{"id":10068,"date":"2015-05-01T14:20:56","date_gmt":"2015-05-01T19:20:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/?p=10068"},"modified":"2015-05-01T14:24:11","modified_gmt":"2015-05-01T19:24:11","slug":"fossil-fuels-havent-lost-the-race-yet-heres-the-full-story","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/2015\/05\/01\/fossil-fuels-havent-lost-the-race-yet-heres-the-full-story\/","title":{"rendered":"Fossil fuels haven’t lost the race, yet. Here’s the full story."},"content":{"rendered":"

By: Jeremy Proville<\/a>,\u00a0Senior GIS Specialist & Economic Analyst<\/em><\/p>\n

\"Source:<\/a>A recent Bloomberg New Energy Finance\u00a0article<\/a>\u00a0made a splash saying that fossil fuels \u201cjust lost the race against renewables.\u201d It included a striking chart, depicting changes in power capacity additions with very clear diverging trends.<\/p>\n

Although this would be a delightful turn of events, we should be wary of putting the cart before the horse.<\/p>\n

What may be lost on many readers is the fact that Bloomberg bases its story on power\u00a0capacity, rather than actual power generation.<\/p>\n

Here is a graph depicting net changes in generation over time, using\u00a0data from the\u00a0International Energy Agency<\/a>:<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"IEA<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

This bar chart tells a different story than what Bloomberg\u2019s graphic showed.<\/p>\n

To get the full picture \u2013 and to accurately assess how far we\u2019ve come in our\u00a0much-needed transition<\/a>\u00a0to a clean energy economy \u2013 we need to understand power sources can differ a great deal. This has direct bearing on whether renewable energy is, in fact, outcompeting fossil fuels.<\/p>\n

Renewables such as solar and wind typically operate with much lower capacity factors than fossil fuel sources do \u2013 often generating energy between 20 percent to 40 percent of their maximum capacity.\u00a0With coal plants, however, this number would typically be upwards of 80 percent.<\/p>\n

Another critical aspect is retirements. New additions are important, but given that power plants are retired every year, it helps to look at net changes over time.<\/p>\n

While we might still expect future generation in renewables to exceed fossil fuels, this shows there isn\u2019t necessarily a clearly diverging trend – yet. This is especially true given that such projections are conditional on changes in costs,\u00a0fuel prices<\/a>, and future\u00a0policy shifts<\/a>\u00a0that we can\u2019t reliably predict.<\/p>\n

One thing is clear: We still have a lot of work ahead of us to create a\u00a0clean energy future<\/a>\u00a0for our planet.<\/p>\n

Photo source:\u00a0Flickr\/Nick Humphries<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

This post originally appeared on our EDF Voices blog<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By: Jeremy Proville,\u00a0Senior GIS Specialist & Economic Analyst A recent Bloomberg New Energy Finance\u00a0article\u00a0made a splash saying that fossil fuels \u201cjust lost the race against renewables.\u201d It included a striking chart, depicting changes in power capacity additions with very clear diverging trends. Although this would be a delightful turn of events, we should be wary …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42996],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-10068","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-smart-power"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFossil fuels haven't lost the race, yet. 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