Climate 411

Cherry blossoms: a microcosm of the global climate crisis

Cherry blossoms in Washington, D.C. reached peak bloom extremely early this year. Photo by Ilissa Ocko

(This blog was co-authored by EDF Climate Scientist Fiona Lo)

Washington D.C.’s famous cherry blossoms are once again blooming earlier than expected.  

In fact, this year’s peak bloom occurred two and a half weeks earlier than the average over the past 100 years, due to near-record warm temperatures in March. 

This ranks as the second earliest peak bloom on record. Even the cherry blossom bud cycle occurred faster than any other year in the last two decades.  

So what is happening and why is this significant?  

Here we break down what you need to know about cherry blossoms and climate change. 

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Also posted in Agriculture, Basic Science of Global Warming, Extreme Weather, Science / Comments are closed

Resolving scientific uncertainties in nature-based climate solutions: Location, location, location

Drone shot of mangrove trees off the coast of the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico.

Drone shot of mangrove trees off the coast of the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico. Carlos Aguilera / EDF Mexico

The world needs nature-based climate solutions (NbCS). These approaches use conservation, restoration, and management of natural and agricultural systems to retain existing, and sequester additional, carbon while reducing emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. NbCS have been suggested to meet 20-30% of the world’s climate goals. Correspondingly, nature-based actions are included in the national commitments of 63% (104 of 168) of the signatories of the Paris Agreement.

However, defining the climate impact of different solutions requires accurate scientific measurement and accounting of greenhouse gas mitigation, including how long that benefit lasts. Where we lack accurate measurements and estimates of future durability, we cannot yet rely on NbCS to meet our climate goals.

Assessment of the science on NbCS
Environmental Defense Fund recently worked with experts in academia and other conservation and research institutions to assess the scientific confidence in more than 40 NbCS that have been proposed. The results of that inquiry are both optimistic and sobering.

The four most frequently credited NbCS by the four major carbon credit registries have high scientific confidence – tropical and temperate forest avoided conversion or degradation and reforestation. The confidence of the scientific community in those NbCS supports investing in these as climate solutions and demonstrates that we can develop sufficient understanding of process, measurement, and accounting methods necessary to meet high quality crediting requirements.

However, the experts concluded that 90% (39/42) of the proposed NbCS assessed in the study currently have insufficient scientific evidence for having climate impact we can count on. Within that 90% are NbCS like avoided conversion and degradation of systems as different as mangroves and boreal forests (see below for why).

Promisingly, the experts do have confidence that we can remedy this situation: focused research over the next five years could resolve many of the remaining questions for two-thirds of those pathways. Given that some, like agroforestry, tropical peatland conservation, and biochar additions are also estimated to have large-scale climate impacts, this study provides a roadmap for prioritizing research efforts.

The importance of location
Every NbCS is different, and so are the specific uncertainties and research needs. Prediction of how natural systems may change as the climate changes – affecting their carbon storage and greenhouse gas emissions – is inherently uncertain. We are better at modeling some systems (like tropical forests) than others (like seagrass beds). But all NbCS pathways have something in common – location matters.

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Also posted in Basic Science of Global Warming, Carbon Markets, Forest protection, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Oceans, Plants & Animals, Science / Comments are closed

Clean heat standards: an effective climate policy for the thermal sector

Downtown Boston. Photo: Emmanuel Huybrechts via Wikimedia Commons

This post was co-authored by Chris Neme, Co-Founder and Principal of Energy Futures Group

The concept of a Clean Heat Standard (CHS) is gaining traction in multiple jurisdictions as a way to drive larger, faster reductions in the thermal sector’s greenhouse gas emissions. At least ten U.S. states are considering the policy, with Colorado and Vermont having enacted legislation and Massachusetts and Maryland considering a CHS regulation.

A new report commissioned by Environmental Defense Fund and prepared by Energy Futures Group provides an overview of key design elements that can be used for a CHS, as well as a look at how four states are approaching these elements in their own CHS development process.

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Also posted in Cities and states, Energy, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Partners for Change, Policy / Comments are closed

EDF’s new report looks at Non-Pipeline Alternatives to meet energy needs

(This post was written by EDF’s Magdalen Sullivan and Erin Murphy. It was originally posted here)

Many states are adopting declining emission limits as a way to address the severe and growing dangers of the climate crisis, and that means state utility regulators are grappling with how to decarbonize energy systems, manage costs, and meet demand.

Traditional approaches to meeting energy demand with natural gas have included pipeline construction, pipeline replacement, or large gas system upgrades – but these may no longer be appropriate investments in light of new policies and changing customer preferences.

Instead, increasingly popular options are Non-Pipeline Alternatives – or NPAs. They are projects designed to meet energy demand without expensive infrastructure projects that run counter to state climate goals.

EDF has a new report, Non-Pipeline Alternatives: Meeting Energy Demand Responsibly, that has guidance and analysis to help states develop regulatory frameworks for NPA evaluation and implementation, and to help utilities successfully implement NPA programs.

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Posted in News / Comments are closed

As it enters its eleventh year, California’s cap-and-trade program continues to raise revenue to fight the climate crisis

This blog was co-authored by Katelyn Roedner Sutter, California State Director 

Results of the latest Western Climate Initiative auction were released today, and we continue to see strong demand for allowances. This was the first quarterly auction of 2024, and it was a strong start for this marquee climate program.

This auction is expected to generate roughly $1.31 billion for the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which will invest in projects around the state that electrify transportation, reduce household energy costs, strengthen resilience to natural disasters, and more. This funding comes at a crucial time, as California faces both ongoing impacts from climate change and a challenging budget year.

February auction results

  • All 51.2 million current vintage allowances offered for sale were purchased, resulting in the 14th consecutive sold-out auction. This is 11% or 6.4 million fewer allowances than were offered at the previous auction.
  • The current auction settled at a record price of $41.76, $17.72 above the $24.04 floor price and $3.03 above the November 2023 settlement price of $38.73.
  • All of the 7.2 million future vintage allowances offered for sale were purchased — these allowances can be used for compliance beginning in 2027. This is about 366,000 allowances fewer than were offered at the previous advance auction.
  • Future vintage allowances settled at $41.00, $16.96 above the $24.04 floor price and $3.60 above the November settlement price of $37.40.

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Also posted in California, Carbon Markets, Cities and states, Greenhouse Gas Emissions / Comments are closed

Want to understand Natural Climate Solutions Crediting? We have a handbook for that.

Cover image of the Natural Climate Solutions Crediting Handbook

The Natural Climate Solutions Crediting Handbook

This blog was authored by Christine Gerbode, EDF’s Manager of Jurisdictional Alliances and Britta Johnston, Senior Policy Analyst for Natural Climate Solutions at EDF.

Natural climate solutions are essential to achieving our global climate goals. A range of studies suggest that a major global scale-up of NCS activities (that is, ways of protecting, restoring, and better managing ecosystems and working lands) can contribute as much as a third of the climate mitigation needed to keep us on track with global climate goals by 2030. That’s in addition to the many other benefits that NCS can bring to people and the planet.

Well-designed NCS crediting systems can help channel urgently needed finance to the people, communities, and countries that steward natural ecosystems and working landscapes.

But NCS crediting remains controversial, in part because it can be a challenge to understand: new crediting methods, business models, and policy frameworks are evolving quickly at local and international levels, and competing messages come from passionate voices working on all sides. If uncertainty, misunderstandings, and confusion lead to unwarranted mistrust of NCS crediting, well-intentioned actors might be pushed to unnecessarily abandon one of the most powerful potential tools in the climate fight.

Stakeholders across the climate space need urgent help to cut through the noise on NCS crediting. The NCS Crediting Handbook aims to meet this need by clearly laying out how high-quality NCS crediting can work—for credit sellers, for credit buyers, and as part of an effective and ethical global climate response.

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Also posted in Carbon Markets, Forest protection, REDD+ / Comments are closed