{"id":754,"date":"2015-07-17T22:09:23","date_gmt":"2015-07-18T03:09:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/markets\/?p=754"},"modified":"2015-07-17T20:11:21","modified_gmt":"2015-07-18T01:11:21","slug":"what-we-know-and-what-we-dont-about-global-warming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/markets\/2015\/07\/17\/what-we-know-and-what-we-dont-about-global-warming\/","title":{"rendered":"What we know \u2014 and what we don\u2019t \u2014 about global warming"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>By Gernot Wagner and Martin L. Weitzman:<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Two quick questions:<\/p>\n<p>Do you think climate change is an urgent problem?<\/p>\n<p>Do you think getting the world off fossil fuels is difficult?<\/p>\n<p>This is how our book \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.climateshock.org\">Climate Shock<\/a>\u201d begins.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, it\u2019s not our quiz. Robert Socolow from Princeton has posed versions of these questions for a while. The result is usually the same: most people answer \u201cYes\u201d to one or the other question, but not to both. You are either one or the other: an \u201cenvironmentalist\u201d or perhaps, a self-described \u201crealist.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Such answers are somewhat understandable, especially when looking at the polarized politics around global warming. They are also both wrong. Climate change is incredibly urgent and difficult to solve.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"The economic options for combatting climate change\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/9VMR-S3jTzI?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>What we know is bad<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Last time concentrations of carbon dioxide were as high as they are today \u2014 400 parts per million \u2014 we had sea levels that were between 20 to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/content\/349\/6244\/aaa4019\">at least 66 feet higher<\/a> than today.<\/p>\n<p>It doesn\u2019t take much to imagine what another foot or two will do. And sea levels at least 20 feet above where they are today? That\u2019s largely outside our imagination.<\/p>\n<p>This won\u2019t happen overnight. Sea levels will rise over decades, centuries and perhaps even millennia. That\u2019s precisely what makes climate change such an immense challenge. It\u2019s more long-term, more global, more irreversible and also more uncertain than most other problems facing us. The combination of all of these things make climate change <a href=\"http:\/\/ensia.com\/voices\/how-does-climate-stack-up-against-other-worst-case-scenarios\/\">uniquely problematic<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What we don\u2019t know makes it potentially much worse<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Climate change is beset with deep-seated uncertainties on top of deep-seated uncertainties on top of still more deep-seated uncertainties. And that\u2019s just if you consider the links between carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, eventual temperature increases and economic damages.<\/p>\n<p>Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide are bound to lead to an increase in temperatures. That much is clear. The question is how much.<\/p>\n<p>The parameter that gives us the answer to this all-important question is \u201cclimate sensitivity.\u201d That describes what happens to eventual global average temperatures as concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere double. Nailing down that parameter has been an epic challenge.<\/p>\n<p>Ever since the late 1970s, we\u2019ve had estimates hovering at around 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit. In fact, the \u201clikely\u201d range is around 5.5 degrees plus-minus almost three degrees.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s worrisome here is that since the late 1970s that range hasn\u2019t narrowed. In the past 35 years, we\u2019ve seen dramatic improvements in many aspects of climate science, but the all-important link between concentrations and temperatures is still the same.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s more worrisome still is that we can\u2019t be sure we won\u2019t end up outside the range. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calls the range \u201clikely.\u201d So by definition, anything outside it is \u201cunlikely.\u201d But that doesn\u2019t make it zero probability.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, we have around a 10 percent chance that eventual global average temperature increases will exceed 11 degrees Fahrenheit, given where the world is heading in terms of carbon dioxide emissions. That\u2019s huge, to put it mildly, both in probability and in temperature increases.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_2538\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2538\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/gwagner.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Figure-3.2-640x271.png\" alt=\"Climate Shock graph. There\u2019s at least about a 10 percent chance of global average temperatures increasing 11 degrees Fahrenheit or more. Source: Climate Shock (Princeton 2015), reprinted with permission.\" width=\"640\" height=\"271\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-2538\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-2538\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Climate Shock graph. There\u2019s at least about a 10 percent chance of global average temperatures increasing 11 degrees Fahrenheit or more. Source: Climate Shock (Princeton 2015), reprinted with permission.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>We take out car, fire and property insurances for much lower probabilities. Here we are talking about the whole planet, and we haven\u2019t shown willingness to insure ourselves. Meanwhile, we can, in fact, look at 11 degrees Fahrenheit and liken it to the planet \u2018burning\u2019. Think of it as your body temperature: 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit is normal. Anything above 99.5 degrees Fahrenheit is a fever. Above 104 degrees Fahrenheit is life-threatening. Above 109.4 degrees Fahrenheit and you are dead or at least unconscious.<\/p>\n<p>In planetary dimensions, warming of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit is so bad as to have been enshrined as a political threshold not to be crossed. Going to 11 degrees Fahrenheit is so far outside the realm of anything imaginable, we can simply call it a planetary catastrophe. It would surely be a planet none of us would recognize. Go back to sea levels somewhere between 20 and at least 66 feet higher than today, at today\u2019s concentrations of carbon dioxide. How much worse can it get?<\/p>\n<p>Do we know for sure that we are facing a 1-in-10 chance unless the world changes its course? No, we don\u2019t, and we can\u2019t. One thing though is clear: because the extreme downside is so threatening, the burden of proof ought to be on those who argue that these extreme scenarios don\u2019t matter and that any possible damages are low. So how then can we guide policy with all this talk about \u201cnot knowing\u201d?<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s your number?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We can begin to insure ourselves from climate change by pricing emissions. How? By charging <a href=\"http:\/\/ensia.com\/voices\/pay-now-or-pay-more-later\/\">at least $40 per ton<\/a> of carbon dioxide pollution. That\u2019s the U.S. government\u2019s current value and central estimate of the costs caused by one ton of carbon dioxide pollution emitted today.<\/p>\n<p>We know that $40 per ton is an imperfect number. We are pretty sure it\u2019s an underestimate; we are confident it\u2019s not an overestimate. But it\u2019s also all we have. (And it\u2019s a lot higher than the prevailing price in most places that do have a carbon price right now\u2014from California to the European Union. The sole exception is Sweden, where the price is upward of $130. And even there, key sectors are exempt.)<\/p>\n<p>How then do we decide on the proper climate policy? The answer is more complex than our rough cost-benefit analysis suggests. Pricing carbon at $40 a ton is a start, but it\u2019s only that. Any cost-benefit analysis relies on a number of assumptions \u2014 perhaps too many \u2014 to come up with one single dollar estimate based on one representative model. And with something as large and uncertain as climate change, such assumptions are intrinsically flawed.<\/p>\n<p>Since we know that the extreme possibilities can dominate the final outcome, the decision criterion ought to focus on avoiding these kinds of catastrophic damages in the first place. Some call this a \u201cprecautionary principle\u201d\u2014 better to be safe than sorry. Others call it a variant of \u201cPascal\u2019s Wager\u201d \u2014 why should we risk it if the punishment is eternal damnation? We call it a \u201cDismal Dilemma.\u201d While extremes can dominate the analysis, how can we know the relevant probabilities of rare extreme scenarios that we have not previously observed and whose dynamics we only crudely understand at best? The true numbers are largely unknown and may simply be unknowable.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Planetary risk management<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In the end, this is all about risk management\u2014existential risk management. Precaution is a prudent stance when uncertainties about catastrophic risks are as dominant as they are here. Cost-benefit analysis is important, but it alone may be inadequate, simply because of the fuzziness involved with analyzing high-temperature impacts.<\/p>\n<p>Climate change belongs to a rare category of situations where it\u2019s extraordinarily difficult to put meaningful boundaries on the extent of possible planetary damages. Focusing on getting precise estimates of the damages associated with eventual global average warming of 7, 9 or 11 degrees Fahrenheit misses the point.<\/p>\n<p>The appropriate price on carbon dioxide is one that will make us comfortable that the world will never heat up another 11 degrees and that we won\u2019t see its accompanying catastrophes. Never, of course, is a strong word, since even today\u2019s atmospheric concentrations have a small chance of causing eventual extreme temperature rise.<\/p>\n<p>One thing we know for sure is that a greater than 10 percent chance of the earth\u2019s eventual warming of 11 degrees Fahrenheit or more \u2014 the end of the human adventure on this planet as we now know it \u2014 is too high. And that\u2019s the path the planet is on at the moment. With the immense longevity of atmospheric carbon dioxide, continuing to \u201cwait and see\u201d would amount to nothing else than willful blindness.<\/p>\n<p><em>First published by PBS NewsHour&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/making-sense\/know-dont-global-warming\/\" target=\"_blank\">Making Sen$e<\/a> with Paul Solman. The accompanying <a href=\"http:\/\/gwagner.com\/pbs-newshour-climate-shock-july-2015\/\">NewsHour report<\/a> aired on July 16, 2015.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Gernot Wagner and Martin L. Weitzman: Two quick questions: Do you think climate change is an urgent problem? Do you think getting the world off fossil fuels is difficult? This is how our book \u201cClimate Shock\u201d begins. In fact, it\u2019s not our quiz. Robert Socolow from Princeton has posed versions of these questions for &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":850,"featured_media":751,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10039,9532,330],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1000-words","category-climate-science","category-politics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What we know \u2014 and what we don\u2019t \u2014 about global warming - Market Forces<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/markets\/2015\/07\/17\/what-we-know-and-what-we-dont-about-global-warming\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What we know \u2014 and what we don\u2019t \u2014 about global warming - Market Forces\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Gernot Wagner and Martin L. 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Weitzman: Two quick questions: Do you think climate change is an urgent problem? Do you think getting the world off fossil fuels is difficult? This is how our book \u201cClimate Shock\u201d begins. In fact, it\u2019s not our quiz. 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