Arctic Ice Shrinking Unexpectedly Fast

The author of today’s post, Sheryl Canter, is an Online Writer and Editorial Manager at Environmental Defense.

Researchers have been expecting Arctic ice to melt and shrink, but not this fast! The National Snow and Ice Data Center, part of the University of Colorado at Boulder, reports that Arctic sea ice has shrunk to a 29-year low, significantly below the previous record low set in 2005.

August Ice Extent

In September 2007, the Northwest Passage, a direct shipping route from Europe to Asia that explorers sought for centuries, was ice-free for the first time since satellite records began.

As of September 16, sea ice extent was 1,590,000 square miles, surpassing the previous one-day record of September 20–21, 2005, by more than 461,000 square miles – roughly the size of California and Texas combined.

Satellite - Sep 1979 and Sep 2007

Arctic ice extent from satellite photos. The picture on the left was taken in September 1979; the picture on the right was taken on September 9, 2007. Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

NASA scientists are struggling to explain the sudden drop. Arctic ice cover can vary quite a bit from year to year, and this year’s weather did encourage melting. There were unusually clear skies, warm winds from the south, and winds and currents moved ice out of the Arctic Ocean next to Greenland. But natural variations don’t account for the huge magnitude of the drop. Global warming is the primary cause of this year’s record low sea ice, as well as the significant decreases over the past few decades – that much is clear. But scientists still aren’t sure why the ice cover is shrinking so much faster than predicted.

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One Comment

  1. Posted October 4, 2007 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

    One of the hardest things to understand is data that contradicts a personal prediction. Whether it is “good” or “bad” makes no difference, we think it is simply WRONG!
    Maybe, all factors listed: “unusually clear skies, warm winds from the south, and winds and currents moved ice out of the Arctic” combined in the worst combination seen up to now, not necessarily the worst possible combination.

    Would it take courage to conclude that for the first time, we will see CUMMULATIVE effects in the Arctic? The first proof of Global Warming, as such?
    Up to now, we assume winter restores the polar caps back to “normal” and by next Spring, the ice cap photos will look identical to what they looked at the start of Spring 2007. I await silence or words in response.

    But, to students of heat transfer, given the mass of ocean, will accept that, sometime, cooling or heating trends will reach the point beyond which they will NOT fully recover to the previously normal, long term, levels.

    We shall know and see the truth by next Spring, just in time for Presidential Election on February 5th, 2008. Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen.
    Will we have the first solid evidence of Cummulative Global Warming effects in satellite photos by the California Presidential Primaries?

    Side issue: Will there be a candidate that “questions” the possibility of Global Warming, with no plans to fight Glabal Warming, “if proved true during my Presidency?”