{"id":13371,"date":"2016-06-15T11:51:45","date_gmt":"2016-06-15T16:51:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/?p=13371"},"modified":"2016-06-15T12:00:24","modified_gmt":"2016-06-15T17:00:24","slug":"market-forces-are-driving-coals-demise-and-cleaning-up-the-grid-in-texas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/2016\/06\/15\/market-forces-are-driving-coals-demise-and-cleaning-up-the-grid-in-texas\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Forces are Driving Coal\u2019s Demise and Cleaning Up the Grid in Texas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-4853\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/texascleanairmatters\/files\/2016\/06\/power-lines-unsplash-cropped-300x268.jpg\" alt=\"power lines unsplash cropped\" width=\"300\" height=\"268\" \/>What do economists and environmentalists have in common? When it comes to Texas\u2019 energy future, more than you may think.<\/p>\n<p>According to a new <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brattle.com\/system\/publications\/pdfs\/000\/005\/292\/original\/Exploring_Natural_Gas_and_Renewables_in_ERCOT__Part_IV_-_The_Future_of_Clean_Energy_in_ERCOT.pdf?1464026626\">study<\/a> from the Brattle Group, a reputable, national economics consulting firm with extensive experience in Texas\u2019 electricity sector, market forces are leading to coal\u2019s rapid decline in the Lone Star State. Moreover, rapidly-growing cleaner electricity sources like natural gas and renewable energy will be able to entirely meet Texas\u2019 additional power needs \u2013 without increasing electric bills. We couldn\u2019t agree more.<\/p>\n<p>That said, we\u2019re confident the impacts are going to be even <em>more<\/em> powerful in terms of Texas\u2019 wind, solar, and energy efficiency. And the latest <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ercot.com\/gridinfo\/resource\">report<\/a> from Texas\u2019 main grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), continues to support that expectation.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p><strong>New report foretells a cleaner Texas grid<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Commissioned by the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.texascleanenergy.org\/\">Texas Clean Energy Coalition<\/a>, the Brattle Group\u2019s new analysis examines how market factors will affect Texas\u2019 electric makeup over the next 20 years.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s what you need to know:<\/p>\n<div class=\"simplePullQuote right\"><p>As Texas\u2019 grid becomes significantly cleaner, wholesale electricity prices will stay around the same as 2014 prices.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The price of natural gas is the primary driver of change.<\/strong> It\u2019s no secret the cost of natural gas has plummeted over the past decade. In fact, Energy Information Administration data shows natural gas prices were more or less\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/electricity\/data\/browser\/#\/topic\/15?agg=1,0,2&amp;fuel=1&amp;geo=0000000002&amp;sec=80o&amp;linechart=ELEC.COST_BTU.NG\">cut in half during 2008-2014<\/a>. New technology unlocked massive amounts of gas, and the electricity market hasn\u2019t been the same since. The Brattle Group study assumes natural gas prices will remain low, at $4.00 per MMBTU or less through 2035. This assumption was based on forecasts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and ERCOT.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Coal is going down, while natural gas and renewables are going up.<\/strong> Things are not looking good for Old King Coal. The analysis breaks down the generation mix for 2035, and coal is reduced to producing a measly six percent of energy in ERCOT \u2013 down from <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/texascleanairmatters\/2015\/07\/16\/powering-texas-big-clean-market-driven-changes-are-already-underfoot\/\">45 percent<\/a> in 2002.\u00a0Taking its place is greater reliance on low-carbon natural gas, wind, and solar.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Other than inflation, electricity prices will stay the same.<\/strong> Many coal industry water-carriers will have you believe the transition to a clean energy economy is costly. Not only does this misinformation fail to take into account external costs \u2013 like the public health benefits of cleaner air \u2013 it also ignores the fact that this transition in Texas is occurring as a result of the competitive market. The Brattle Group study demonstrates that, as Texas\u2019 grid becomes significantly cleaner, wholesale electricity prices will stay around the same as 2014 prices, with adjustments for inflation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In a nutshell, Texas\u2019 grid is undergoing a major scrubbing \u2013 i.e. it\u2019s going to be a lot cleaner 20 years down the road because of market forces already underfoot. Since that translates to a major reduction in carbon and other forms of air pollution, all Texans will be breathing easier thanks to these changes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>We can go further on renewables and efficiency<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Although it\u2019s clear wind and solar will continue to play a bigger role in powering Texas, we think the pieces are in place to see an even greater impact than the Brattle Group is projecting. And it\u2019s not just us \u2013 ERCOT\u2019s newest generation report predicts big wind and solar gains.<\/p>\n<p>For one, the percentage of electricity provided by wind generation in the Brattle Group study estimates there will be about 25,000 MW of wind generation installed by 2019. In contrast, ERCOT is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ercot.com\/gridinfo\/resource\">projecting<\/a> installed wind generation in Texas is on track to surpass that amount <em>2 years early <\/em>\u2013 with more additions anticipated thereafter.<\/p>\n<p>Similarly, the amount of installed solar generation in the Brattle Group study peaks by 2022, but ERCOT <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ercot.com\/content\/wcm\/key_documents_lists\/77758\/2016_LTSA_Update_3_22_2016.pptx\">forecasts<\/a> solar will keep growing through 2031 \u2013 more than 40 percent higher than the figure used in the analysis.<\/p>\n<p>[Tweet &#8220;Market Forces are Driving Coal\u2019s Demise and Cleaning Up the Grid in Texas&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>Plus, the Brattle Group study uses conservative numbers, assuming no technological changes or breakthroughs. But anyone with an eye on clean energy can tell you it\u2019s a rapidly developing, exciting time. For example, energy storage \u2013 including compressed air energy storage and battery technologies \u2013 has the potential to address concerns regarding renewables\u2019 intermittency through the ability to store and quickly release energy. The U.S. storage market <a href=\"http:\/\/www.greentechmedia.com\/articles\/read\/The-Plug-and-Play-Grid-Is-Not-That-Far-Off\">grew<\/a> 245 percent in 2015 over 2014, and experts predict full viability is not far off.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, the Brattle Group study assumes energy efficiency will grow, resulting in lower electricity demand, costs, and pollution. Definitely true. But the study underestimates efficiency growth, predicting energy efficiency will reduce demand by only five percent by 2035. A recent <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/texascleanairmatters\/2016\/05\/11\/saving-energy-and-money-texas-is-on-a-path-to-greater-efficiency\/\">analysis<\/a> by Environmental Defense Fund and Southcentral Partnership for Energy Efficiency as a Resource demonstrates state building codes and existing utility programs \u2013 already in place \u2013 will add about\u00a0<em>seven<\/em>\u00a0percent savings in 2030. In other words, efficiency will play a bigger role in cleaning up our electric grid than the Brattle Group included in its study.<\/p>\n<p>Economists and environmentalists clearly agree the market is leading Texas to a cleaner energy future \u2013 the results of the Brattle Group\u2019s study even echo those of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.edf.org\/texas-clean-power\">our report<\/a> from last year. This transition will help protect our communities\u2019 health from pollution, grow the state\u2019s economy, and save this drought-ridden state substantial water. We look forward to ushering in, as the Brattle Group <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/texascleanairmatters\/files\/2016\/05\/Brattle-IV-Executive-Summary-Final-17-may-2016.pdf\">put it<\/a>, \u201ca cleaner, affordable, and more reliable electric grid that relies on Texas-produced energy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><em>This post originally appeared on our <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/texascleanairmatters\/2016\/06\/15\/market-forces-are-driving-coals-demise-and-cleaning-up-the-grid-in-texas\/\">Texas Clean Air Matters<\/a> blog<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What do economists and environmentalists have in common? When it comes to Texas\u2019 energy future, more than you may think. According to a new study from the Brattle Group, a reputable, national economics consulting firm with extensive experience in Texas\u2019 electricity sector, market forces are leading to coal\u2019s rapid decline in the Lone Star State. &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8015,693,177,181],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-13371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-air-quality","category-natural-gas","category-renewable-energy","category-texas"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Market Forces are Driving Coal\u2019s Demise and Cleaning Up the Grid in Texas - Energy Exchange<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/2016\/06\/15\/market-forces-are-driving-coals-demise-and-cleaning-up-the-grid-in-texas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Market Forces are Driving Coal\u2019s Demise and Cleaning Up the Grid in Texas - Energy Exchange\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What do economists and environmentalists have in common? 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According to a new study from the Brattle Group, a reputable, national economics consulting firm with extensive experience in Texas\u2019 electricity sector, market forces are leading to coal\u2019s rapid decline in the Lone Star State. ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/2016\/06\/15\/market-forces-are-driving-coals-demise-and-cleaning-up-the-grid-in-texas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Energy Exchange\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-06-15T16:51:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2016-06-15T17:00:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/texascleanairmatters\/files\/2016\/06\/power-lines-unsplash-cropped-300x268.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jim Marston\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@JimMarston\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jim Marston\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/energyexchange\\\/2016\\\/06\\\/15\\\/market-forces-are-driving-coals-demise-and-cleaning-up-the-grid-in-texas\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/energyexchange\\\/2016\\\/06\\\/15\\\/market-forces-are-driving-coals-demise-and-cleaning-up-the-grid-in-texas\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Jim Marston\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/energyexchange\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/7d88fede15d2d3e5a52362920ba70473\"},\"headline\":\"Market Forces are Driving Coal\u2019s Demise and Cleaning Up the Grid in Texas\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-06-15T16:51:45+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-06-15T17:00:24+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/energyexchange\\\/2016\\\/06\\\/15\\\/market-forces-are-driving-coals-demise-and-cleaning-up-the-grid-in-texas\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":924,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/energyexchange\\\/2016\\\/06\\\/15\\\/market-forces-are-driving-coals-demise-and-cleaning-up-the-grid-in-texas\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/texascleanairmatters\\\/files\\\/2016\\\/06\\\/power-lines-unsplash-cropped-300x268.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Air Quality\",\"Natural Gas\",\"Renewable Energy\",\"Texas\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/energyexchange\\\/2016\\\/06\\\/15\\\/market-forces-are-driving-coals-demise-and-cleaning-up-the-grid-in-texas\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/energyexchange\\\/2016\\\/06\\\/15\\\/market-forces-are-driving-coals-demise-and-cleaning-up-the-grid-in-texas\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/energyexchange\\\/2016\\\/06\\\/15\\\/market-forces-are-driving-coals-demise-and-cleaning-up-the-grid-in-texas\\\/\",\"name\":\"Market Forces are Driving Coal\u2019s Demise and Cleaning Up the Grid in Texas - 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