California’s latest cap-and-invest auction reflects growing market confidence and progress towards linkage

Results were released today for the year’s third auction of the California-Québec carbon market, known as the Western Climate Initiative.

August auction results

• All 49,016,180 current vintage allowances (emission allowances valid for compliance this year) offered for sale were purchased, resulting in a fifth consecutive sold-out auction for this market.
• Prices for current vintage allowances settled at $32.48, $3.67 above the last quarterly auction, which settled at $28.81.
• Future vintage allowances settled at $32.75, $3.99 above the last quarterly auction where they settled at $28.76.
• This auction is expected to generate roughly $870 million for the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund.

What could be at play with these results

Today’s results, which come from the first auction since the California Air Resources Board finalized updates to the Cap-and-Invest program in May, reflect somewhat increased market confidence. The slightly higher settlement price seen today may indicate a positive response to the greater regulatory certainty provided by the finalization of these rules, even as debate in the Legislature continues over specific elements of the package.

Stronger prices are also good news for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund revenue. The past year-plus of soft demand, with auctions repeatedly settling at or near the price floor, has cost the state billions of dollars in revenue that would otherwise flow to critical investments in communities, household bill rebates, climate resilience programs, electrification incentives and more.

Linkage on the horizon

As California looks forward, it has another key opportunity to strengthen its impact in delivering greenhouse gas reductions and to re-establish California as a leader on impactful, economically efficient climate policy. For the past few years, California, Washington and Québec have been assessing and working toward linking their carbon markets into a tri-jurisdictional program. Linkage would create one joint program and marketplace in which covered entities in any of the linked jurisdictions can buy or trade emissions allowances.

Since the May auction, California, Québec and Washington took the important step of signing a joint linkage agreement, a major milestone in the process of operationalizing the largest subnational carbon market in the world. By joining forces across state and province lines, these three jurisdictions can create a larger, more stable and more efficient market which is projected to deliver greater regional emissions cuts compared to an unlinked market.

Washington’s linkage rulemaking process is expected to wrap up in September of this year, and California must take similar regulatory steps to make California’s market operationally ready to link with Washington. Governor Newsom must make the “SB 1018 findings”, essentially certifying that the state meets necessary requirements for linkage, and the California Air Resources Board must then undertake their own rulemaking process so that California’s market can formally accept allowances from Washington entities.

As Governor Newsom nears the end of his final term in California, making these findings and directing the California Air Resources Board to swiftly take up the linkage rulemaking is his opportunity to underscore his legacy as a Governor who not only champions climate policy, but has the leadership to strengthen the state’s landmark program and scale it beyond California’s borders.