{"id":24005,"date":"2025-09-09T13:47:44","date_gmt":"2025-09-09T17:47:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/?p=24005"},"modified":"2025-09-09T15:20:10","modified_gmt":"2025-09-09T19:20:10","slug":"the-stakes-are-high-for-low-carbon-hydrogen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/2025\/09\/09\/the-stakes-are-high-for-low-carbon-hydrogen\/","title":{"rendered":"The stakes are high for low-carbon hydrogen"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/38\/files\/\/2025-09-04-HydrogenAmericas-061-1-scaled.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-24006 size-large\" title=\"Image courtesy of Hydrogen Americas Summit &amp; Exhibition 2025\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/38\/files\/\/2025-09-04-HydrogenAmericas-061-1-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/38\/files\/2025-09-04-HydrogenAmericas-061-1-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/38\/files\/2025-09-04-HydrogenAmericas-061-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/38\/files\/2025-09-04-HydrogenAmericas-061-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/38\/files\/2025-09-04-HydrogenAmericas-061-1-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/38\/files\/2025-09-04-HydrogenAmericas-061-1-2048x1365.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>For blue hydrogen to be truly better for the climate than the fossil fuels it is intending to replace, three conditions must be met: high carbon capture rates and permanent storage; low upstream methane emissions and low hydrogen losses.<\/li>\n<li>A vacuum in federal leadership demands accountability by industry and investors, resisting rollbacks that harm the credibility of the hydrogen industry and committing to transparency.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Meeting global decarbonization goals requires scaling up cleaner molecules to replace unabated fossil fuels. Clean hydrogen isn\u2019t a \u2018nice-to-have\u2019; it is essential where electrification isn\u2019t practical, and to maintaining U.S. competitiveness in global energy markets. But today\u2019s fast-shifting political and market landscape is reshaping hydrogen\u2019s prospects. The choices made now will determine whether hydrogen accelerates climate progress or locks in false solutions. So how can the U.S. ensure that billions in public and private investments deliver truly clean hydrogen with real climate benefits?<\/span><\/p>\n<span class='bctt-click-to-tweet'><span class='bctt-ctt-text'><a href='https:\/\/x.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.edf.org%2Fenergyexchange%2F2025%2F09%2F09%2Fthe-stakes-are-high-for-low-carbon-hydrogen%2F&#038;text=The%20stakes%20are%20high%20for%20low-carbon%20hydrogen&#038;via=EDFEnergyEx&#038;related=EDFEnergyEx' target='_blank'rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The stakes are high for low-carbon hydrogen <\/a><\/span><a href='https:\/\/x.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.edf.org%2Fenergyexchange%2F2025%2F09%2F09%2Fthe-stakes-are-high-for-low-carbon-hydrogen%2F&#038;text=The%20stakes%20are%20high%20for%20low-carbon%20hydrogen&#038;via=EDFEnergyEx&#038;related=EDFEnergyEx' target='_blank' class='bctt-ctt-btn'rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Share on X<\/a><\/span>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The U.S.45V Clean Hydrogen Production tax credit, once devised to be the harbinger of green hydrogen, has been reshaped in ways that privilege blue hydrogen. This is a significant shift away from the original intention of this tax incentive \u2014 to support and encourage growth of the cleanest energy solutions that the global market demands.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The outlook is sobering: Over 75% of U.S. green hydrogen projects may not qualify for intended incentives (<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.woodmac.com\/blogs\/energy-pulse\/big-beautiful-bill-us-energy\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wood Mackenzie<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">); and by 2050, less than 1% of U.S. hydrogen will be renewable, despite an 80% production increase (<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/outlooks\/aeo\/data\/browser\/#\/?id=73-AEO2025&amp;region=1-0&amp;cases=ref2025&amp;start=2023&amp;end=2050&amp;f=A&amp;linechart=ref2025-d032025a.4-73-AEO2025.1-0~ref2025-d032025a.5-73-AEO2025.1-0~ref2025-d032025a.6-73-AEO2025.1-0&amp;map=ref2025-d032025a.4-73-AEO2025.1-0&amp;ctype=linechart&amp;chartindexed=0&amp;sourcekey=0\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">EIA<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Blue hydrogen is now positioned to capture much of the 45V credit, and limitations in the statute and its implementing regulations mean that <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">qualifying<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for the credit does not necessarily ensure taxpayers are getting the most climate bang for their buck. For blue hydrogen to be truly better for the climate than the fossil fuels it is intending to replace, three conditions \u2014 which aren\u2019t fully addressed in the rules of the tax credit \u2014 must be met: high carbon capture rates and permanent storage; low upstream methane emissions and low hydrogen losses.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let me illustrate why these three conditions really matter: capturing only 60% of carbon rather than 90% can reduce hydrogen\u2019s climate benefit over natural gas by<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/2025\/05\/16\/getting-to-clean-the-carbon-capture-imperative-for-blue-hydrogen\/\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">more than 50%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for industrial heat. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If methane and hydrogen losses are also high, blue hydrogen could end up<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/2025\/05\/16\/getting-to-clean-the-carbon-capture-imperative-for-blue-hydrogen\/\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">worse for the climate<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than the fossil fuels it\u2019s replacing.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/22901759?2234824\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/22901759\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n<p><em>Missing capture rate targets has drastic impacts on the relative climate benefit of switching to hydrogen. For example, even where methane and hydrogen emissions are tightly controlled, if carbon capture is low, blue hydrogen loses more than 50% of its relative benefit over natural gas for industrial heat.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><b>Carbon capture and storage must be credible<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Everyone agrees that addressing the carbon from hydrogen production <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">is essential<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, but the complexity of actually getting to \u201clow-carbon\u201d blue hydrogen is <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">often meaningfully underestimated<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. <\/span><b>Global standards and guidelines broadly agree on a target of<\/b> <b>90-95% capture<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and while industry claims it is able to meet this standard, it has yet to be demonstrated consistently on operating blue hydrogen facilities. What\u2019s more, captured carbon must be safely transported and permanently stored, which is also complex, costly and often controversial. These additional infrastructure projects come with their own challenges, including public acceptance, permitting and construction timelines.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A successful blue hydrogen industry <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">requires<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> a credible and fully operational carbon management <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">value chain<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from capture to sequestration. Without it, the low-carbon label is misleading at best. Carbon management failures from pipeline leaks to storage-induced earthquakes can also impact the blue hydrogen industry, and more attention must be paid to ensuring this piece of the puzzle is deployed safely and with environmental integrity.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Methane emissions must be minimized<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Blue hydrogen\u2019s hopes also hinge on managing upstream methane emissions.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> In the U.S., methane leak rates can vary from<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.methanesat.org\/project-updates\/new-data-show-us-oil-and-gas-methane-emissions-over-four-times-higher-epa-estimates\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">less than 1% to more than 8%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in certain basins<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Yet the latest changes to 45V from DOE <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">make it easier to mask <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">this problem by allowing companies to choose from either an<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/2024\/06\/13\/blog-the-safeguards-45v-needs-to-avoid-fossil-hydrogen-regrets\/\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">artificially low<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> leak rat<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">e or their own bespoke value<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2014 based on self-reported data<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> all but eliminating a regulatory incentive to meaningfully reduce methane emissions in the blue hydrogen value chain. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rather than a \u201crace to the bottom,\u201d in which companies are incentivized to cherry pick data to qualify for the best tax credit,<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">this should create a moment of opportunity for corporate leadership. Members of the Oil &amp; Gas Methane Partnership 2.0 have already <\/span><b>committed to a methane leakage rate of no more than 0.2%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in their oil and gas operations. There is no reason why hydrogen companies shouldn\u2019t commit to similar ambition \u2014 and OGMP members must lead the way in establishing accountability mechanisms, such as Level 5 site- and source- specific verification.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Hydrogen emissions must be prevented<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/acp.copernicus.org\/articles\/22\/9349\/2022\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Scientific consensus is clear<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: losses of hydrogen itself \u2014 no matter how clean \u2014 can reduce the benefits of deploying hydrogen systems for the climate. <\/span><b>Every<\/b><b> 1% of hydrogen released into the atmosphere (through operational practices or fugitive emissions) undermines climate benefits by 3% in the near term and roughly 1.5% in the long term<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Current loss estimates for hydrogen are highly variable, by<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/2023\/08\/16\/known-unknown-current-hydrogen-leak-estimates-vary-by-up-to-100-fold-we-need-to-know-more-before-betting-the-farm\/\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">as much as 100-fold<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and tools that can detect hydrogen at the quantities necessary to avoid climate-relevant impacts are currently limited.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But this is changing. Together with industry and academics, EDF<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.edf.org\/media\/major-collaborative-research-study-launches-measure-real-world-hydrogen-emissions\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">recently launched<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> a new major research initiative aimed at filling some of these key data and knowledge gaps. And even as we learn more, the hydrogen industry can and should commit to using<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.edf.org\/sites\/default\/files\/documents\/H2%20Emissions%20Mitigation%20Factsheet_08MAY2023.pdf\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">all available tools<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to limit hydrogen losses \u2014 both for safety and for climate. Certain geographies like the<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/uk-low-carbon-hydrogen-standard-emissions-reporting-and-sustainability-criteria\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">UK<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> are taking the lead and already requiring companies to put these practices into effect.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Transparency is the foundation of clean hydrogen<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For hydrogen to succeed in the U.S., and globally, it must be underpinned by trust and transparency \u2014 particularly as billions of dollars in public funds are being invested for its intended benefits. Without credible data and oversight, U.S. hydrogen risks losing trust at home and competitiveness abroad. From small changes in the GREET model (the methodology to calculate greenhouse gas emissions for hydrogen production facilities, for the purpose of determining eligibility and credit levels under the 45V Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit) to drastic changes like Environmental Protection Agency\u2019s<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.edf.org\/media\/epa-reportedly-plans-stop-collecting-data-about-climate-pollution\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">reported effort<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to dismantle the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, transparent verification and validation systems in the U.S. are at serious risk \u2014 <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">w<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">hat is at stake is<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the market value of U.S produced hydrogen abroad, where expectations are high.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A vacuum in federal leadership demands accountability by industry and investors, resisting rollbacks that harm the credibility of the industry and committing to transparency. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Anything less risks a stark future where clean hydrogen is clean in name only. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The stakes are clear: only by ensuring credibility, transparency and climate integrity can hydrogen fulfil its promise.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; For blue hydrogen to be truly better for the climate than the fossil fuels it is intending to replace, three conditions must be met: high carbon capture rates and permanent storage; low upstream methane emissions and low hydrogen losses. A vacuum in federal leadership demands accountability by industry and investors, resisting rollbacks that harm &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":69512,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"coauthors":[114165],"class_list":["post-24005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The stakes are high for low-carbon hydrogen - Energy Exchange<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/2025\/09\/09\/the-stakes-are-high-for-low-carbon-hydrogen\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The stakes are high for low-carbon hydrogen - Energy Exchange\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&nbsp; For blue hydrogen to be truly better for the climate than the fossil fuels it is intending to replace, three conditions must be met: high carbon capture rates and permanent storage; low upstream methane emissions and low hydrogen losses. 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