Climate 411

Beyond numbers: strengthening climate finance through evidence-based impact

By Juan Pablo Hoffmaister / Published: November 8, 2024

As countries discuss a new goal on climate finance at the UN climate conference, COP29, we have an opportunity to boost the impact of every dollar we invest in climate action.  

In climate finance, impact represents the measurable, positive outcomes achieved through climate action—determined by tracking specific metrics like emissions reductions, adaptation results, co-benefits, and the timeliness of fund disbursement. In a recent report on quality climate finance, we argue that we need better evidence to ensure every dollar of finance has better climate impact.  

To measure impact well, we need measurable ways to track contributions to national climate plans (called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), capture both immediate and long-term transformational change, enable learning for future interventions, and help identify scalable successful approaches.  

The evidence gap  Read More »

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10 Trends and Opportunities in the 2024 NDC Synthesis Report 

By Juan Pablo Hoffmaister / Published: October 29, 2024

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) published the NDC Synthesis Report this week. The report assesses the combined impact of nations’ current national climate plans (NDCs) on expected global emissions in 2030, among other measures.

The report concluded that the full implementation of all latest NDCs is estimated to lead to a 5.9 (3.2–8.6) percent emission reduction by 2030 relative to the 2019 level. This falls short of what the planet requires.  

While the emissions gap remains concerning, the latest NDC Synthesis Report reveals important trends and opportunities as countries prepare their next round of climate commitments. These trends point to a growing maturity in climate action planning and implementation, offering pathways to accelerate ambition and action. The synthesis reveals significant momentum in methane abatement, nature-based solutions, agricultural transformation, and ocean protection, though important gaps remain.  

  1. Integrated, Whole-of-Society Climate Action: Countries are increasingly adopting integrated approaches to climate action, with stronger recognition of nature-based solutions and ecosystem-based adaptation. The synthesis shows growing alignment between climate action, biodiversity conservation, and sustainable development objectives. This integration extends to disaster risk reduction and resilience building, suggesting a more comprehensive approach to addressing climate challenges. 
  2. Strengthened Planning and Implementation: The report highlights significant progress in institutional frameworks, with 97% of Parties providing detailed NDC planning processes. Notably, 48% have integrated climate targets into national legislation, while 56% have established specific policy instruments for implementation. The growing institutionalization of climate action – with 88% indicating robust domestic arrangements for coordination and implementation – suggests countries are building stronger foundations for enhanced climate action. 
  3. Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities at the Forefront: A marked shift toward inclusive climate action is evident, with 60% of Parties now acknowledging Indigenous Peoples in their NDCs. Beyond recognition, countries are developing specific support mechanisms, including improved access to finance, capacity building for Indigenous-led climate action, and enhanced market access for Indigenous products. This trend acknowledges both vulnerabilities and the crucial role of traditional knowledge in climate solutions, though opportunities remain for stronger inclusion in decision-making and implementation. 
  4. Market Mechanisms and Article 6 Readiness: Countries demonstrate growing interest in carbon markets and cooperative approaches, with 78% planning to use some form of voluntary cooperation – up from previous years. While 12% make Article 6 use conditional for achieving targets, there’s increasing emphasis on quality criteria, including additionality, permanence, and avoiding double counting. This signals the need for robust frameworks supporting market mechanisms, including clear accounting rules and monitoring systems. 
  5. Methane Action Opportunity for Quick Wins: With 91% of Parties covering methane emissions but only 5% setting specific targets, there’s significant potential for enhanced methane action. Countries identify opportunities across waste management, agriculture, and oil and gas operations. However, implementation gaps in monitoring and measurement need addressing, alongside increased financial and technical support for methane reduction initiatives. 
  6. Feedback loops and impact learning as Strategic Opportunities for Enhancement. While 53% are developing measurement and verification systems, only 3% plan to use feedback for future NDC preparation. This highlights a critical opportunity to strengthen learning and adaptive management in climate action. Enhanced monitoring frameworks could improve effectiveness and support evidence-based policy adjustments. 
  7. Nature-Based Solutions key to climate action: Nearly half of Parties (47%) now include forest protection measures, signaling growing recognition of nature’s role in climate action. The potential is significant – reducing deforestation alone offers 2.28 GtCO2e/year in mitigation potential. While integration of nature-based solutions is increasing, frameworks for wildfire prevention and ecosystem monitoring remain underdeveloped. Enhanced financing mechanisms and stronger coordination between national and local conservation efforts could unlock greater potential in this sector. 
  8. Agricultural Transformation in the horizon. Food security emerges as a critical priority, with 90% of Parties identifying it in adaptation planning, which is consistent with the COP28 Food Declaration. Countries are increasingly adopting sustainable agricultural practices, including crop diversification and improved soil management, often integrating traditional knowledge. However, specific emission targets and monitoring systems for agriculture remain limited. Opportunities exist to strengthen food waste reduction, improve irrigation systems, and develop more resilient food systems through better supply chain integration. 
  9. Ocean Action growing attention: Ocean-related commitments show encouraging growth, with 31% of Parties identifying marine ecosystems as adaptation priorities. Blue carbon initiatives are gaining traction, with 21% of Parties including ocean carbon priorities. While 13% have quantified fisheries targets, gaps persist in marine ecosystem monitoring and financing. Promising opportunities exist in mangrove restoration, marine protected areas expansion, and coastal protection enhancement. 
  10. Adaptation is now integrated into NDCs.  Adaptation has become central to climate action, with 81% of Parties including adaptation components. This reflects a maturing understanding of climate resilience, particularly in key sectors like food security, water resources, and ecosystem management. While 29% of Parties now link adaptation with mitigation co-benefits, implementation gaps remain in financing, monitoring, and cross-sectoral integration. Strengthening these linkages, alongside better alignment with development goals, presents a key opportunity for enhanced climate action. 

The synthesis reveals a maturing climate action landscape with growing emphasis on implementation, inclusion, and integration. While gaps remain, these trends provide a foundation for enhanced ambition and accelerated action in the next round of NDCs. 

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Closing emissions gap with 2025 NDC Revisions: Critical Opportunities for Climate Action

By Juan Pablo Hoffmaister / Published: October 28, 2024

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024 presents stark findings on the state of global climate action. Current pledges would only reduce emissions 4-10% below 2019 levels by 2030 – far short of the 42% reduction needed to limit warming to 1.5°C. These gaps are corroborated by the Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement Synthesis report by the UNFCCC secretariat, which noted that “bolder new climate plans are vital to drive stronger investment, economic growth and opportunity, more jobs, less pollution, better health and lower costs, more secure and affordable clean energy, among many others benefits.”

While these gaps are alarming, we have the solutions to address them. In fact, the report reveals a crucial window of opportunity as countries prepare their next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for submission in 2025. Through immediate, decisive action on NDCs, we can bridge the gap and put ourselves back on track to 1.5. 

Reflecting on the report recommendations, these are three strategic areas to help bridge the gap in countries’ updated NDCs:  

  • First, comprehensive investment planning must become central to NDC development. Countries should include detailed project pipelines that identify specific, bankable projects aligned with sectoral transformation pathways. These plans should outline clear implementation timelines, risk mitigation strategies, and resource requirements. Critically, they must demonstrate how public finance can leverage private investment at the necessary scale.  
  • Second, NDCs must strengthen coverage and transparency across all sectors and gases. Particular attention should focus on methane emissions, where rapid reductions could have immediate climate benefits. Many countries have encouragingly incorporated methane into their NDCs – the 2024 NDC synthesis reports suggests that 91% of parties cover methane within their mitigation targets. However, only 5% of parties have specific quantified methane targets, demonstrating a significant area for improvement. 
  • Third, countries must reimagine climate finance through a just transition lens. This means moving beyond simple volume targets to emphasize finance quality: its accessibility, predictability, and alignment with development priorities. For developing economies, which require an eight to sixteenfold increase in climate investment by 2030, NDCs should clearly distinguish between unconditional actions and those requiring international support. They should also outline specific measures to ensure transitions benefit vulnerable communities and workers. 

Elements for NDC enhancement in 2025

The upcoming NDC revision cycle is a rare opportunity to fundamentally reshape climate ambition and action. By focusing on these three areas – comprehensive investment planning, enhanced sectoral coverage and transparency, and quality climate finance for just transitions – countries can develop NDCs that not only raise ambition but also chart practical pathways for implementation. 

The solutions and financing approaches exist to close the emissions gap. What’s needed now is the political will to deploy them at unprecedented speed and scale through this critical NDC revision process. 

 

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To meet our climate goals, we need climate plans backed by science and economics

By Juan Pablo Hoffmaister / Published: September 30, 2024

As countries make their way to Baku, Azerbaijan to attend COP29, the annual United National climate conference, we have a clear challenge. Currently, the climate commitments made by countries are not ambitious enough to achieve the goals set out in the Paris Agreement to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

COP29 is our moment to meet this challenge head-on, where countries can align on what needs to happen to meet our global climate goals.

Next year, countries will update their national climate plans under the Paris Agreement for 2025-2030—and the urgency to accelerate climate action has never been clearer.  These climate plans are called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and they need to be ambitious enough to meet the pace and scale demanded by science. 

Building on global lessons and efforts towards global solutions 

Responding to this global call, the NDC Partnership and the Green Climate Fund (GCF) launched a joint Climate Investment Planning and Mobilization Framework. The Framework aims to create a common language for diverse stakeholders to communicate priorities, needs, and challenges in mobilizing climate finance. 

This framework underscores the fundamental importance of strong evidence-based decision-making in revising and enhancing NDCs. Commitments need to be ambitious—but  also realistic, achievable, and aligned with the latest scientific understanding of climate change and its impacts.  

At Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), we believe in working and building on the efforts of partners. For decades we have worked to bridge science, economics and policy to drive forward practical solutions to some of our thorniest challenges, from cutting methane pollution to halting deforestation, which puts us on. We’re working to build on this record of advancing science and economics-backed NDCs by contributing new research, innovative tools, and solutions that are grounded in evidence, which uniquely positions us to Use evidence-based decisions for NDC 3.0 Revisions.  

How to Use Evidence-based Decision-Making for Impactful NDC Revisions  Read More »

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Lessons learned: New climate and biodiversity funds don’t need to start from scratch

By Juan Pablo Hoffmaister / Published: June 20, 2024

By Juan Pablo Hoffmaister, Associate Vice President, Global Climate Cooperation, and Zach Cohen, Senior Analyst, Global Climate Cooperation 

As we face the triple planetary crisis of climate change, air pollution, and biodiversity loss, the need for urgent and united action is undeniable. Addressing these linked challenges demands more than just ambition—it requires collaboration, guided by the principle of complementarity. This approach emphasizes working together in harmony to achieve greater effectiveness and sustainability in our efforts to protect the planet.  Read More »

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Bonn 2024: Laying the Groundwork for Global Climate Action from Baku to Belém

By Juan Pablo Hoffmaister / Published: May 31, 2024

Authored by Juan Pablo Hoffmaister, Associate Vice President for Global Engagement at Environmental Defense Fund 

The international climate community is convening in Bonn, Germany, for the 60th sessions of the Subsidiary Bodies of the UNFCCC this June—and they will set the tone for the next year of global climate engagement. The sessions in Bonn are a vital mid-year checkpoint and a precursor to COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. 

Discussions in Bonn, hosted at the UNFCCC headquarters, will prepare for the critical negotiations that will unfold in Baku and subsequently in Belém, Brazil, at COP30. 

Although this year’s COP29 is projected to be smaller in scale than past years due to spatial and financial constraints, it will be no less consequential: Participating countries must come together to finalize a critical agreement: the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance. This new finance goal is anticipated to significantly shape how countries can realistically implement their new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)–each country’s national climate commitments—due in 2025.  

Given the major milestones lined up for COP29 and COP30, the June sessions in Bonn need to set the tone for heightened ambition and climate progress, especially on the complexities of climate finance, policy coherence, and equity. 

Here are our top themes to watch during Bonn, and how EDF is working to support a positive outcome: 

Setting a New Climate Finance Goal

The NCQG will be essential for enabling effective climate action globally, with a strong focus on supporting the needs and priorities of developing countries. As negotiations unfold, the objective is clear: to promote ambitious and achievable financial commitments that will help scale climate action and provide a clear trajectory toward the 2025 NDCs and beyond. 

By establishing this new finance goal, the international community seeks to ensure that every country has the necessary support to implement effective climate solutions, thereby fostering a more equitable global approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation. 

  • EDF is actively participating in the dialogues around the new goal, and submitted suggestions calling for ambitious, quality financial commitments and a transparent process to support effective implementation of the goal. 

Ensuring Equity in Climate Action

A significant focus will also be on the Just Transition Work Programme, which aims to embed the principles of a just transition into global climate policy frameworks. It’s about ensuring that the shift towards a low-carbon future is equitable, supporting sustainable development that benefits all sectors of society without leaving anyone behind. 

  • EDF recently published our Just Transition and Safeguards Framework, which offers a roadmap for countries and companies alike to successfully navigate the complexities of transitioning to clean energy while ensuring fairness and equity at every step of the way. We’ll be working to socialize the EDF framework’s guidance as countries engaged in the Just Transition Work Programme continue their deliberations. 

Accelerating Action on Food & Agriculture

Food was on the table at COP28, as the conference opened with a declaration on sustainable agriculture, resilient food systems, and climate action endorsed by 159 countries. Negotiations will resume with renewed momentum in Bonn. The goal is to accelerate action on climate resilient practices that ensure food security and address environmental impacts effectively by 2025, and to review and enhance country commitments, including through enhancing NDCs, developing specific investment pipelines, and unlocking various forms of finance. 

  • EDF is engaging with stakeholders and partners aiming to accelerate both climate mitigation and adaptation in the global food and agriculture sector through finance. This includes supporting farmers’ livelihoods, climate-resilient food systems, and environmental protection. 

Making Progress on Article 6: Advancing Cooperative Implementation

While there was a lack of progress on Article 6 forms and reporting procedures at COP28, implementation of the mechanism is proceeding at the national level. This year, we’ve already seen the first notifications of transactions under article 6.2 continue to deliver high-integrity climate action. Since COP28, countries aiming to work together on climate action through carbon markets have signed 13 new bilateral agreements. 

Efforts to operationalize Article 6.4 will focus on key decisions left over from COP28, particularly on the development of methodological guidance and on the crediting of removals under this mechanism. The Article 6.4 Supervisory Board has made progress since COP28 on other significant issues, such as the consideration of sustainable development benefits and the establishment of a grievances and appeals procedure, heralding potential renewed willingness to reach solutions from different negotiating partners. 

Establishing robust international market and non-market cooperative approaches will be essential for funding and facilitating global climate action, aiming to overcome previous impasses and enhance economic sustainability.  

  • While EDF will be monitoring Article 6 developments closely, our active engagement will be shaped by the progress and direction of these discussions. We aim to ensure Article 6 can serve as a high-integrity tool to deliver an efficient flow of financial capital from the Global North to the Global South to meet their Paris Agreement goals. Read more about our Article 6 perspective here.  

Treating Our Oceans as Critical Allies in Climate Mitigation

Discussions in Bonn will also cover marine biodiversity conservation, coastal resilience, and innovative financing for ocean-based climate solutions, recognizing the integral role of oceans in the broader climate regulation framework.  

  • EDF plans to participate in the oceans and climate change process, building on our involvement in the climate action outcomes related to oceans at COP28. We worked in partnership with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to announce the Aquatic Food Breakthrough for 2030: a goal to provide at least US$ 4 billion per year to support resilient aquatic food systems that will contribute to healthy, regenerative ecosystems and sustain the food and nutrition security for three billion people.  

Strengthening Partnerships with all Actors

Participating countries are not the only ones responsible for climate action: progress depends on cooperation with all non-state actors. That is the ethos of the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MP-GCA), a platform for coordinated climate action between governments and non-state actors like companies, communities, Indigenous Peoples, faith communities, and more. In the MP-GCA, High-Level Champions (HLCs) lead efforts to turn ideas into action and foster collaboration on projects that can seriously reduce greenhouse gas emissions and make the world more resilient to climate change impacts. 

  • At EDF, we share this “everyone in” mentality: we believe in activating everyone on climate, from businesses to communities to governments. In Bonn, EDF will focus on our work with the High-Level Champions (HLCs) and the sectoral leads of the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MP-GCA). By collaborating with other non-state actors and the private sector, EDF aims to drive collective progress and amplify our impact on global climate initiatives. 

The Road to COP30: Making it to Belem, Brazil

As we move from these Bonn climate talks to COP29 in Baku and onward to COP30 in Brazil, the discussions set the stage for crucial global climate action. These negotiations, enriched by Brazil’s focus on nature and forests, are pivotal as they coincide with significant global environmental conventions, including the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), with its own COP happening in October in Colombia. Each conference is an opportunity to forge policies that harness natural ecosystems for climate mitigation and adaptation. 

  • During Bonn, EDF will be engaged in discussions on forest conservation efforts through the Jurisdictional REDD+ Technical Assistance Partnership (JTAP), an initiative to support jurisdictions and local partners to participate in high-integrity voluntary carbon markets to catalyze tropical forest conservation and finance at scale.  

A successful outcome at COP depends on incremental collective progress throughout the year. Bonn is a critical moment to connect the dots between the upcoming moments for global climate engagement. Whether discussions focus on biodiversity, desertification, finance or just transition, weaving together the common threads and finding the synergies between them is key to taking actions that solve for multiple problems and benefit climate, communities, and ecosystems all at once.  

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