{"id":24185,"date":"2025-12-17T13:21:49","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T18:21:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/?p=24185"},"modified":"2026-01-22T12:05:04","modified_gmt":"2026-01-22T17:05:04","slug":"quadrupling-sustainable-fuels-by-2035-only-if-theyre-truly-sustainable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/2025\/12\/17\/quadrupling-sustainable-fuels-by-2035-only-if-theyre-truly-sustainable\/","title":{"rendered":"Quadrupling sustainable fuels by 2035? Only if they\u2019re truly sustainable."},"content":{"rendered":"

As COP30 came to a close, 23 countries \u2014 led by Brazil, India, Italy and Japan \u2014 signed onto a bold commitment: to quadruple sustainable fuel production and use by 2035. The<\/span>\u00a0\u2018<\/span><\/i>Belem 4x Initiative<\/span><\/i><\/a>\u2019<\/span><\/i>, under the\u00a0<\/span>Future Fuels Action Plan,\u00a0<\/span><\/i>is\u00a0one major\u00a0signal that governments increasingly view alternative fuels not just as climate policy, but as a pillar of energy security, industrial\u00a0competitiveness\u00a0and supply-chain resilience.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\nhttps:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/wp-admin\/post-new.php <\/a><\/span>Share on X<\/a><\/span>\n

This shift is\u00a0long-due, putting a real focus on\u00a0the\u00a0so-called\u00a0hard-to-abate sectors,\u00a0i.e.\u00a0industries that require a lot of energy to reach\u00a0very high\u00a0temperatures or to move heavy loads. Heavy trucking, shipping, aviation, steel,\u00a0cement\u00a0and chemicals are together responsible for\u00a0roughly one-third\u00a0of global carbon\u00a0emissions\u00a0and as long as those sectors\u00a0remain\u00a0reliant on fossil fuels, global decarbonization efforts will fall short.\u00a0Recent investments in\u00a0alternative\u00a0fuels by,\u00a0for example,\u00a0the\u00a0<\/span>EU<\/span><\/a>,\u00a0<\/span>China<\/span><\/a>,\u00a0<\/span>India<\/span><\/a>, and others\u00a0are critical\u00a0steps toward filling this gap.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, the rising demand for alternative fuels brings critical questions: Which fuels? And how clean are they, really? The answers: it depends.<\/span>\u00a0And right now, we have an incredible opportunity to bring stakeholders together around sound science, innovative policies and best practices, to get the sustainable fuels ecosystem right as it develops.\u00a0 <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Energy\u00a0security\u00a0meets\u00a0climate\u00a0reality<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The strategic appeal of a diverse clean\u00a0fuel mix is obvious. Countries that secure a portfolio of domestically produced\u00a0hydrogen, e-fuels, sustainable biofuels and other\u00a0low-emissions\u00a0fuels can\u00a0reduce reliance on unstable fossil import markets\u00a0while growing their economies.\u00a0They can protect themselves from geopolitical shocks, stabilize industrial inputs, and foster robust export industries\u00a0\u2014\u00a0all while advancing a clean\u00a0energy transition.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But this ambition\u00a0should not\u00a0come at the expense of\u00a0environmental\u00a0integrity.\u00a0A\u00a0<\/span>new peer-reviewed perspective<\/span><\/a>\u00a0article\u00a0from our own EDF scientists, recently published in\u00a0<\/span>Environmental Science & Technology<\/span><\/i>, makes it clear:\u00a0<\/span>sustainability is not inherent to the molecule \u2013 it is\u00a0a feature of\u00a0the full value chain<\/span><\/b>. Feedstock\u00a0and\u00a0energy sourcing, production efficiency, methane or hydrogen leakage, land-use impacts, carbon capture\u00a0performance\u00a0and combustion emissions all\u00a0determine\u00a0whether a fuel is genuinely\u00a0sustainable,\u00a0or\u00a0no better\u00a0(or even worse)\u00a0than fossil fuels.\u00a0The most successful strategies will\u00a0build in\u00a0environmental integrity from the start, to maximize\u00a0all potential\u00a0benefits.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The numbers confirm the challenge\u00a0of\u00a0scaling\u00a0up\u00a0sustainably.\u00a0Today, sustainable fuels\u00a0represent\u00a0only 1.3% of total energy use worldwide.\u00a0In\u00a0its\u00a0October 2025\u00a0<\/span>report<\/span><\/a>, the International Energy Agency\u00a0calls\u00a0on\u00a0global use of sustainable fuels\u00a0to\u00a0nearly double\u00a0by 2030 and expand fourfold by 2035,\u00a0pointing to\u00a0existing and announced policies\u00a0as an achievable pathway.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

IEA\u00a0defines\u00a0a \u2018sustainable\u2019 fuel as having\u00a0a low\u00a0(though unspecified)\u00a0greenhouse gas\u00a0intensity over its lifecycle, while\u00a0complying with\u00a0other sustainability criteria\u00a0around\u00a0biodiversity, water\u00a0management\u00a0and social safeguards.\u00a0However,\u00a0the range of\u00a0actual\u00a0GHG emissions\u00a0and other impacts can vary\u00a0greatly. For example, the chart below\u00a0from\u00a0the\u00a0IEA\u00a0demonstrates\u00a0the wide range of emissions intensities that can exist within each pathway.\u00a0Some pathways, like biomethane from food waste or alcohol-to-jet fuel from sugarcane, can\u00a0offer a near-zero-emission fuel\u00a0option\u00a0\u2014\u00a0or they can be\u00a0no better than natural gas (~50 gCO2\/MJ).\u00a0Moreover,\u00a0even these ranges of\u00a0IEA\u00a0estimates are not\u00a0comprehensive\u00a0\u2014\u00a0they\u00a0downplay or\u00a0ignore\u00a0warming impacts\u00a0from\u00a0indirect land use change\u00a0and\u00a0methane,\u00a0ammonia\u00a0and\u00a0hydrogen\u00a0releases\u00a0(as outlined\u00a0in EDF\u2019s recent\u00a0<\/span>perspective<\/span><\/a>\u00a0paper).<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Source: IEA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Beyond labels: Why the details matter<\/strong><\/p>\n

Calling something a sustainable fuel based on its potential does not guarantee sustainability. Because the term encompasses dozens of fuel types and feedstocks, and a wide variety of production pathways and value chains, the environmental and social outcomes can vary drastically.<\/p>\n

A few high-stakes examples:<\/span><\/p>\n