{"id":24344,"date":"2026-02-12T01:18:21","date_gmt":"2026-02-12T06:18:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/?p=24344"},"modified":"2026-02-12T10:27:50","modified_gmt":"2026-02-12T15:27:50","slug":"shippings-biofuel-moment-lessons-from-aviation-on-land-use-change-assessment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/2026\/02\/12\/shippings-biofuel-moment-lessons-from-aviation-on-land-use-change-assessment\/","title":{"rendered":"Shipping\u2019s biofuel moment: lessons from aviation on land use change assessment"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Glenda Chen<\/a> and Rohemir Ramirez Ballagas<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the global shipping sector races to cut pollution, the fuels chosen today will either accelerate real climate progress or lock in environmental and social harm for decades to come. There are many options on the table to move shipping away from fossil fuels: biofuels from waste and residues, e-fuels powered by renewable electricity and even electrification in some cases. But not all alternative marine fuels are created equal, and getting the regulatory signals right\u2014 with strong, science-based social and environmental safeguards\u2014 can ensure benefits are shared fairly across businesses, communities, and the environment.<\/p>\n\n\nShipping\u2019s biofuel moment: lessons from aviation on land use change assessment <\/a><\/span>Share on X<\/a><\/span>\n\n\n

Without the proper safeguards, including careful management of their full value chain impacts, even the two main marine biofuel feedstocks\u2014 fuels made from vegetable oil and used cooking oil\u2014 or hydrogen could deliver little to no climate benefit. They could even, in some cases, cause damage worse than the fossil fuels they are meant to replace. Scaling the wrong alternatives risks unintended consequences including deforestation, food insecurity, and loss of ecosystems. On the other hand, implementing science-based and robust policies that incentivize truly sustainable fuels can help deliver energy security and long-term value for industry and communities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: International Council on Clean Transportation<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s why the stakes are so high as discussions advance on the continued development of the International Maritime Organization\u2019s lifecycle assessment guidelines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Member States are facing a critical decision: how to evaluate where alternative marine fuels come from and how they are produced \u2014 particularly biofuels, whose popularity is rising as a fast-track option for a transition to low-carbon shipping. Considering the potential magnitude of shipping\u2019s increased demand for limited biomass supplies, the long-term sustainability of biofuels deserves a nuanced approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where the IMO stands & why direct and indirect land use change are important<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the center of this debate is whether and how the IMO will treat land-use change  emissions. Get it right, and sustainable biofuels can support the sector\u2019s energy transition, climate progress and local communities. Get it wrong, and the sector could exacerbate negative environmental and social consequences elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest version of the IMO LCA Guidelines recognizes that land conversion caused by the production of biofuels, be it direct or indirect land-use changes, matter when assessing a fuel\u2019s overall impact. However, these components have not yet been clearly defined, as the IMO is still developing methodological guidance on how to incorporate them. How the IMO defines these terms and sets up safeguards will determine whether an increase in demand for certain biofuels results in deforestation, loss of wetlands, displaced communities and food insecurity. As these can happen through either direct conversion of land to grow bioenergy crops, or indirectly through domino effects, the IMO needs to lay out a credible approach to addressing both direct and indirect land-use changes. Just quantifying these and adding the associated greenhouse gas emissions to the lifecycle emissions estimates is not enough. The IMO needs sustainability safeguards to prevent other impacts on ecosystems and communities \u2013 localized non-greenhouse gas effects that cannot simply be traded away on a carbon market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How LUC is addressed could not only influence whether a particular biofuel\u2019s sourcing, production and delivery genuinely reduce a ship\u2019s greenhouse gas emissions but also whether the sustainability framework distorts fuel choices toward options that undermine shipping\u2019s transition trajectory, delaying meaningful progress and increasing the risk of stranded assets.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lessons from aviation policy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The good news is that shipping doesn\u2019t have to start from scratch. Ground transport and aviation have already grappled with many of the same questions. The International Civil Aviation Organization has spent years developing safeguards for sustainable fuels built on lessons learned from ground transport policy. Now, it is IMO\u2019s turn to take up the baton and advance it further towards a fully future-proof framework.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, it is crucial for IMO to build on the lessons from both ICAO\u2019s successes and shortcomings when designing its own sustainability framework. One major contextual difference between ICAO\u2019s and IMO\u2019s development of their respective sustainability frameworks is their foundational language as codified. ICAO\u2019s framework prioritizes multidimensional socioeconomic and environmental criteria beyond greenhouse gas emissions, setting a solid expectation of high-integrity sustainable aviation fuel pathways such that state-level incentives channel resources accordingly. IMO\u2019s sustainability framework has the broader policy goal of directly incentivizing the uptake of zero and near-zero emission fuels and technologies, without having yet defined other specific characteristics. This approach requires careful design to ensure that the shipping sector and its broader fuel supply chain invests only in high-integrity sustainable maritime fuels.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICAO\u2019s sustainability framework includes a sophisticated hybrid approach that combines quantitative and qualitative elements to account for LUC emissions. Under the ICAO framework, certain feedstocks such as wastes, residues and unintended by-products are designated a \u201czero\u201d LUC value based on qualitative pre-screening. For other pathways involving land-based feedstocks, the induced land use change (including both default direct and indirect emissions) is quantitatively estimated through modeling. Then, for instances involving land use conversion after 2007, the LUC value is compared to the direct LUC emissions to avoid underestimating the overall LUC value. Finally, biofuel producers are then incentivized to implement best land-use management practices, such as yield improvements through cover cropping or cultivation on degraded, unused land, to qualify for a “zero” indirect land use designation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What shipping can adapt and improve: A hybrid approach between qualitative and quantitative assessment of indirect LUC<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Drawing from ICAO\u2019s experience, the IMO should consider the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Apply a hybrid quantitative-qualitative global approach for addressing indirect LUC. The IMO could build on ICAO\u2019s modeling efforts to identify pathways that pose risks to ecosystems and communities and could increase lifecycle emissions. For pathways with high indirect LUC, the IMO should strictly limit or completely avoid their use.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    • Adopt a direct LUC methodology to account for emissions impacts caused by direct land-use conversion, building on ICAO\u2019s existing approach.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
        \n
      • Adopt a methodology for mitigating LUC risk with land management practices.  Production pathways with any level of indirect LUC risk, even for low-risk feedstocks, should be required to obtain third-party certification demonstrating that this risk has been mitigated through appropriate land-management practices. The shipping sector should focus its efforts to uptake sustainable maritime fuels that do not pose environmental harm.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
          \n
        • To ensure compliance with LUC methodologies and further protect ecosystems, IMO should adopt a fully-fledged sustainability framework, including both a robust set of sustainability criteria and a third-party certification system that is equivalent to ICAO\u2019s. The sustainability criteria should encompass all three pillars of sustainability \u2014 environmental, social, and economic \u2014 to ensure that alternative maritime fuels contribute rather than jeopardize the United Nation\u2019s sustainable development goals.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          ICAO\u2019s SAF framework provides a strong starting point for building a credible, future-proof framework for sustainable marine fuels. As IMO discussions evolve, a fair, science-based approach to direct and indirect land use change can help preserve the organization\u2019s credibility and ensure shipping\u2019s transition to low-carbon fuels is not only fast, but durable \u2014 strengthening environmental integrity and delivering positive outcomes for generations to come.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          By Glenda Chen and Rohemir Ramirez Ballagas As the global shipping sector races to cut pollution, the fuels chosen today will either accelerate real climate progress or lock in environmental and social harm for decades to come. There are many options on the table to move shipping away from fossil fuels: biofuels from waste and …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24354,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[114047],"tags":[],"coauthors":[114057],"class_list":["post-24344","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aviation"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nShipping\u2019s biofuel moment: lessons from aviation on land use change assessment - Energy Exchange<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/2026\/02\/12\/shippings-biofuel-moment-lessons-from-aviation-on-land-use-change-assessment\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Shipping\u2019s biofuel moment: lessons from aviation on land use change assessment - Energy Exchange\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Glenda Chen and Rohemir Ramirez Ballagas As the global shipping sector races to cut pollution, the fuels chosen today will either accelerate real climate progress or lock in environmental and social harm for decades to come. 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