{"id":10013,"date":"2015-04-28T14:34:34","date_gmt":"2015-04-28T19:34:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/?p=10013"},"modified":"2015-04-28T14:35:32","modified_gmt":"2015-04-28T19:35:32","slug":"nercs-report-is-flawed-we-can-reduce-climate-pollution-and-ensure-electric-reliability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/energyexchange\/2015\/04\/28\/nercs-report-is-flawed-we-can-reduce-climate-pollution-and-ensure-electric-reliability\/","title":{"rendered":"NERC’s Report is Flawed: We Can Reduce Climate Pollution and Ensure Electric Reliability"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"rp_power-poles-503935_1280-300x199.jpg\"<\/a>If reducing climate pollution from power plants were a football game, the U.S. team would be halfway to the goal line while fans were still singing the national anthem.<\/p>\n

That is, we have already gotten about halfway to the expected goals of the\u00a0Clean Power Plan<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 before the rule is even final.<\/p>\n

The Clean Power Plan is the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency\u2019s (EPA) historic effort to place the first-ever limits on climate pollution from our country\u2019s existing fleet of fossil fuel-fired power plants. When it\u2019s finalized this summer, it\u2019s expected to call for a 30 percent reduction in carbon emissions compared to 2005 levels \u2014 but\u00a0U.S. power plant emissions have already fallen 15 percent\u00a0compared to 2005 levels.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s because renewable energy, energy efficiency resources, and natural gas generation have been steadily deployed and growing for years. Even conservative estimates forecast continued growth of these resources \u2014 which makes last week\u2019s report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) seem really strange.<\/p>\n

NERC\u2019s report about the Clean Power Plan\u2019s impacts on electric grid reliability makes predictions that starkly contrast from the progress we\u2019re already seeing.<\/p>\n

How did this departure from reality happen?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s due in large part to\u00a0severely flawed assumptions underlying NERC\u2019s analysis,\u00a0which yield unrealistic results.<\/p>\n

Those flawed assumptions cause NERC to greatly overstate the generation mix changes required to meet the Clean Power Plan. The NERC Assessment\u2019s assumptions regarding energy efficiency, renewable energy deployment, and retirement modeling are at odds with both recent experience and current trends.<\/p>\n

Unrealistically low energy efficiency gains<\/strong><\/p>\n

NERC assumes demand for electricity will grow at an average of one percent per year through 2030, even after accounting for growth in energy efficiency investments. That growth rate is more than 40 percent higher than the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts.<\/p>\n

It also fails to reflect likely energy efficiency growth. An analysis by\u00a0McKinsey & Company<\/a>\u00a0found that implementing only those efficiency measures that pay for themselves would reduce the nation\u2019s total end-use energy consumption by 23 percent by 2020.<\/p>\n

Arbitrary and unrealistic projections on wind and solar expansion\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

NERC predicts expansions of wind and solar power that are far below those observed in recent years.<\/p>\n

U.S. solar capacity stood at 20.5 gigawatts at the end of 2014. The NERC Assessment predicts an addition of 13 to 20 gigawatts of solar energy between 2016 and 2030 \u2014 when solar capacity is expected to\u00a0grow by 20 gigawatts<\/a>\u00a0over the next two years alone.<\/p>\n

The U.S. wind industry is also\u00a0expected to add 18 gigawatts<\/a>\u00a0of new capacity in the next two years.<\/p>\n

NERC\u2019s low-ball assumptions greatly limit renewable energy deployment in their study. This in turn greatly increases the burden on other compliance options, namely coal-to-gas generation shifting.<\/p>\n

Failure to account for dynamic grid reliability management tools<\/strong><\/p>\n

NERC assumes the Clean Power Plan will drive coal power plant retirements over its entire life-span. However, numerous studies \u2014 including one by the\u00a0Brattle Group<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0three<\/a>\u00a0by the\u00a0Analysis<\/a>\u00a0Group<\/a>, show that total output and emissions from coal units can decrease without retiring units that are needed to operate on occasion in order to maintain electric reliability.<\/p>\n

There are also numerous tools and processes available to grid operators to ensure reliability in light of dynamic market, technological, and regulatory change, including capacity and energy markets, resource adequacy forecasting, and reliability must-run contracts.<\/p>\n

These instruments, for example, have worked well to maintain adequate capacity during the recent wave of coal-fired power plant retirements, so much so the electric grid has added an average of roughly 30 gigawatts of total power\u00a0every year since 2000<\/a>. The NERC Assessment, however, finds only 11 to12 gigawatts of total power will be added every year \u2013 a significant departure from the past 15 years of evidence.<\/p>\n

A history of inaccurate assessments<\/strong><\/p>\n

This report is not the first time that NERC has issued an inaccurate assessment of threats to reliability.<\/p>\n

NERC has assessed previous public health and environmental safeguards, each time raising reliability concerns that were not borne out in reality.<\/p>\n