{"id":819,"date":"2009-08-12T12:32:58","date_gmt":"2009-08-12T17:32:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/?p=819"},"modified":"2009-08-12T12:32:58","modified_gmt":"2009-08-12T17:32:58","slug":"more-manufactured-numbers-from-the-national-association-of-manufacturers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2009\/08\/12\/more-manufactured-numbers-from-the-national-association-of-manufacturers\/","title":{"rendered":"More Manufactured Numbers from the National Association of Manufacturers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The National Association of  Manufacturers and the American Council for Capital Formation today continued  their campaign of public deception against the American Clean Energy and  Security Act with the release of an analysis that purports to show manufacturing  declines and job losses if the bill passes.<\/p>\n<p>Problem is,\u00a0NAM\u2019s numbers are about <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2009\/08\/04\/coal-industry-group-linked-to-forged-letters\/\">as trustworthy as the forged letters<\/a> sent by their allies to members of Congress, which faked  opposition to the ACES bill from local community groups. They are no more real  that the Birthers\u2019\u00a0imaginary Kenyan birth  certificate for President Obama, which names a laundry detergent as the  registrar. (<a title=\"http:\/\/nativeborncitizen.wordpress.com\/2009\/08\/02\/third-obama-birth-certificate-appears-in-court\/\" href=\"http:\/\/nativeborncitizen.wordpress.com\/2009\/08\/02\/third-obama-birth-certificate-appears-in-court\/\">Really.<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>As you know, NAM has  a long history of opposing virtually every major environmental law, often using  similar bad arguments with flawed data. NAM\/ACCF\u2019s study from last year was  seriously flawed \u2013 it claimed to look at that year&#8217;s Lieberman-Warner bill, but it ignored important provisions of the legislation and imposed artificial  constraints on the economy\u2019s ability to reduce emissions.<\/p>\n<p>The analysis presumed there would be no banking of emission allowances and only limited use of offsets. The study also artificially constrained the use of renewable energy and carbon capture and  storage.<\/p>\n<p><strong>In short, they applied make-believe  assumptions to a make-believe bill, and they are doing it again:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>NAM\/ACCF\u2019s conclusions assume that  ACES will spur 10 to 25 GW in new nuclear power.  Compare that to the Energy  Information Administration\u2019s base scenario,  which\u00a0predicts 10 GW without the bill \u2013 and as much as 95 GW with the  bill.<\/li>\n<li>NAM\/ACCF assumes that 95 percent  of\u00a0cost-saving offsets will come from  domestic projects and five percent from overseas.\u00a0In fact, ACES provides for a 50-50 split between  domestic and international offsets, and the latter are expected to be more  cost-effective.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>These\u00a0are but two questionable assumptions from the  very few that NAM and ACCF disclosed \u2013 from a model  with\u00a0a huge array of inputs.<\/strong> No one will  ever know exactly how they reached their numbers, because important details  about their analysis and underlying assumptions remain in a black  box.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ll have a more detailed rebuttal  to NAM\/ACCF\u2019s claims for you later today.<\/p>\n<p>In the meantime, <strong>here\u2019s what we  already know from independent, transparent analysis<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The <a title=\"http:\/\/www.eia.doe.gov\/oiaf\/servicerpt\/hr2454\/index.html\" href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.doe.gov\/oiaf\/servicerpt\/hr2454\/index.html\">Energy Information Administration says<\/a> the cap on carbon pollution in ACES can be achieved for $83 per year per household \u2013 or a  dime a day per person. One of the reasons for the affordability is that  increases in electricity and natural gas bills of consumers are substantially  mitigated through 2025 by the allocation of free allowances to regulated  electricity and natural gas distribution companies.<\/li>\n<li>The <a title=\"http:\/\/www.cbo.gov\/ftpdocs\/103xx\/doc10327\/06-19-CapAndTradeCosts.pdf\" href=\"http:\/\/www.cbo.gov\/ftpdocs\/103xx\/doc10327\/06-19-CapAndTradeCosts.pdf\">Congressional Budget Office found [PDF]<\/a> that ACES would  cost the average household $175 a year by 2020, or about the cost of a postage  stamp per day. The CBO also found that the poorest 20 percent of American  households would actually see a net cash gain under the bill of about a $40 in 2020. The study factored in the value of emissions allowances that will be  rebated to consumers.<\/li>\n<li>The <a title=\"http:\/\/www.epa.gov\/climatechange\/economics\/economicanalyses.html#hr2452\" href=\"http:\/\/www.epa.gov\/climatechange\/economics\/economicanalyses.html#hr2452\">Environmental Protection Agency puts the cost<\/a> of a carbon cap on at $88-$140 per household per year over the life of the program  \u2013 or about a dime a day per person. (Sound familiar?)<\/li>\n<li>The <a title=\"http:\/\/www.eia.doe.gov\/oiaf\/servicerpt\/hr2454\/index.html\" href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.doe.gov\/oiaf\/servicerpt\/hr2454\/index.html\">Energy Information Administration (see above) also says<\/a> that ACES would reduce our dependence on foreign oil. The U.S. would reduce its consumption of oil by 344 million barrels in the year 2030 alone, a cut of more than 12 percent from predicted imports for the same year without the bill.\u00a0To put that figure in perspective, 344 million barrels of oil are worth almost $26 billion today.<\/li>\n<li>The <a title=\"http:\/\/www.globalchange.gov\/publications\/reports\/scientific-assessments\/us-impacts\/download-the-report\" href=\"http:\/\/www.globalchange.gov\/publications\/reports\/scientific-assessments\/us-impacts\/download-the-report\">United States Global Change Research Program found<\/a> that  America will face hundreds of  billions of dollars in costs if we don\u2019t take steps to stop climate change. The  cost of inaction will include: sea level rise of as much as two feet that will  destroy property along our coasts; stronger hurricanes and other storms that  will damage cities; and severe droughts that will devastate agricultural  sectors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The National Association of Manufacturers and the American Council for Capital Formation today continued their campaign of public deception against the American Clean Energy and Security Act with the release of an analysis that purports to show manufacturing declines and job losses if the bill passes. Problem is,\u00a0NAM\u2019s numbers are about as trustworthy as the &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[108,43],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-819","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climate-change-legislation","category-economics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>More Manufactured Numbers from the National Association of Manufacturers - Climate 411<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2009\/08\/12\/more-manufactured-numbers-from-the-national-association-of-manufacturers\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"More Manufactured Numbers from the National Association of Manufacturers - Climate 411\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The National Association of Manufacturers and the American Council for Capital Formation today continued their campaign of public deception against the American Clean Energy and Security Act with the release of an analysis that purports to show manufacturing declines and job losses if the bill passes. 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