{"id":25158,"date":"2025-11-18T17:10:49","date_gmt":"2025-11-18T22:10:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/?p=25158"},"modified":"2025-12-15T15:34:47","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T20:34:47","slug":"california-can-cut-emissions-faster-while-lowering-costs-for-working-families","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2025\/11\/18\/california-can-cut-emissions-faster-while-lowering-costs-for-working-families\/","title":{"rendered":"California can cut emissions faster while lowering costs for working families"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">California is leading the nation on climate action, with Governor Newsom representing the U.S. at the international climate conference and the state legislature strengthening and extending California\u2019s landmark climate policy, Cap-and-Invest. The state government is taking ambitious action on the climate crisis from all angles and now the spotlight is on the California Air Resources Board (CARB).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As CARB works to update the design of its cap-and-invest program, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.greenlineinsights.com\/carb-oct-29th-workshop-analytical-response-2025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>new modeling<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> shows the state can take ambitious action to cut pollution while still cutting costs for the vast majority of families. More specifically, adopting a more ambitious pollution cap <\/span><b>now<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than what is currently on the table translates into easier, larger pollution cuts <\/span><b>over the next 20 years.<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">By making these changes to the program now, California is <\/span><b>investing early<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the success of its climate goals. Think of it like a 401k account: the benefits of early action compound over time, paying bigger climate and economic dividends later. If the state waits to act, it&#8217;s missing out on years of progress building a safer, more affordable future for Californians.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Where the program stands<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cap-and-Invest is California\u2019s most cost-effective tool to reduce climate-altering pollution and is an important affordability solution for Californians. The program\u2019s binding, declining limit on pollution ensures that emissions are cut over time while prioritizing the most readily available, lowest cost opportunities to reduce pollution. At the same time, the program requires polluters to pay for their emissions \u2014 generating a crucial source of revenue that has already reduced household costs through <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpuc.ca.gov\/industries-and-topics\/natural-gas\/greenhouse-gas-cap-and-trade-program\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$16 billion in utility bill credits for residential customers<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.ca.gov\/2025\/05\/07\/state-invests-nearly-33-billion-in-cap-and-trade-dollars-to-make-communities-cleaner-and-healthier\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">over $30 billion<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> raised for community investments.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CARB is working on updates to the program in order to make sure it is calibrated to meet the state\u2019s climate targets, limiting pollution and driving clean energy investment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Part of that adjustment means removing emissions allowances from the annual \u2018emissions budgets\u2019, translating to less pollution going into the atmosphere. At a workshop last month, CARB presented scenarios for reductions, noting that removing 118 million allowances from the program between now and 2030 would be the bare minimum needed to achieve our targets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.greenlineinsights.com\/carb-oct-29th-workshop-analytical-response-2025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New modeling<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> shows CARB can pursue a more ambitious path \u2014 cutting more emissions while improving affordability for working families.<\/span><!--more--><\/p>\n<h3><b>Modeling results: a more ambitious cap is affordable<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The modeling from Greenline Insights finds that, if California adopts a tighter near-term emissions cap by removing 154 million allowances through 2030 instead of the minimum 118 million, it would cut significantly more pollution <\/span><b>while <\/b><b><i>saving money <\/i>for working families<\/b><b>\u2013\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Over $600 million in net savings through 2045 for families earning $100,000 or less annually (more than half of California households).<\/b><\/li>\n<li><b>Lower-income families that earn $70,000 or less receive the biggest affordability gains from a more ambitious emissions cap: $2.2 billion in net savings through 2045.<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This \u201cHigher Ambition\u201d scenario would result in 586 million emissions allowances removed from the program cap, cumulatively, between 2027 and 2045. A tighter near-term emissions cap would maintain market stability and deliver a steadily increasing but modest price signal, stimulating long-term investment in clean technologies while avoiding hitting price containment features built into the program.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The modeling shows that <\/span><b>more\u00a0 ambitious pollution reduction now is not only <\/b><b><i>possible,<\/i><\/b><b> but would provide meaningful cost savings to working families in California<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. CARB should swiftly adopt the \u201cHigher Ambition\u201d scenario in order to deliver on the promise of strong climate action at the exact moment when state leadership is so badly needed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Figure 1: Modeled Cap Trajectories, MMTCO<\/b><b>2<\/b><b>e<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/\/Greenline-caps-chart.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-25162 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/\/Greenline-caps-chart.png\" alt=\"A chart showing modeled cap trajectories for the Cap-and-Invest program, shown in million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent over 20 years.\" width=\"736\" height=\"480\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/Greenline-caps-chart.png 736w, https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/Greenline-caps-chart-300x196.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 736px) 100vw, 736px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What we find is that a higher-ambition cap doesn\u2019t destabilize the market, but rather improves it.\u201d said <\/span><b>Jonah Kurman-Faber, Founder and Principal at Greenline Insights<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. \u201cEven with deeper allowance removals, prices stay within expected bounds, maintaining a predictable market signal and providing net benefits for lower- and middle-income households.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h3><b>Next steps<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Cap-and-Invest Program is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.greenlineinsights.com\/investments-for-californias-future\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">already helping lower<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> costs for families by putting money directly back into Californians\u2019 pockets<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As CARB presides over the rulemaking process determining the program\u2019s next steps, one conclusion is clear: cutting pollution quickly now helps save Californians money.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ambitious action can also help prevent the growth of a climate-induced affordability crisis:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">California faces <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/claimguide.org\/disaster-preparedness\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>more than $16 billion in climate-related disaster costs every year<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2014 the highest in the nation.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home insurance is becoming <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankrate.com\/insurance\/homeowners-insurance\/carriers-exit-california-home-insurance\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">harder and more expensive<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to obtain, while families and communities are paying the price of extreme heat, floods and wildfires.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Over the past decade alone, major heat events caused <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.insurance.ca.gov\/0400-news\/0100-press-releases\/2024\/release026-2024.cfm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$7.7 billion in losses<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wildfire smoke exposure has contributed to more than <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/newsroom.ucla.edu\/releases\/the-death-toll-from-wildfire-smoke\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">50,000 deaths and more than $400 billion in economic damages<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">By acting on the science and strengthening the cap-and-invest program\u2019s emissions cap, CARB can help secure a cleaner, more affordable future for all Californians.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>California is leading the nation on climate action, with Governor Newsom representing the U.S. at the international climate conference and the state legislature strengthening and extending California\u2019s landmark climate policy, Cap-and-Invest. The state government is taking ambitious action on the climate crisis from all angles and now the spotlight is on the California Air Resources &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":151379,"featured_media":25159,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[200,43],"tags":[108218,108219,108164],"coauthors":[107971,108107,107958],"class_list":["post-25158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-california","category-economics","tag-california","tag-cap-and-invest","tag-emissions"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>California can cut emissions faster while lowering costs for working families - Climate 411<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Adopting a more ambitious pollution cap will help the state cut pollution, create savings, and build a safer, more affordable future.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2025\/11\/18\/california-can-cut-emissions-faster-while-lowering-costs-for-working-families\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"California can cut emissions faster while lowering costs for working families - 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