{"id":410,"date":"2008-03-04T13:11:39","date_gmt":"2008-03-04T18:11:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2008\/03\/04\/cbo_followup\/"},"modified":"2008-07-01T14:41:21","modified_gmt":"2008-07-01T19:41:21","slug":"cbo_followup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2008\/03\/04\/cbo_followup\/","title":{"rendered":"Phone Calls from the Congressional Budget Office"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img src='https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/2008\/02\/nat_keohane.jpg' alt='Nat Keohane' align=\"left\" hspace=\"8\" class=\"blogAuthorPic\" \/><i>This post is by <a href=\"http:\/\/environmentaldefense.org\/page.cfm?tagID=12740\">Nat Keohane, Ph.D.<\/a>, Director of Economic Policy and Analysis at the Environmental Defense Fund.<\/i><\/p>\n<p>My February 21 post, <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2008\/02\/21\/cbo_report_tax_vs_cap\/\">CBO Report: The Real Story<\/a>, caught the attention of the folks at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Last Wednesday, I received a call from Terry Dinan, the senior analyst at CBO who wrote the report. A little while later I got a second call, this time from Peter Orszag, the Director of CBO.<\/p>\n<p>In particular, they didn&#8217;t like the attention-grabbing paragraph at the top that said:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u2026a careful reading reveals the report to be a theoretical exercise with no real-world relevance. It highlights the drawbacks of a version of cap-and-trade that no one advocates, and bases its efficiency analysis on a faulty premise.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I stand by what I wrote, as I&#8217;ll explain in a moment. But a call from the Director of CBO is fairly attention-getting, as well. Moreover, Dinan and Orszag are smart and well-respected economists, and my conversations with them helped to sharpen my own thinking. So I thought I&#8217;d explain a couple of points in more detail.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>To be perfectly clear: The folks at CBO did a good job of presenting the economics literature. If you read all the way through the report, you will find a balanced characterization of mainstream economic thinking.<\/p>\n<p>But I had <b>two concerns<\/b>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The report puts too much weight on a <b>straw man<\/b> &#8211; the so-called &quot;inflexible cap-and-trade&quot; system, a policy that has never been proposed in the real world.<\/li>\n<li>The report&#8217;s main conclusions rely on a <b>faulty premise<\/b> that, while in line with the economics literature, is at odds with the conclusions of climate scientists.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>The Straw Man: &quot;Inflexible&quot; Cap-and-Trade<\/h3>\n<p>The CBO report opens by comparing a carbon tax with a straw man: an inflexible cap-and-trade system that precludes banking and borrowing of allowances. Nobody is proposing such a policy. As I explained in my previous post, banking and borrowing are crucial ways of giving firms flexibility to manage their emissions reductions over time, and are a key part of every proposal before Congress.<\/p>\n<p>When I spoke to Terry Dinan, she said she didn&#8217;t intend readers to dwell on the inflexible cap. Rather, she used a simplified version of cap-and-trade as a way to &quot;build intuition&quot; (highlight basic concepts). This is a common strategy in academic circles, and in fact, all the theoretical analyses on which CBO relies also consider an inflexible cap-and-trade system.<\/p>\n<p>But a CBO report is not merely an academic document; it&#8217;s also a political one. And in that context, I worry that such nuances are lost on the average reader.<\/p>\n<h3>The Faulty Premise: Flow versus Stock<\/h3>\n<p>What about that &quot;faulty premise&quot; I mentioned? In considering the damages from greenhouse gases (GHGs), the mainstream economic literature that CBO cites looks at annual emissions, rather than total concentration in the atmosphere.<\/p>\n<p>In my view, this focus on current emissions rather than total concentration is a fundamental error. Although annual emissions are what we <i>can control<\/i>, they are not what policy <i>must manage<\/i>. The total concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere is what drives global warming, so the objective of climate policy should be to stabilize total GHG concentration &#8211; cumulative emissions.<\/p>\n<p>Cumulative emissions are distinct from annual emissions because the pollution we emit today will still be there in <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2008\/02\/26\/ghg_lifetimes\/\">a hundred or even a thousand years<\/a>. We&#8217;re emitting GHGs into the atmosphere much faster than natural processes can remove them. What matters is not what we emit in a given year, but the <i>total amount<\/i> that ends up in the atmosphere.<\/p>\n<p><b>In economic terms, global warming is a problem of managing a &quot;stock&quot; (total GHG concentration) rather than &quot;flow&quot; (annual emissions).<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Economists do recognize that global warming depends on the stock of GHG pollution. The problem is, they haven&#8217;t incorporated that fact into their thinking about policy solutions.<\/p>\n<h3>Marginal Damages Will Be Steep<\/h3>\n<p>If the factor you&#8217;re considering is emissions, then the marginal damages (the incremental damages from each additional ton) are essentially constant. That is, the damage from one more ton of emissions doesn&#8217;t depend on how much has already been emitted in a given year. Framed in this way, the most &quot;economically efficient&quot; policy to control climate change (that is, the policy that achieves the greatest expected net benefits) would appear to be a carbon tax, since a carbon tax controls price. That, in a nutshell, is the CBO\u2019s argument.<\/p>\n<p>But if the factor you&#8217;re considering is total GHG concentration, then marginal damages are anything but flat. Scientists tell us that far from being constant, climate change is abrupt and non-linear. From the National Academies report <i><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nap.edu\/openbook.php?isbn=0309074347\">Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises<\/a><\/i>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u2026greenhouse warming and other human alterations of the earth system may increase the possibility of large, abrupt, and unwelcome regional or global climatic events.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>One reason that the effects of global warming are non-linear is &quot;<a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2008\/02\/13\/tipping_elements\/\">tipping points<\/a>&quot;, critical thresholds at which small changes qualitatively alter the state of a system. An example is the Greenland Ice Sheet, which could start a slow but irreversible meltdown if GHG concentrations cause global temperature to rise above a tipping point (that scientists warn could be just 2\u00b0F above today&#8217;s temperature). If the Greenland Ice Sheet melts, this would eventually &#8211; and inevitably &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2007\/10\/19\/urgency_of_action\/\">cause sea levels to rise over 20 feet<\/a>, flooding heavily populated coastal areas around the world. And this is just one example.<\/p>\n<p><b>Translated into economic terms, this means that the marginal damages from global warming are likely to increase very rapidly at some point.<\/b><\/p>\n<p>When marginal damages are steep, the most efficient way to manage climate change is through a cap-and-trade system, since a cap directly controls cumulative emissions.<\/p>\n<p>The CBO report actually makes this point, acknowledging that the existence of a threshold or &#8220;tipping point&#8221; for the consequences of climate change &quot;could make a cap more efficient than a tax.&quot; CBO treats this as a merely hypothetical concern, but scientists tell us it&#8217;s actually the case.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This post is by Nat Keohane, Ph.D., Director of Economic Policy and Analysis at the Environmental Defense Fund. My February 21 post, CBO Report: The Real Story, caught the attention of the folks at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Last Wednesday, I received a call from Terry Dinan, the senior analyst at CBO who wrote &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Phone Calls from the Congressional Budget Office - Climate 411<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2008\/03\/04\/cbo_followup\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Phone Calls from the Congressional Budget Office - Climate 411\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This post is by Nat Keohane, Ph.D., Director of Economic Policy and Analysis at the Environmental Defense Fund. 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