon future. After the election, Hickenlooper said he remains committed to fulfilling the goals of the Clean Power Plan, no matter what happens to the rule.
  • In Pennsylvania, a spokesman for Governor Tom Wolf’s Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) noted that: “Pennsylvania’s carbon footprint has been shrinking rapidly due to market based decisions being made in the state’s electric generating sector … It is likely that this trend will continue.” He added that the DEP “will continue to seek ways to continue addressing climate change.”
  • In California, Governor Jerry Brown mounted a vigorous defense of California’s climate leadership and the role the state will continue to play in setting the stage for ongoing progress and defending the important progress of the last eight years. “We’ve got the scientists, we’ve got the lawyers and we’re ready to fight. We’re ready to defend,” he said.

The momentum that power companies and states have generated towards achieving a clean energy future is powerful and encouraging.

Looking to 2017 and beyond, market trends are expected to continue to help facilitate de-carbonization of the electric sector, while federal and state policies must continue to provide certainty about the pace and depth of emissions reductions needed to address the threat of climate change. These policies will help companies plan clean energy investments in a way that maximizes benefits for consumers and facilitates optimal deployment of available resources.

The Clean Power Plan remains crucial to achieving these goals. Any disruption in the Clean Power Plan’s implementation could put long-overdue and readily achievable emission reductions at risk.

As we ring in the New Year, EDF will keep working with a diverse set of stakeholders across the country — including many state officials and power companies — to defend these critical environmental safeguards. At the same time, we will work vigorously to ensure that we achieve the reductions in carbon pollution envisioned by the program.

 

Posted in Clean Air Act, Clean Power Plan, Economics, Energy, EPA litgation, Green Jobs, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Jobs, Partners for Change, Policy| Comments are closed

A Holiday Gift for the Environment – New Tools to Fight Invasive Species

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Kudzu in Atlanta, GA – one of many invasive species in the U.S. Photo by Scott Ehardt through Wikimedia Commons

The environment got an early gift this holiday season.

The Obama Administration has just released an update to an Executive Order first developed in 1999 on safeguarding the nation from the impacts of invasive species.

If you’ve ever lived in Florida, like I used to, you’ve seen the danger of invasive species first-hand. Whether it’s the nasty bites of fire ants, or the incessant need to control weedy invaders that threaten to overtake the landscape, or the menace of invasive snakes in the Everglades, invaders interfere everywhere.

Florida is just one of the many places around the U.S. where it’s hard to ignore the impacts of invasive, non-native species on everyday life. If you are a farmer or a rancher or enjoy fishing or boating or birdwatching, invaders can be an expensive problem, a health threat, and a substantial inconvenience. Invaders cost the U.S. billions of dollars annually and pose significant threats to our health and livelihoods.

As a plant ecologist, I started by learning where these non-native species are coming from. They can arrive accidentally – as hitchhikers on other imports or the packing material those imports are shipped in – or purposely – for food, ornamentals, pets, or other uses like erosion control. My investigation into plant invaders showed that the vast majority – perhaps 90 percent – were purposely introduced.

That information led me to focus on how we might prevent the introduction of new invaders, through risk analyses and other methods. Over the years, our ability to identify the likely bad actors – whether they are plant, animal, insect, or disease – has really improved.

That brings me back to the updated Executive Order.

The main emphasis of the original Executive Order was to ensure coordinated action among the federal agencies to prevent new invaders and control existing ones, as well as to work in partnership with the private sector to achieve these goals.

In addition to reinforcing and strengthening the original intent of the Order, this update emphasizes that human and environmental health need protection, and that those efforts will be impacted by climate change. The updated Order also recognizes that the need to seek and take advantage of technological advances for both prevention and management or control of invaders.

The updated Executive Order was announced on the same day that an Innovation Summit on new potential options for addressing invasive species was held. I had the chance to attend that summit.

In addition to hearing about approaches to control species ranging from fish to plant and human diseases (including some very cool new methods for detection and control), presenters discussed how to incentivize innovation around this issues. Summit presentations showed that the advances called for in the updated Executive Order are emerging, providing an optimistic outlook for all of us concerned about this issue.

Because invaders don’t respect property boundaries and don’t stay put, we need everyone to join the effort to stop their import and movement. News of the Zika virus in the U.S., carried by a non-native mosquito that also carries at least four other diseases, is a clear indicator of the need to take aggressive action. So the Obama Administration’s decision to update the Executive Order is a great holiday gift for all of us.

Posted in News, Plants & Animals, Science| Comments are closed

EPA Responds to States, Provides Useful Information for Developing Cost-Effective Programs to Reduce Carbon Pollution

By Pam Kiely and Nicholas Bianco

Earlier today the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released several draft  documents designed to provide additional information for states and other stakeholders as they work together to reduce emissions of carbon pollution from power plants.

EPA notes that making these working drafts available:

[A]llows us to share our work to date and to respond to the states that have requested information prior to the end of the Administration.

The materials provide valuable insights that can be used by states currently implementing or considering developing their own programs for reducing carbon pollution, and can be leveraged as states evaluate ongoing state policy efforts to achieve pollution reductions under the Clean Power Plan.

The Clean Power Plan establishes America’s first ever limits on carbon pollution from power plants. Once implemented, it will provide essential protections for public health and the environment – saving up to 3,600 lives each year and delivering up to $54 billion in annual climate and health benefits – while also reducing electricity bills for American families.

These documents reflect extensive public input and engagement as well as decades of practical experience reducing air pollution at the state and federal level. They provide constructive information in response to direct requests for this type of material made by states who are interested in having the best information available as they undertake their own planning, public engagement, and regulatory initiatives.

A letter submitted to EPA by 14 states  requested “additional information and assistance” to help states “prudently plan for and implement a variety of state and federal obligations” because many states, as well as their stakeholders, understand that continuing to navigate the dynamic transition underway today in the power sector requires comprehensively evaluating and integrating state policy priorities with their best understanding of existing and future federal policy.

While the Supreme Court has stayed enforcement of the Clean Power Plan, EPA’s provision of helpful information in response to this letter is entirely consistent with actions taken by past Republican and Democratic Administrations to provide clarification and information on Clean Air Act rules that had been stayed by the courts.

States such as Pennsylvania and Colorado have recently underscored their commitment to continuing state-driven efforts to address climate change and greenhouse gas emissions, while more than a dozen power companies have continued to affirm that the transition to cleaner energy resources and progress toward de-carbonization of the electric sector is ongoing.

State officials and many companies keenly understand that prudent evaluation of the federal policy landscape, and ongoing deployment of no-regrets strategies and investments that well-position them to meet declining limits on carbon pollution, make sense. Additional information about options for Clean Power Plan implementation will only facilitate sensible alignment of state efforts already underway.

EPA released four draft documents today:

  1. Draft state models to help policymakers and regulators develop state-specific strategies to realize the benefits and achieve the emissions reduction targets in the Clean Power Plan. The draft models outline two highly flexible approaches for reducing carbon pollution in a cost-effective manner. By providing these models, EPA is helping to facilitate state innovation and the realization of pollution reductions aligned with state policies and prerogatives. These models provide greater clarity about practical implementation considerations so that states have the best information available about cost-effective opportunities to reduce climate pollution as they move ahead navigating, and helping to facilitate, the transition underway in the power sector.
  2. Draft EM&V Guidance for Demand-Side Energy Efficiency. EPA published draft guidance that states can use if they decide to implement demand-side energy efficiency projects. This guidance details methods for ensuring that project developers deliver high quality projects by providing options for monitoring and verification procedures that states can adopt if they are interested. Such support is extremely valuable, particularly when one considers that energy efficiency projects routinely deliver $2 in savings for Americans for every $1 invested, and in some cases up to $5 for every $1 invested.
  3. Draft Clean Power Plan Tracking Systems White Paper. EPA released draft materials designed to further assist states by providing information about how a tracking system could be designed to facilitate administration of the program. In so doing, EPA further demonstrates the relative ease with which a state can administer a flexible, cost-effective program to achieve carbon pollution reductions.
  4. Draft Technical Support Document: Leakage Requirement. If choosing to adopt a mass-based emission budget trading program instead of other program alternatives, this document  provides valuable information for addressing emissions leakage and securing the emissions reductions contemplated by the Best System of Emission Reduction. In addition to the streamlined approach for leakage mitigation that EPA finalized in the Clean Power Plan (using larger state budgets with the “new source complement” and including all fossil sources in the program), the working draft helpfully outlines a set of sample strategies that states could potentially use to guarantee the expected emissions outcome of their program, depending on particular state circumstances. The draft document notes the expectation that any strategy will include a process for performing periodic evaluations and look-backs that states and EPA could use to ensure the effectiveness of those measures. It also discusses the value of establishing mechanisms to address any shortcomings in performance. Together these measures underscore the importance of continuing to ensure on an ongoing basis that state program design secures the expected level of emissions reductions, and highlights the many options available to do so.

These draft materials build on decades of experience that EPA and states have in successfully implementing flexible compliance programs to reduce air pollution and drive innovation, and they show how these approaches can be applied for the Clean Power Plan. These same flexible frameworks have been used to reduce emissions under other Clean Air Act standards at a fraction of the cost that opposing parties have claimed –  and there is strong evidence that this will hold true for the Clean Power Plan as well (for examples see here, here, and here).

Climate pollution from the electricity sector has already fallen 21 percent below 2005 levels – which means America is already almost two-thirds of the way towards the 2030 Clean Power Plan emission targets. Emissions reductions and clean energy investments are widespread across states and power companies – even those that may be opposed to the Clean Power Plan itself. Analysis conducted for EDF by M.J. Bradley & Associates found that all 27 litigating states can comply with the Clean Power Plan just by leveraging already planned investments coupled with flexible compliance programs. Many of the power companies litigating against the Clean Power Plan are also well positioned to reach their targets, thanks to the increasingly low cost of lower- and zero-carbon generation.

While this progress is encouraging, the analyses also show that the Clean Power Plan has an essential role to play in ensuring that reasonable protections from climate pollution are realized. With the release of today’s draft documents, EPA is responding to the request by states, power companies, and other stakeholders to share lessons learned for flexible cost-effective implementation of the Clean Power Plan. These insights will prove to be valuable to states at all stages of planning for a low-carbon future.

 

Posted in Clean Air Act, Clean Power Plan, News, Policy| Comments are closed

5 Things You Should Know About America’s Clean Car Standards

By Nicholas Bianco & Hilary Sinnamon, EDF Consultant

This month EPA released a Proposed Determination that the protective greenhouse gas emissions standards finalized in 2012 for model year 2022-2025 passenger cars and lights trucks remain appropriate under the Clean Air Act. This proposed determination found that auto manufacturers can meet the model year 2022-2025 standards at a lower cost than previously predicted, providing net savings for families, significant benefits to public health and welfare, and enhancing energy security.

Americans overwhelmingly want more fuel-efficient and less polluting vehicles because they help families make ends meet by saving them money at the pump.

EPA had previously estimated that consumers purchasing new vehicles in 2025 would spend up to $8,200 less on fuel over the lifetime of those vehicles.

The Clean Car standards have already helped drive innovation and deployment of the technologies and vehicles that customers are embracing – to the point where manufacturers have beat the standards in each of the last 4 years while setting new sales records.

U.S. manufacturers have returned from the brink of collapse in 2008, making a dramatic return to profitability while selling cleaner and more fuel efficient vehicles than ever before (see figure). Continuing these standards will help ensure that manufacturers retain their competitive edge and remain a vibrant force for the American economy in the years ahead.

1. Clean Car Standards Save American Families And Businesses Money

The Clean Car standards are already delivering benefits to American families and businesses, and these savings are expected to grow in the years ahead. Consumers purchasing new vehicles in 2025 are expected to spend up to $8,200 less on fuel over the lifetime of those vehicles. The 86 percent of Americans who finance their vehicle with a 5-year loan are expected to immediately realize the cost savings from cleaner more efficient vehicles. This is true even with today’s low gas prices.

Over the duration of the Clean Cars program, American families and businesses will avoid up to $1.7 trillion in fuel expenditures, which is more than double the funds injected into the economy by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (aka, the stimulus package). When businesses reduce fuel costs, it allows them to invest more money and create more jobs in local communities.

Oil prices may have fallen recently, but everyone knows that oil prices can be volatile. It wasn’t long ago that oil was trading at more than $100 per barrel, and that gasoline prices were roughly 50 percent higher than they are today. Thus, it should come as little surprise that consumers continue to rate fuel economy as one of their top criteria when shopping for a new car – 81 percent said they support the Clean Car standards. More efficient vehicles provide protection against volatility in fuel prices. For example, each Ford F-150 bought in 2015 will use about 180 fewer gallons of gasoline a year than those manufactured before the Clean Cars program went into effect, saving owners $300 to $700 per year. Ford reports that these fuel savings come at the same time as improvements to vehicle strength, pulling power, acceleration, and handling.

2.  Clean Car Standards Will Improve Climate And Energy Security

The Clean Car standards are also a crucial component of U.S. efforts to reduce carbon pollution and help avert the most damaging effects of climate change. The program will eliminate an estimated 6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide over the life of the vehicles subject to the standards, which is more than a year’s worth of U.S. carbon emissions. Without the standards, emissions from the sector would rise considerably.

Nearly half of the oil consumed by Americans every year is used driving our passenger cars and light trucks. The Clean Car standards will enhance our nation’s energy security by reducing oil consumption by 2 million barrels per day by 2025. This is almost as much oil as we import from OPEC countries (net imports were 2.65 million barrels per day in 2015). Security experts agree that our nation’s dependence on oil is a threat to security and more efficient cars and trucks will help reduce that threat. According to Retired Lt. General Richard Zilmer:

"Over-reliance on oil ties our nation to far-flung conflicts, sends our troops into harm’s way, and endangers them once they’re in conflict zones. Ensuring that the cars and trucks we drive every day go farther on every gallon of gas makes our nation stronger.”

3. The Automobile Industry Has Made A Dramatic Return To Profitability And Added Jobs – All While Exceeding The Clean Car Standards

During the height of the economic recession in 2008, the American auto industry was on the verge of collapse. This prompted the Obama Administration to develop a bailout package for the industry, which provided the boost the industry needed to help rebound.

Last year drivers in the United States bought more cars than ever before – roughly 70 percent more vehicles than during the recession – as fuel economy rose to its highest levels yet. In total, the auto industry has added nearly 700,000 direct jobs since the recession, supporting several million indirect jobs throughout the economy. In fact, auto manufacturing jobs accounted for 40 percent of all net jobs added in U.S. manufacturing since the recession. Today, the auto industry directly employs nearly 3 million Americans and employment at auto dealerships is at its highest levels ever. Meanwhile, sustained innovation continues to bring new fuel-efficient technologies to the marketplace while creating new jobs throughout the industry.

Source: EPA

Source: EPA p.iii

All this has occurred while the auto industry as a whole has exceeded the climate pollution standards in each of the last four years (i.e., model years 2012-2015 – see figure). These efficiency improvements have come while other metrics of vehicle performance have continued to improve, including acceleration times and durability. In addition to the industry as a whole exceeding today’s standards, a number of individual vehicle models meet standards all the way out to 2025. Today there are already more than 100 car, SUV, and pickup models on the market that meet standards set for 2020 and beyond.

4. Clean Car Standards Have Played A Vital Role In Driving Innovation And Deployment Of Cost-Effective Efficiency Technologies

Automakers and suppliers are developing and deploying innovative technologies faster than EPA anticipated when the standards were finalized. Since the Clean Car program began in 2012, there has been roughly a doubling in: the number of SUVs that achieve 25 miles per gallon or more; the number of cars that achieve 30 miles per gallon or more; and the number of cars that achieve 40 miles per gallon or more (MY 2011 vs. MY 2016 – see chart).

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Source: EPA, p.ES9

We see this playing out with a number of very popular models like the Ford F-150, Toyota Rav 4, and Honda Civic, where improved efficiency through powertrain innovation, deployment of downsized and turbocharged engines, and use of more advanced materials such as high-strength lightweight steel and high-strength military-grade aluminum, have allowed these vehicles to deliver greater performance while improving fuel economy at a rate greater than required by the standards.

The standards have also helped spur sustained innovation. In 2015 alone, hybrid and electric vehicle technologies combined were granted nearly 700 patents. The majority of these patents were granted to large automakers, including GM, Ford, Toyota, and Honda.

Moving forward, a new generation of zero emission vehicles has the potential to transform the sector. Chevrolet’s all-electric Bolt is just beginning to hit show rooms. Motor Trends has already declared it the vehicle of the year, writing that Chevy “has made electric-powered transport for the masses a reality…[the Bolt] is the car of tomorrow, today.” Chevy is hardly alone. The Tesla Model 3 is set to begin rolling out in 2017, and has already racked up pre-orders for approximately 400,000 vehicles. These advancements have been powered by a remarkable decline in the price of batteries – about 70 percent between 2007 and 2014. These price declines are expected to continue in the years ahead, further reducing the costs of electric vehicles.

5.  Clean Car Standards Can Help Ensure The Auto Industry Retains Its Competitive Edge And Remains A Vibrant Force For The American Economy In The Years Ahead

Improvements in vehicle efficiency and reductions in climate pollution have coincided with a period of steady growth in the auto industry. Drivers in the United States bought more cars in 2015 than ever before. In total, about 17.5 million cars and trucks were sold last year, overtaking the 17.3 million sales in 2000 and far outpacing the 10.4 million sales in 2009, when taxpayers paid billions to bail out the automakers.

The Clean Car standards are essential to ensuring that this resurgence endures, and that American autoworkers have a strong position in the years ahead. These standards insulate the auto market from fuel price shocks, and that market stability translates into employment stability. The Clean Car standards have led U.S. automakers to offer a more diverse and more efficient mix of vehicles. As a result, their fleets will remain attractive to consumers in the years ahead, even if fuel prices spike again.

Analysis by Ceres found that profits by the three largest U.S. automakers (Ford, GM, and Chrysler) would plummet more than $1 billion per year in response to fuel price shocks without the Clean Cars program. Meanwhile, suppliers would lose up to $1.42 billion, costing American automakers and suppliers billions per year and putting many jobs at risk. Their analysis further showed that by driving deployment of cleaner and more fuel efficient vehicles, the Clean Cars program can insulate these 3 manufacturers from high fuel prices, and that pre-tax profits would remain robust under a wide range of high and low gasoline price scenarios.

Source: ICCT

Source: ICCT

Clean Car standards are also essential if the American auto sector is going to keep pace with global trends. Many other nations have adopted standards that will drive improved performance of passenger vehicles in a manner comparable to those standards established by the Clean Cars program here in the United States, and some nations are planning to go farther faster.

This includes, but is not limited to: Canada, the European Union, China, India and South Korea (see chart). These trends are particularly notable when one considers that the largest market growth will occur in China and India, which together could add nearly 15 million in additional vehicle sales each year in 2025 above and beyond today’s sales. This is almost as much as total U.S. passenger vehicle sales in 2015. As a result, any backtracking on the 2025 standards would therefore risk leaving U.S. manufacturers behind.

 

The Clean Cars program has been an enormous success, delivering savings at the pump to families while providing significant benefits to public health and welfare. Manufacturers have repeatedly demonstrated that they are capable of meeting the standards. They have exceeded the Clean Cars standards in each of the last 4 years, while continuing to deploy new technologies at cheaper costs than previously anticipated.

Meanwhile, the next generation of clean vehicles is beginning to hit the streets, including models that far surpass the standards set through 2025. These vehicles offer the promise of even lower fuel bills, cleaner air, and energy independence. Now is not the time to run from progress. Now is the time to embrace the future, to embrace American innovation, and to reaffirm our commitment to a clean transportation system.

Posted in Cars and Pollution| Comments are closed

Congressman Gives Trump a Plan to Erase Health, Safety, And Environment Safeguards

At Risk: The Air We Breathe, Water We Drink, and Food We Eat

The conservative House Freedom Caucus has provided President-Elect Trump a “recommended list of regulations to remove.” Congressman Mark Meadows (R-NC), chair of the all-Republican Freedom Caucus, identified 228 federal rules they hope Trump will help eliminate.

Thirty-two of the proposals would roll back safety, health and environmental standards that protect the air we breathe, the water we drink, the food we eat, and our nation’s infrastructure (from pipelines to airports). By rolling back these regulations, the plan would essentially prevent the agencies responsible for protecting us from doing their job.

Another 43 proposals are aimed at undermining America’s progress on clean energy and climate change, pushing us away from energy efficiency and renewable energy sources toward more reliance on fossil fuels. This includes eliminating two dozen Department of Energy energy efficiency standards that save families money on energy bills, reduce energy waste, and prevent pollution.

Environmental Defense Fund has posted a copy of the Freedom Caucus document online (first obtained by the Washington Post) and added highlights to show the 75 health, safety, environment, and energy rollbacks.

The leading targets for these attacks are the Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Energy, but other agencies targeted include the Federal Aviation Administration, the State Department, the Department of Interior and others.

Trump’s Pick to Lead EPA Is An Added Threat

The danger of this regulatory ‘kill list’ is compounded by Donald Trump’s picks for key cabinet positions that would traditionally be the first to defend their agencies from political interference. Many of the recommendations are favorites of the fossil fuel lobby, which will have unprecedented power in Trump’s cabinet.

Trump’s decision to entrust Scott Pruitt with running the Environmental Protection Agency is especially dangerous. EPA is responsible for protecting our families from air and water pollution as well as toxic chemicals. Pruitt, however, has repeatedly and systematically teamed up with fossil fuel companies to sue the Environmental Protection Agency to prevent EPA action on regulating toxic mercury, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. In a 2014 investigative report, the New York Times exposed Pruitt’s “secretive alliance” with oil and gas companies while Attorney General of Oklahoma.

Breaking Down the Regulations at Risk

Here is a summary of some of the most alarming Freedom Caucus proposals that Pruitt and others in Trump’s cabinet will be looking over. The Freedom Caucus list has inaccuracies, and it seems to be based on the premise that Trump can erase rules with a stroke of the pen in the first 100 days. For most of these, he cannot, because the agencies have responsibilities to implement laws and are subject to oversight by the courts. But that does not mean that these regulations are safe from diversion of funds, lack of enforcement, legislative attacks, and other efforts to weaken them.

In the following list, the numbers in parentheses match the numbers in the House Freedom Caucus plan.

  • Eliminate air pollution standards for smog-forming ozone (174), lung-damaging soot (fine particles, 178), and rules to reduce air pollution from tailpipes (175, 181) and smokestacks (182, 183)
  • Reverse course on climate change, including: erasing carbon pollution regulations for power plants (173, 182, 183), tailpipes (175, 181), and airplanes (194); cancelling the Paris agreement (161); and eliminating the Green Climate Fund (172).
  • Roll back Clean Water standards that protect the Great Lakes (186), Chesapeake Bay (185), and to prevent pollution of wetlands (13) and rivers (199) across the nation.
  • Block regulations to prevent dangerous chemical accidents that release toxic chemicals into surrounding communities (189).
  • Jeopardize Worker safety, including repealing standards to prevent lung cancer among workers exposed to silica dust (135).
  • Repeal two dozen energy efficiency standards for appliances and industrial equipment (28-53).
  • Repeal natural gas pipeline safety standards passed in response to gas pipeline disasters, including the 2010 San Bruno disaster in California (153).
  • Repeal fuel economy and tailpipe standards for cars that are saving consumers money at the pump, reducing our dependency on oil, and reducing air pollution (175, 181).
  • Eliminate food safety regulations, including fish inspections (3).
  • Strip FDA’s authority to regulate the tobacco industry (55).
  • Repeal an FDA rule to safeguard our food supply against tampering by terrorists (83).
  • Eliminate the State Department agencies responsible for environmental science, protecting our oceans, and addressing climate change (162, 170, 171).
  • Block FAA regulations aimed at improving the safety of air traffic management at airports (156).
Posted in Cars and Pollution, Clean Air Act, Clean Power Plan, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, News, Policy, Science| Comments are closed
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