{"id":862,"date":"2009-03-13T08:55:58","date_gmt":"2009-03-13T15:55:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/truthsquad\/2009\/03\/13\/climate-security-imposes-upon-social-welfare\/"},"modified":"2009-03-13T08:55:58","modified_gmt":"2009-03-13T15:55:58","slug":"climate-security-imposes-upon-social-welfare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2009\/03\/13\/climate-security-imposes-upon-social-welfare\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate action imposes upon social welfare"},"content":{"rendered":"

Claim:<\/h3>\n

“Even under the most optimistic assumptions, every study we examined predicts huge welfare costs in terms of consumption. A lower estimate involves a drop in consumption of 0.8%-1% below the business-as-usual scenario in every year starting in 2008 and going into the future, which represents a huge decrease in social welfare.”<\/p>\n

\u2013 From The Cost of Climate Regulation for American Households<\/em>, a report published by the George C. Marshall Institute, March 2, 2009<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Truth:<\/h3>\n

This report claims to be a meta-analysis review of several studies on the economic impact of the Lieberman Warner Climate Security Act from last year’s Congress.<\/p>\n

The studies covered in the Marshall Institute report include those from:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • The Massachusetts Institute of Technology<\/li>\n
  • The Environmental Protection Agency<\/li>\n
  • The Environmental Investigation Agency<\/li>\n
  • The American Council for Capital Formation and the National Association of Manufacturers (joint study)<\/li>\n
  • The Charles River Associates<\/li>\n
  • The Heritage Foundation’s Center for Data Analysis<\/li>\n
  • The Clean Air Task Force<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    The Marshall Institute report gives equal weight to all these studies, including those studies by the Charles River Associates, the Heritage Foundation and ACCF\/NAM, which have been widely discredited for faulty economic modeling and assumptions.<\/p>\n

    The report considers the percentage change in consumption rather than gross domestic product as the most important welfare indicator and then claims:<\/p>\n

    “Even under the most optimistic assumptions, every study we examined predicts huge welfare costs in terms of consumption. A lower estimate involves a drop in consumption of 0.8%-1% below the business-as-usual scenario in every year starting in 2008 and going into the future, which represents a huge decrease in social welfare.”<\/p>\n

    In fact, the EPA, MIT and EIA numbers for 2015 loss in consumption were all around 0.4%. In other words, the Marshall report ignores the data from the most credible studies.<\/p>\n

    They then continue to use the upper range of their own over-inflated 0.8-1% increase to apply a “balanced growth equivalency” lowering of the consumption – i.e. they estimated what a 1% loss in consumption would be for an average household of four.<\/p>\n

    And, to further inflate the cost number, they start counting in 2008, years before a climate bill would even come into place.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Claim: “Even under the most optimistic assumptions, every study we examined predicts huge welfare costs in terms of consumption. 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