{"id":916,"date":"2009-08-25T15:27:03","date_gmt":"2009-08-25T20:27:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/?p=916"},"modified":"2009-08-25T15:27:03","modified_gmt":"2009-08-25T20:27:03","slug":"api-misses-the-mark-why-refineries-will-do-just-fine-under-aces","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2009\/08\/25\/api-misses-the-mark-why-refineries-will-do-just-fine-under-aces\/","title":{"rendered":"API Misses the Mark: Why Refineries Will Do Just Fine Under ACES"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The American Petroleum Institute (API) recently took a break from hosting anti-cap-and-trade rallies for oil company employees, and used its spare time to put out a study claiming the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES) would be unfair to American oil refineries. Unfortunately their study uses some dubious assumptions \u2013 and makes some even more questionable claims.<\/p>\n<p>API\u2019s study (carried out by consulting firm Ensys Energy) outlines two major complaints.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>First, API whines that the bill only sets aside 2.25 percent of emissions allowances for refiners, while the electricity sector gets 35 percent of the available allowances.<\/li>\n<li>The second, related claim is that ACES would increase the cost of doing business so much that companies would turn to cheaper overseas refineries instead.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Before we even address those complaints, there\u2019s one thing I have to point out &#8212; API is relying on bad modeling and cherry-picked results to create its case.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The results quoted in API\u2019s news release come from running a scenario that severely restricts international offsets and allows no expansion of low-carbon technologies beyond what would happen without a clean energy bill. There\u2019s no basis for those assumptions, but they do manage to skew the results to make refineries look more vulnerable.<\/li>\n<li>However, if we consider the \u201cbasic case\u201d (or, \u201cmost likely\u201d) model outcome in Ensys\u2019 report, it is clear that the activity of domestic refineries is <strong>expected to increase <\/strong>compared to their current levels.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>But let\u2019s ignore the study results for a minute, and just take a look at API\u2019s two complaints.<\/p>\n<p>First, API seems to think <strong>refineries are getting picked on because they aren\u2019t getting as many free allowances<\/strong> as the electricity sector. But &#8212; they ignore the reasons why the two are not comparable.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The electricity sector allowances they\u2019re talking about actually benefit American consumers. The allowances are first handed to local distribution companies, or LDC\u2019s, but the value of the allowances doesn\u2019t stay there. LDCs are required to use the value of those allowances to protect consumers from electricity price increases. Giving allowances to the LDC\u2019s really means giving allowances to American ratepayers.<\/li>\n<li>Oil refineries, in contrast, are private companies whose owners are free to pocket any money they get from their emissions allowances. So giving allowances to oil refiners really means &#8212; giving money to oil refiners. (API might like those two ideas equally, but no one else does.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Of course, if the oil refiners were willing to accept the same regulations as utilities, and guarantee that their emissions allowances would be used to lower the price of a gallon of gasoline, that\u2019s an idea worth discussing. API\u2019s study doesn\u2019t put that offer on the table, though.<\/p>\n<p>Second, API says that America could become dangerously dependent on foreign refineries. (API President Jack Gerard says, &#8220;Climate legislation should not come at the expense of U.S. economic and energy security.&#8221;)<\/p>\n<p>But \u2013 U.S. refineries have cornered 90 percent of the market for domestic gasoline. Homegrown refineries dominate the market because there are, inherently, <strong>strong cost advantages for domestic production, and little incentive to send business overseas<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Different states have different regulations governing oil refining, which favors local businesses and makes it difficult or impossible for foreign refineries to compete.\u00a0 In fact, in other environmental scenarios, such as emissions standards for cars, industries claimed exactly that \u2013 no company could possibly create 50 slightly different products to sell under 50 different state rules, and only local businesses could thrive under those conditions.<\/li>\n<li>It\u2019s also significantly easier and cheaper to ship crude oil than refined gasoline. That makes it much more efficient to import crude oil and do the refining right here at home. That\u2019s a physical difference that won\u2019t go away if we pass a clean energy bill.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>EDF did our own analysis of the impact of climate legislation on oil refineries.\u00a0 Here\u2019s what we found:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The expected added cost from a clean energy bill, per gallon of refined gasoline, is <strong>less than one cent per gallon<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>Analysis also suggests that refiners can be expected to <strong>pass on the majority of any cost increase to their customers<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>As a result, between <strong>1.4 and 1.7 percent of total allowances<\/strong> would be enough to compensate domestic refineries \u2013 in full &#8212; for the added costs associated with reducing their process emissions.<\/li>\n<li>Since <strong>ACES allocates 2.25 percent of allowances<\/strong> to oil refiners, EDF believes the allocations set out in ACES are more than generous.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Given all this, the bill should <strong>not affect the competitiveness of American refineries<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>A larger problem might be the unfortunate effect of API\u2019s study on the average American consumer. Outside the industry, a lot of people don\u2019t draw a distinction between \u201coil\u201d and \u201cgasoline.\u201d A quick read of news articles about the study could imply that ACES will increase America\u2019s dependence on foreign oil \u2013 when one of the most valuable aspects of the bill is that it will do just the opposite. Under ACES, the EIA predicts that the U.S. would reduce its consumption of oil by 344 million barrels in the year 2030 alone. That\u2019s a vital benefit to our national security as well as our environment.<\/p>\n<p>A whopping amount of our own oil and the imported oil would still be refined into gasoline here, in spite of API\u2019s fears. After all, even their own biased study predicts increasing U.S. refinery activity.\u00a0 All in all, clean energy legislation is still good for all Americans \u2013 including oil refineries.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The American Petroleum Institute (API) recently took a break from hosting anti-cap-and-trade rallies for oil company employees, and used its spare time to put out a study claiming the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES) would be unfair to American oil refineries. Unfortunately their study uses some dubious assumptions \u2013 and makes some even &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2209,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[108,43,397],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-916","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climate-change-legislation","category-economics","category-truth-squad"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>API Misses the Mark: Why Refineries Will Do Just Fine Under ACES - Climate 411<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2009\/08\/25\/api-misses-the-mark-why-refineries-will-do-just-fine-under-aces\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"API Misses the Mark: Why Refineries Will Do Just Fine Under ACES - Climate 411\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The American Petroleum Institute (API) recently took a break from hosting anti-cap-and-trade rallies for oil company employees, and used its spare time to put out a study claiming the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES) would be unfair to American oil refineries. 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