A few weeks ago, the Canadian province of Manitoba declared a state of emergency as a result of wildfires, with Manitoba Premier noting “this is the largest evacuation Manitoba will have seen in most peoples’ living memory”. This marked an ominous start to the country’s wildfire season, with about 225 wildfires burning, half of them out of control, by mid-June and some already turning deadly. Canada is not alone in facing a crisis. Wildfires are intensifying in fire-prone areas, and emerging in regions that have never previously grappled with high fire risk. In January, outside the typical fire season, Los Angeles was on fire for weeks. In 2024 alone, countries including Brazil, Bolivia, Peru, the Republic of Congo, Greece, Portugal and Canada battled devastating blazes.
Fire is a natural part of many ecosystems and has been used by humans for tens of thousands of years to manage the ecosystems on which they depend. But the science is clear: climate change is fueling a profound shift in global fire patterns in a growing number of regions. The incidence of catastrophic wildfires is projected to surge by about 5% by 2030, a third by 2050, and over half by century’s end. The increase in severity and intensity of wildfires now ranks among the greatest threats to forests worldwide.
This feeds a vicious feedback loop: more burning means more greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere. These increased emissions accelerate the effects of climate change, leading to more fire-prone regions subject to more intense and severe fires.
A recent World Resources Institute report found that a record-shattering 6.7 million hectares of biodiversity-rich tropical primary forest—the size of Panama–were lost or degraded in 2024, largely due to massive fires. Beyond impact on ecosystem services and damage to biodiversity, this unleashed an estimated 3 gigatons of greenhouse gas emissions, slightly more than India’s annual fossil fuel emissions.
The toll of these fires is not just measured in hectares or gigatons. Wildfires are tearing at the very fabric of communities worldwide, in rural as well as more urbanized settings. In the Amazon, Southeast Asia and beyond, Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities are losing their ancestral territories, threatening their homes, livelihoods and cultural survival. Those living in urban areas are feeling the impact. The damage from the Los Angeles wildfires in 2025 is estimated at $250-$275 billion, exceeding the GDP of many nations. The growing incidence of such severe wildfires doesn’t just impact the natural world – they overwhelm public services, and impact public health.
For decades, catastrophic wildfires have been largely isolated and found in a limited number of regions. To date, much international attention on forest conservation has focused on addressing human activities that result in tropical forest loss such as illegal land clearing or unsustainable agricultural production. Now, as fires escalate the world over, it is time we treat this paradigm shift in fire regimes as an international priority across diverse types of ecosystems.
Of course, there will not be a ‘one-size-fits-all’ magic wand that can effectively address the increase in the frequency and intensity of wildfires in regions around the world. What might work in Canada’s boreal forests will look vastly different from the strategies that will effectively serve California or the Congo basin. But the opportunity to collaborate on building global capacity and solutions to understand and respond appropriately to catastrophic wildfires is one that could benefit countries around the world.
Fortunately, the political will and solutions available to catalyze this shift are coalescing. Numerous countries, from Azerbaijan to Zimbabwe, are highlighting the opportunities for innovative solutions. Brazil, the incoming COP30 President, has indicated that integrated fire management is a key strategic approach for addressing forest loss.
As countries advance plans and set the agenda for COP30, we have an opportunity to pursue an aligned, ambitious agenda to transform global paradigms for effective fire management to meet the growing challenges of catastrophic wildfire. This should include action on:
Enhanced and integrated fire intelligence and data systems. Recent technological developments have the ability to expand access to more precise data to help countries assess risk, respond rapidly, and minimize harm. For example, FireSat, a developing satellite program led by the nonprofit Earth Fire Alliance, is designed to provide the data necessary for near real-time wildfire detection globally and enable faster, more strategic response. It could also inform the development of more effective predictive models to differentiate fires that need to be addressed quickly from those that can build resilience in impacted ecosystems. We need to come together globally to provide seamless data-sharing, integrate data products to form integrated decision-making systems, and build countries’ technical capacity to use these rapidly evolving tools.
More precise science, modeling, and other analytical approaches. As fire regimes change, we need to better understand their behavior and impact across different ecosystems.
Improved international cooperation and transparency. This includes exploring ways to account for fire emissions and total forest loss on countries’ climate ledgers in a supportive, non-punitive manner. What gets measured, gets managed.
Building on existing knowledge, especially from Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities. For example, research spanning over two decades in Western Australia demonstrated significantly improved fire patterns on Aboriginal-owned land under the leadership of Traditional Owner groups. Technical cooperation platforms like the FAO FireHub offer promising avenues to integrate traditional and Indigenous knowledge into other management systems, and to further build local government and tribal capacities for Integrated Fire Management.
Scaling up access to finance; exploring risk-sharing and reduction mechanisms beyond insurance. Transitioning from an “emergency response” mode to building long-term resilience to wildfires will not be cheap—but the cost of inaction is much higher. We need robust economic analyses that can inform implementation of integrated fire management that applies to the “5Rs”: Review and Analysis, Risk Reduction, Readiness, Response to Fires and Recovery. Additional financing for wildfire management could be earmarked under mechanisms like the Green Climate Fund and Global Environment Facility and leverage existing and emerging climate and forest financing instruments, while we also develop ways to attract private investment through tools like parametric insurance and risk-pooling.
The era of treating catastrophic wildfires as isolated crises or seasonal challenges is behind us; the new normal of year-round risk and cascading feedback loops is here, and the well-being of our planet and humanity will require a paradigm shift. If we hope to stem the growing impacts on the economy, human health and well-being, as well as the health of the natural world.
This entails a new management paradigm that combines local flexibility with coordinated global action, mobilizing actions of governments, the private sector, Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities and use of beneficial fire practices, when appropriate, as a tool to avoid out-of-control fires. A model that enables stable and long-term planning, prevention, and fire management, one that harnesses technologies to their full potential and fosters close collaboration.