The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024 presents stark findings on the state of global climate action. Current pledges would only reduce emissions 4-10% below 2019 levels by 2030 – far short of the 42% reduction needed to limit warming to 1.5°C. These gaps are corroborated by the Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement Synthesis report by the UNFCCC secretariat, which noted that “bolder new climate plans are vital to drive stronger investment, economic growth and opportunity, more jobs, less pollution, better health and lower costs, more secure and affordable clean energy, among many others benefits.”
While these gaps are alarming, we have the solutions to address them. In fact, the report reveals a crucial window of opportunity as countries prepare their next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for submission in 2025. Through immediate, decisive action on NDCs, we can bridge the gap and put ourselves back on track to 1.5.
Reflecting on the report recommendations, these are three strategic areas to help bridge the gap in countries’ updated NDCs:
- First, comprehensive investment planning must become central to NDC development. Countries should include detailed project pipelines that identify specific, bankable projects aligned with sectoral transformation pathways. These plans should outline clear implementation timelines, risk mitigation strategies, and resource requirements. Critically, they must demonstrate how public finance can leverage private investment at the necessary scale.
- Second, NDCs must strengthen coverage and transparency across all sectors and gases. Particular attention should focus on methane emissions, where rapid reductions could have immediate climate benefits. Many countries have encouragingly incorporated methane into their NDCs – the 2024 NDC synthesis reports suggests that 91% of parties cover methane within their mitigation targets. However, only 5% of parties have specific quantified methane targets, demonstrating a significant area for improvement.
- Third, countries must reimagine climate finance through a just transition lens. This means moving beyond simple volume targets to emphasize finance quality: its accessibility, predictability, and alignment with development priorities. For developing economies, which require an eight to sixteenfold increase in climate investment by 2030, NDCs should clearly distinguish between unconditional actions and those requiring international support. They should also outline specific measures to ensure transitions benefit vulnerable communities and workers.
The upcoming NDC revision cycle is a rare opportunity to fundamentally reshape climate ambition and action. By focusing on these three areas – comprehensive investment planning, enhanced sectoral coverage and transparency, and quality climate finance for just transitions – countries can develop NDCs that not only raise ambition but also chart practical pathways for implementation.
The solutions and financing approaches exist to close the emissions gap. What’s needed now is the political will to deploy them at unprecedented speed and scale through this critical NDC revision process.