{"id":4561,"date":"2014-02-14T14:37:42","date_gmt":"2014-02-14T19:37:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/?p=4561"},"modified":"2014-02-14T14:37:42","modified_gmt":"2014-02-14T19:37:42","slug":"arctic-melting-a-business-opportunity-but-also-a-dangerous-climate-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2014\/02\/14\/arctic-melting-a-business-opportunity-but-also-a-dangerous-climate-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Arctic Melting \u2013 a Business Opportunity, but Also a Dangerous Climate Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Obama Administration recently released a plan<\/a> to cope with a warming Arctic.<\/p>\n

Climate change has increased warming in that region at a striking rate, and it has extended the ice melting season by about two weeks per decade<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As a result, the Arctic–which was inaccessible to commercial shipping as recently as 2008–saw 71 vessels cross last year.<\/p>\n

Speedy Arctic development, however, is an indisputably risky business.<\/p>\n

The Threat<\/b><\/address>\n

Over the past three decades, warmer temperatures have caused Arctic sea ice to\u00a0lose half of its area<\/a>\u00a0and three quarters of its volume.<\/p>\n

Even with a slight increase in ice this winter, the\u00a0Arctic\u2019s sea ice last December<\/a>\u00a0was still the fourth lowest on record.<\/p>\n

In the summer of 2012 alone, sea ice shrunk by 350,000 square miles compared to the previous summer. That\u2019s\u00a0an area the size of Venezuela<\/b>.<\/p>\n

Permafrost, defined<\/a> as frozen soil, sediment, or rock that has remained at or below zero degrees Celsius for at least two years, comprises about 25 percent of the land in the Northern Hemisphere.Along with record ice melt, all of the permafrost-monitoring sites in northern Alaska have experienced record high temperatures<\/a> in the past few years.<\/p>\n

According to estimates<\/a>, the carbon dioxide and methane stored in the Northern Hemisphere\u2019s permafrost is equivalent to more than double<\/b> the carbon concentration currently in the atmosphere.<\/p>\n

The Northern Hemisphere\u2019s shallow (zero to three meters deep) permafrost is the part most susceptible to melting, and that part alone contains carbon dioxide and methane equivalent to more than 400 ppm of atmospheric carbon dioxide \u2013 or, the amount currently in the entire <\/i>atmosphere<\/b>. (That\u2019s according to <\/i>\u201cReport from International Permafrost Association: Carbon Pools in Permafrost Regions\u201d by Kuhry, Peter, Chien-Lu Ping, Edward A. G. Schuur, Charles Tarnocai, and Sergey Zimov.)<\/i><\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/dt>\n
Permafrost in the Arctic. Source: Wikimedia Commons<\/dd>\n<\/dl>\n

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)\u2013the world\u2019s foremost authority on climate change\u2013expects the Northern Hemisphere\u2019s permafrost to melt 20 to 35 percent<\/a> by 2050.<\/p>\n

Quick math with very<\/i> conservative assumptions tells us this: if not curtailed, carbon emissions from the Northern Hemisphere\u2019s permafrost melting will bring the atmospheric carbon concentration beyond <\/b>450 ppm<\/b><\/a>, <\/b>the number the IPCC deems the threshold beyond which the world can expect extreme shifts in weather patterns, ecology, and geology.<\/p>\n

While the lasting effect of permafrost thaw on atmospheric carbon concentrations is uncertain, it is safe to say that the scale of the risk is potentially enormous and expensive into the trillions of dollars.<\/p>\n

According to Maplecroft\u2019s 2013 Climate Change Vulnerability Index<\/a>, 67 countries with an \u201cestimated combined GDP of $44 trillion will come under increasing threat from the physical impacts of more frequent and extreme climate-related events.\u201d<\/p>\n

The World Bank (2010)<\/a> estimates annual climate change adaptation costs for the years 2010 to 2050 to be $70 to $100 billion for the developing world alone.<\/p>\n

Unmitigated permafrost melting promises to hasten temperature increases and greatly exacerbate these costs.<\/p>\n

The Business Interest<\/b><\/address>\n

While methane from permafrost melt rises like a thick, invisible smoke stack, some members of the business world are focused on the economic potential of an increasingly iceless\u2013and thus accessible\u2013Arctic frontier.<\/p>\n

The foremost reason for the Arctic\u2019s economic promise is its massive oil and gas deposits.<\/p>\n

According to Foreign Affairs<\/a><\/i>:<\/p>\n

The Arctic\u2019s oil and gas fields account for 10.5 percent of global oil production and 25.5 percent of global gas production. And those numbers could jump soon. Initial estimates suggest that the Arctic may be home to an estimated 22 percent of the world\u2019s undiscovered conventional oil and gas deposits, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.<\/p>\n

Recent investments of many billions of dollars<\/a> from oil giants\u2013including Shell, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Statoil, Gazprom, and Rosneft–shows the excitement in the industry regarding the future revenues from these formerly ice-restricted resources.<\/p>\n

An ice-free Arctic also creates shorter shipping routes.<\/p>\n

For the first time ever, the Northern Sea Route, which passes through the Arctic to connect Europe to Eurasia, is open to commercial shipping, with over 70 vessels sailing<\/a> through in 2013.<\/p>\n

The Arctic also harbors valuable deposits of zinc, nickel, palladium, diamonds, platinum, cobalt, tungsten, uranium, and other minerals. And above ground, forestry, fishing, and many other industries promise to benefit from Arctic development.<\/p>\n

\u00a0A Dangerous Cycle<\/b><\/address>\n

As melting ice unlocks the Arctic, it threatens to push temperatures to tipping points. It also unleashes economic activity that may spark positive feedback loops, bringing more and more Arctic melting \u2013 and thus more carbon dioxide and methane released from permafrost.<\/p>\n

Additionally, as a warming climate allows snow and ice to thaw, tundra species are being replaced with evergreen trees, which absorb more sunlight. (Snow is white, so it\u00a0absords less of the\u00a0sun’s heat than the darker evergreens.) That means that more tree cover will, counter-intuitively, further increase warming and thawing trends in the Arctic.<\/p>\n

Other factors such as direct carbon loss through combustion<\/a> and increasing fires could also further increase this cycle.<\/p>\n

While the science regarding permafrost melt\u2019s climate implications remains uncertain, the risk is so enormous that turning a blind eye while developing the Arctic frontier is tremendously irresponsible.<\/p>\n

The ensuing hastening of permafrost\u2019s melt could lead to global economic costs that drastically exceed the benefits from Arctic development.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Obama Administration recently released a plan to cope with a warming Arctic. Climate change has increased warming in that region at a striking rate, and it has extended the ice melting season by about two weeks per decade. As a result, the Arctic–which was inaccessible to commercial shipping as recently as 2008–saw 71 vessels …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39754,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[100,20,42],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-4561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-arctic-antarctic","category-news","category-science"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nArctic Melting \u2013 a Business Opportunity, but Also a Dangerous Climate Risk - Climate 411<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2014\/02\/14\/arctic-melting-a-business-opportunity-but-also-a-dangerous-climate-risk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Arctic Melting \u2013 a Business Opportunity, but Also a Dangerous Climate Risk - Climate 411\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Obama Administration recently released a plan to cope with a warming Arctic. 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