{"id":23531,"date":"2024-11-06T10:55:36","date_gmt":"2024-11-06T15:55:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/?p=23531"},"modified":"2024-11-12T14:14:06","modified_gmt":"2024-11-12T19:14:06","slug":"new-study-suggests-preparing-the-grid-now-for-electric-trucks-and-buses-can-save-ratepayers-money","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/2024\/11\/06\/new-study-suggests-preparing-the-grid-now-for-electric-trucks-and-buses-can-save-ratepayers-money\/","title":{"rendered":"New study suggests preparing the grid now for electric trucks and buses can save ratepayers money"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\"> <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/38\/files\/\/GettyImages-1494269822-3.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-23532\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/38\/files\/\/GettyImages-1494269822-3-1024x544.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"287\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/38\/files\/GettyImages-1494269822-3-1024x544.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/38\/files\/GettyImages-1494269822-3-300x160.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/38\/files\/GettyImages-1494269822-3-768x408.jpg 768w, https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/38\/files\/GettyImages-1494269822-3.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.edf.org\/people\/michael-zimmerman\"><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">By Michael Zimmerman<\/span><\/i><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">A <a href=\"https:\/\/library.edf.org\/AssetLink\/1sf1n64na1m7b636rs127w4wqvs11d4e.pdf\">new study<\/a> by Black &amp; Veatch, commissioned by Environmental Defense Fund, provides further evidence that proactive grid investments don\u2019t just help electric vehicles get on the road \u2014 they can save utility ratepayers money.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">As <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.edf.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2024-01\/BuildingGridforNeed2024.pdf\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">EDF<\/span><\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.esig.energy\/grid-planning-for-vehicle-electrification\/\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">and<\/span><\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.advancedenergyunited.org\/reports\/evready\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">many<\/span><\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/calstart.org\/zet-ahead\/\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">others<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> have pointed out, traditional grid planning and investment processes were not designed to keep up with medium- and heavy-duty electric fleets, which can come online much quicker than comparably-sized traditional electric loads, like factories. This study illustrates some of the variables utilities and regulators should consider to prepare the grid in advance for electric trucks.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<span class='bctt-click-to-tweet'><span class='bctt-ctt-text'><a href='https:\/\/x.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.edf.org%2Fenergyexchange%2F2024%2F11%2F06%2Fnew-study-suggests-preparing-the-grid-now-for-electric-trucks-and-buses-can-save-ratepayers-money%2F&#038;text=New%20study%20suggests%20preparing%20the%20grid%20now%20for%20electric%20trucks%20and%20buses%20can%20save%20ratepayers%20money%20&#038;via=EDFEnergyEx&#038;related=EDFEnergyEx' target='_blank'rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">New study suggests preparing the grid now for electric trucks and buses can save ratepayers money  <\/a><\/span><a href='https:\/\/x.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.edf.org%2Fenergyexchange%2F2024%2F11%2F06%2Fnew-study-suggests-preparing-the-grid-now-for-electric-trucks-and-buses-can-save-ratepayers-money%2F&#038;text=New%20study%20suggests%20preparing%20the%20grid%20now%20for%20electric%20trucks%20and%20buses%20can%20save%20ratepayers%20money%20&#038;via=EDFEnergyEx&#038;related=EDFEnergyEx' target='_blank' class='bctt-ctt-btn'rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Share on X<\/a><\/span>\n<p><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Status quo and change both come with risks<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">It\u2019s easy to support preparatory grid investments in concept \u2014 after all, utilities have always built grid infrastructure in anticipation of future loads \u2014 but changing well-established processes can carry risk. Utility regulators justifiably worry that more anticipatory investments may result in stranded or underutilized assets, which can place upward pressure on rates (This is not a new issue, but the recent advent of transportation electrification loads, and commensurate increased need for anticipatory investments, has pushed it to the forefront of many regulators\u2019 minds.)\u00a0 On the other hand, <\/span>not<span data-contrast=\"auto\"> investing ahead of loads also carries risk to ratepayers. For example, where a utility underestimates future loads, it\u2019s likely to undertake inefficient or duplicative work, such as multiple incremental upgrades to the same asset, where a single larger project could have done the job much more cheaply.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">This study set out, in part, to weigh these risks against each other. It seeks to address the questions:<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"-\" data-font=\"Calibri\" data-listid=\"12\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Calibri&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;-&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"0\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Does making grid investments in anticipation of MHDV loads end up costing less than reactive investments? What are the impacts to customer bills?<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:200,&quot;335559740&quot;:276}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"-\" data-font=\"Calibri\" data-listid=\"12\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Calibri&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;-&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">What if forecasted MHDV loads don\u2019t materialize? What is the cost of overestimating future loads, versus underestimating them?\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:200,&quot;335559740&quot;:276}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Black &amp; Veatch engaged these questions by modeling grid buildout scenarios for two utilities \u2014 CenterPoint Energy Houston and Consolidated Edison \u2014 using asset planning, capacity, and cost data provided by those utilities. The study modeled future system upgrades and associated costs under sequential (i.e., status quo) planning approaches, and proactive approaches that capture, and build in anticipation of, future EV loads over a long planning horizon. This modeling also included managed and unmanaged charging scenarios, as well as multiple EV adoption scenarios, to assess forecasting risk. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Key results include:<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"-\" data-font=\"Calibri\" data-listid=\"12\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Calibri&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;-&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"2\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Overall, building proactively tends to yield lower costs than building sequentially. The study suggests that proactive construction in anticipation of EV loads yields about $20M of savings, on present-value basis, compared to sequential construction for the assets modeled in Con Edison\u2019s territory; and about $10-13M of savings for the assets modeled in CenterPoint\u2019s territory. The cost-optimal mix of proactive versus sequential builds will vary based on utility- and location-specific factors.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"-\" data-font=\"Calibri\" data-listid=\"12\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Calibri&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;-&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"3\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Overestimating future EV loads appears to carry limited risk. The EV load sensitivities modeled had little impact on the optimal mix of proactive versus sequential investments. An all-proactive approach continued to be cheaper overall even at the lowest EV penetration scenario modeled. Thus, overestimating EV loads appears to represent a much lower risk, from a total cost perspective, than the risk of failing to build in anticipation of potential future loads.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"-\" data-font=\"Calibri\" data-listid=\"12\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335551671&quot;:0,&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Calibri&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;-&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"4\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Other new sources of load growth besides EVs, such as data centers and building electrification, are expected to amplify the above effects. Though the study did not model these other load sources, it suggests that as they are layered into utilities\u2019 forecasts, they will tend to further tip utilities\u2019 optimal investment approach toward proactive construction.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">These results suggest that proactive construction will often be justified even without regard to other benefits that this study did not examine. For example, a proactive approach may help avoid future increases in utilities\u2019 unit costs (i.e., building today is often cheaper than waiting to build tomorrow). Preparing the grid will also help EVs and electrified buildings come online more quickly, accelerating improvement of air quality and utility rate savings (<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.publicadvocates.cpuc.ca.gov\/press-room\/reports-and-analyses\/distribution-grid-electrification-model-findings\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">several<\/span><\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2317599121\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">other<\/span><\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.synapse-energy.com\/sites\/default\/files\/Electric%20Vehicles%20Are%20Driving%20Rates%20Down%20for%20All%20Customer%20Update%20Jan%202024%2021-032.pdf\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">studies<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> have found that EVs tend to generate revenues in excess of their costs, which puts downward pressure on rates to the benefit of all ratepayers).<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Next Steps for Utilities and Regulators<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">These results warrant both more analysis and more action. Deeper dives into each utility\u2019s specific contexts will yield insights that this study could not. For example, due to data limitations, the study could only model portions of the utilities\u2019 systems; trends seen at those levels were imputed across each utility\u2019s asset base. The study focused on voltage upgrades as a proactive approach. Voltage upgrades may not be practicable in all circumstances, and the study did not model other forms of proactive construction. Utilities should consider conducting \u2014 and releasing for review \u2014 analysis that drives these concepts down to the granular system level.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">That said, the study\u2019s central findings are actionable today. This study provides evidence that the stranded-asset risk of overestimating EV loads, and the cost risk of underestimating EV loads, are not symmetrical. Much more research can (and should) be done to refine these findings further and to consider them in other utilities\u2019 contexts. But in the meantime, to help reduce costs to ratepayers, regulators should direct utilities to 1) incorporate EV loads into their long-range planning forecasts; and 2) err on the side of investing proactively where forecasts are ambiguous.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Michael Zimmerman\u00a0 A new study by Black &amp; Veatch, commissioned by Environmental Defense Fund, provides further evidence that proactive grid investments don\u2019t just help electric vehicles get on the road \u2014 they can save utility ratepayers money.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":153199,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"coauthors":[114199],"class_list":["post-23531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - 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