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With anticipated environmental rollbacks at the federal level, the U.S. needs states to act on climate in order to make progress towards the nation’s 2030 commitments. Luckily, there are already signs of momentum. A landslide victory in Washington state to protect its climate law sends a hopeful message that ambitious climate action at the state level is not only possible — it’s popular. This result in Washington should give state leaders across the country confidence to move forward with bold action at a moment when it’s needed the most. Here’s what to know about the power of state-level action and a few highlights to watch out for in 2025.
We’ve been here before
U.S. Climate Alliance
After Trump was elected in 2016, he withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement — an international framework aimed at fighting climate change by reducing greenhouse gas pollution. In response to this blow to climate action, several states banded together to create the U.S. Climate Alliance, a group that currently consists of 22 states and 2 territories that have committed to achieving their part of the U.S. 2030 goal, to keep the nation moving forward.
In November of this year, following another Trump election, the U.S. Climate Alliance reaffirmed that commitment. The Alliance’s goals are significant, as the group represents nearly 60% of the U.S. economy, more than half of the country’s population and roughly 43% of net GHG emissions. This means that, if climate leadership states were able to achieve their climate goals, they’d be able to move the entire country closer to our 2030 climate goal.
While 22 states have climate commitments, less than half have binding, economy-wide targets and even fewer are on-track to achieve those goals. A 2023 EDF analysis found that leadership states are unlikely to achieve their 2025 target levels and projected to only secure a 23%-38% reduction by 2030 — far short of the 50% commitment.
But the next two years represent a crucial window of opportunity to course correct. Over two-thirds of these states have gubernatorial elections in 2026, and time is running out to implement policies that can impact U.S. emissions by 2030. If all states that have pledged reductions in line with the national 2030 target actually achieved their goals, the U.S. could slash its emissions gap by over 50% — and expectations are rapidly increasing for states to deliver these reductions.
Washington state’s impact on state-led climate action
One of the states with a binding, economy-wide target is Washington — and it’s one of even fewer states with the necessary policies and regulations in place to achieve those targets. Washington’s cap-and-invest program was established in 2021 through the Climate Commitment Act, which is the nation’s most ambitious climate policy to date. Washington’s climate law puts a “cap” on how much pollution the state’s entire economy emits and ensures that the cap declines over time to align with the state’s emissions targets. It also puts a price on climate pollution, which means polluters covered by the program have to pay for every ton of pollution they pump into the atmosphere. The funds raised from the program are then used to “invest” back into Washington communities.
This “cap-and-invest” program has raised over $2 billion for investments like Tribal clean energy grants, free public transit for young people under 18, home energy and appliance rebates, EV charging sites, air quality monitoring in overburdened communities and more. The Climate Commitment Act also has the potential to create more than 40,000 new jobs and $9 billion in economic output over the next decade — benefits that will reach every region of the state. With its program intact, Washington can continue to make investments to jumpstart a clean energy economy while supporting climate resilience and improving local air quality.
When a dangerous, misleading ballot measure this past November threatened to repeal this landmark program along with the billions of dollars of investments in generates, voters in Washington showed just how popular ambitious climate action is, with 62% of voters choosing to defend cap-and-invest, outperforming both the gubernatorial and presidential races. What’s more, over 500 organizations and Tribal Nations in Washington came together to defend the cap-and-invest program, representing communities all across the state of Washington, including labor unions, environmental groups, local community organizations, Tribes, businesses and more. This coalition sent a clear message about the breadth and diversity of support for such programs that deliver meaningfully for communities and provide an affordable approach to climate mitigation for households and businesses. Given the federal election results, this critical example of the role U.S. states can play in delivering significant and durable emission reductions through state-level pollution caps takes on even greater importance.
This decisive victory for climate is a huge win for Washingtonians who will get to see the benefits of this emissions-reducing, investment-generating program — and it’s also a win for state-level climate action more broadly.
With the Climate Commitment Act secure, Washington can continue to work towards linking its program with those in California and Quebec — a move that would likely stabilize the market in the long term and open the door for more program ambition. Washington’s legislature passed a bill earlier this year that made changes to the program that could ultimately facilitate linkage, and the Department of Ecology is now undertaking a rulemaking on the implementation of those changes.
State leaders who are considering similar policies can capitalize on the momentum from Washington and move forward with the kind of ambitious, effective climate action that the U.S. badly needs, and that voters clearly want.
Looking forward to future state action
New York
New York is poised to step up as a climate leader by establishing a cap-and-invest program of its own. New York State’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) was signed into law in 2019, during the first Trump administration. Its goals were appropriately ambitious, but the regulations needed to achieve the law’s emissions targets are not yet in place. A bold cap-and-invest program could be a centerpiece of the state’s approach to cutting climate pollution in line with its targets.
New York’s climate plan recommended cap-and-invest because the program would set an enforceable, declining cap on climate pollution in line with the state’s targets. At the same time, it would invest billions in economic and health benefits in communities across the state while speeding up the clean energy transition. Preliminary analysis from state agencies suggests the program could raise between $3-5 billion in its first year, with at least 35% — with a goal of 40% — required to benefit disadvantaged communities. The program is also expected to return a third of revenues directly to households and small businesses.
Leaders in New York are expected to take the next step towards program implementation by releasing draft rules for cap-and-invest by the end of this year. As they do so, Washington’s recent ballot results send a clear message: voters support bold cap-and-invest programs that tackle the climate crisis head on. New York leaders can and should build on Washington’s momentum with a strong, ambitious program matching the bar set by the Evergreen state.
California
California has been a leader on state-level climate action for over a decade. California’s cap-and-trade program, which inspired the program in Washington, has been operating since 2013 and has successfully reduced year-on-year emissions from nearly every sector covered by the program. Cap-and-trade acts as a backstop, or insurance policy, on California’s emissions targets in the 2022 Scoping Plan to reduce emissions 48% below 1990 levels by 2030. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) is expected to begin a formal rulemaking in early 2025 to increase the ambition of the cap-and-trade program to align with that more ambitious target. Furthermore, the California state legislature is expected to begin considering program reauthorization for cap-and-trade beyond 2030. With a rulemaking and reauthorization both on the table for 2025, California has huge opportunities to cement its legacy as a climate leader by making this program as ambitious and effective as possible.
Also, as previously noted, California is pursuing linking its cap-and-trade program with Washington state’s — a move that could unlock faster and deeper cuts in climate pollution and further build momentum for state action.
The revenue from cap-and-trade in California also serves as a critical backstop against federal backsliding on climate. Last month, Governor Newsom announced that if the Trump Administration follows through on its threat to eliminate the federal tax credit for zero-emission vehicles, California will step in to provide a state rebate. This kind of leadership is possible because of the revenue generated by cap-and-trade
This leadership from New York and California is significant because just these states achieving their targets could close the entire nation’s emissions gap to the 2030 goal by up to 15%.
Other states looking to lead
Beyond New York, California, and Washington, many other states are exploring pathways to achieve their own climate goals. For instance, northeast climate leadership states including Maryland and Vermont are considering economy-wide cap-and-invest programs as part of their strategies.
At the same time, states across the northeast participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative — a cap-and-invest program targeting emissions from power plants — are working to strengthen this regional program. EDF has been advocating for new rules to set emissions limits in line with the ambition necessary from the power sector to achieve our economy-wide goals.
In the West, New Mexico legislators are advancing a bill to establish economy-wide pollution reduction targets and processes for initiating the kinds of regulations needed to meet them. These and other efforts should be buoyed by the results in Washington state.
Washington’s win is more than a state victory; it’s a rallying cry for the entire nation. As states like New York, California and others prepare to lead, Washington’s success sends a powerful message: voters want real climate action. By implementing and defending bold programs like cap-and-invest, states can bridge the gap to the nation’s 2030 climate commitments while demonstrating the transformative potential of state-led leadership. Together, these states can pave the way for a healthier, more sustainable future and inspire global progress when it’s needed most.