{"id":5099,"date":"2014-05-02T08:56:15","date_gmt":"2014-05-02T13:56:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/?p=5099"},"modified":"2014-05-02T08:56:15","modified_gmt":"2014-05-02T13:56:15","slug":"feeding-9-billion-requires-facing-up-to-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2014\/05\/02\/feeding-9-billion-requires-facing-up-to-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"‘Feeding 9 billion’ requires facing up to climate change"},"content":{"rendered":"

This post was co-authored by\u00a0<\/span>Kritee<\/a>, Senior Scientist, International Climate;\u00a0Richie Ahuja<\/a>, Regional Director, Asia; and Tal Lee Anderman, Tom Graff Fellow \u2013 India Low-Carbon Rural Development<\/em><\/p>\n

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National Geographic’s May cover\u00a0story<\/a>, \u201cFeeding 9 billion,\u201d offers valuable insights into how to feed a growing global population while reducing agriculture\u2019s environmental impacts. But it omits some key connections with a critical issue: climate change.<\/p>\n

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Drought in the U.S. causes withering of corn. (Photo credit: Ben Fertig, IAN, UMCES)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

As the Food and Agriculture Organization recently\u00a0documented<\/a>\u00a0in great detail, climate change is likely to fundamentally alter the structure of food systems around the globe. With about 43% of the world\u2019s population employed in agriculture,\u00a0<\/i>it\u2019s vital that farmers have the knowledge and tools they need both to adapt to climate change and to help mitigate it.<\/p>\n

Author Jonathan Foley, who directs the University of Minnesota\u2019s Institute on the Environment, lays out several steps for \u201cFeeding 9 billion.\u201d Though he starts by acknowledging that agriculture emits \u201cmore greenhouse gases than all our cars, trucks, trains, and airplanes combined,\u201d he doesn\u2019t explicitly mention how his plan relates to a changing climate.<\/p>\n

The first of his steps \u2013 halting conversion of additional forests and grasslands to agriculture \u2013 is crucial to stopping climate change, given the vast quantities of greenhouse gases released in these conversions. As the latest\u00a0Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<\/a>\u00a0(IPCC) report on\u00a0mitigation<\/a>\u00a0noted, protecting forests and increasing carbon content of the soils can decrease global emissions by as much as 13 gigatons CO2eq\/year by 2030 \u2013 more than a quarter of current annual global emissions.<\/p>\n

Foley also highlights the need to reduce meat consumption, because only a very limited portion of calories consumed by animals yield edible food for humans, and to reduce food waste. According to the IPCC, these consumer-level steps have the potential to decease agricultural emissions by 60% below the current trajectory. While Foley didn\u2019t acknowledge these mitigation potentials,\u00a0we agree<\/a>\u00a0that these are important steps to feeding the world\u2019s population and protecting our environment.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s his steps calling for improving productivity \u2013 both by growing more food on existing farms, and by using fertilizer, water and energy more efficiently \u2013 where the interactions with climate are more complex and need special attention.<\/p>\n

Climate adaptation and resilience in agriculture<\/b><\/p>\n

Foley rightly points out that to feed the world\u2019s future population, more food needs to grow on existing farms. However, he doesn\u2019t note that some of the effects of climate change \u2013 droughts, floods and heat waves in many parts of the world \u2013 are already\u00a0reducing<\/i>\u00a0crop yields, and these effects and their consequences are expected to worsen.<\/p>\n

The IPCC\u2019s recently published 5th\u00a0Assessment Report on\u00a0adaptation<\/a>\u00a0concludes that:<\/p>\n