{"id":24885,"date":"2025-05-29T15:56:55","date_gmt":"2025-05-29T20:56:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/?p=24885"},"modified":"2025-05-29T16:02:45","modified_gmt":"2025-05-29T21:02:45","slug":"despite-lower-revenue-due-to-program-uncertainty-a-stronger-long-term-cap-and-trade-promises-to-strengthen-investments-in-california","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2025\/05\/29\/despite-lower-revenue-due-to-program-uncertainty-a-stronger-long-term-cap-and-trade-promises-to-strengthen-investments-in-california\/","title":{"rendered":"Despite lower revenue due to program uncertainty, a stronger, long-term Cap and Trade promises to strengthen investments in California"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/\/Untitled-design-4.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-24886\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/\/Untitled-design-4.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2160\" height=\"1350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/Untitled-design-4.jpg 2160w, https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/Untitled-design-4-300x188.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/Untitled-design-4-1024x640.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/Untitled-design-4-768x480.jpg 768w, https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/Untitled-design-4-1536x960.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/Untitled-design-4-2048x1280.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2160px) 100vw, 2160px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ww2.arb.ca.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/2025-05\/nc-may_2025_summary_results_report.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Results were released today<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> for California\u2019s second cap-and-trade auction of the year, and the first auction since Governor Newsom proposed <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.ca.gov\/2025\/04\/15\/governor-newsom-legislature-double-down-on-states-critical-cap-and-trade-program-in-face-of-federal-threats\/#:~:text=As%20the%20Governor%20noted%20in,its%202045%20carbon%2Dneutrality%20goal.\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">extending California\u2019s cap-and-trade program through 2045<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> as part of his May budget proposal. As California lawmakers consider the future of the cap-and-trade program, they face a pivotal opportunity to deliver real and lasting benefits to communities across the state. At stake is not only California\u2019s continued leadership on climate, but also the potential to unlock major economic and affordability gains for Californians.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Today\u2019s auction results show another dip in prices and loss of important revenue, driving home the very real cost of uncertainty around the reauthorization of this program beyond 2030, despite the Governor\u2019s proposal to extend it in the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.edf.org\/media\/california-must-lead-climate-action-final-state-budget-agreement\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">May Revision <\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">of the FY 2025\u20132026 budget. This auction generated roughly half as much revenue for the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF) as the May 2024 auction \u2014 and that revenue is critical for California communities. A <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.greenlineinsights.com\/investments-for-californias-future\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">new report<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> published this month by Environmental Defense Fund and Greenline Insights shows just how much Californians stand to benefit if the state extends and strengthens the cap-and-trade program beyond 2030. The results are clear: with smart, ambitious policy, California can cut pollution while growing the economy, creating good-paying jobs and making the state more affordable for working families.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>May auction results<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">43,865,000 of the 51,069,285 current vintage allowances \u2014 emission allowances valid for compliance this year \u2014 offered for sale were purchased, resulting in the first under-subscribed quarterly auction since <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2020\/08\/25\/western-climate-initiative-auction-strengthens-as-state-has-opportunity-to-increase-its-climate-ambition\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">August, 2020<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. Roughly 85% of current vintage allowances were sold.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The current auction settled at the price floor of $25.87, and $3.40 below the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2025\/02\/26\/delay-and-uncertainty-around-californias-core-pollution-cutting-program-is-costing-the-state-millions\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">February 2025 settlement price<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> of $29.27.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">All of the 6,847,750 future vintage allowances offered for sale were purchased. These allowances can be used for compliance beginning in 2028. This is the same number of future vintage allowances that\u00a0 were offered at the previous advance auction.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Future vintage allowances settled at $26.15, $0.28 above the $25.87 price floor and $1.85 below the February settlement price of $28.00<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This auction is expected to generate roughly $595 million for the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund. This is another significant drop in revenue from the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2025\/02\/26\/delay-and-uncertainty-around-californias-core-pollution-cutting-program-is-costing-the-state-millions\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">February auction<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, which generated roughly $851 million, and is a reduction by nearly half compared to<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2024\/05\/30\/californias-second-carbon-market-auction-of-the-year-raises-revenue-at-critical-time-for-climate-funds\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> last May\u2019s auction<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> which raised $1.1 billion.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><b>Uncertainty is costing California communities\u00a0<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">As we saw in February\u2019s auction results, the continued uncertainty around when and how this key program will be extended continues to put a damper on near-term allowance price demand (though future vintages did sell out), significantly driving down revenue to the GGRF and hurting the state\u2019s ability to invest in communities and climate resilience. Swift and ambitious action is urgently needed to give market participants certainty and bolster the revenue that delivers huge benefits to Californians.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Cap-and-trade revenue saves money for households<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.greenlineinsights.com\/investments-for-californias-future\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A new report released earlier this month by EDF and Greenline Insights<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> shows just how important the revenue from these auctions is for spurring economic and job growth and delivering savings to consumers. The analysis shows that, on top of cutting pollution, a strong cap-and-trade program is a powerful economic driver. Extending the program beyond 2030 would deliver meaningful savings for households, help generate well-paying jobs and stimulate local economies across the state. According to the new analysis, program extension could:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Save families $3.9 billion, including nearly $700 per household for those earning under $70,000 per year.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Deliver $2.2 billion in savings for the vast majority of California families.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Create 287,0000 new jobs, with average wages of $93,600.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Generate $55 billion in statewide economic growth, with top gains in Los Angeles, Orange, Kern, Fresno and Alameda counties.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Increasing the program\u2019s ambition could amplify these benefits, further building on the momentum already underway. Last week, the California Air Resources Board released its <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ww2.arb.ca.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/auction-proceeds\/cci_annual_report_2025.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">annual <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">California Climate Investments<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> report<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, highlighting that the state has invested nearly $33 billion from its cap-and-trade program into critical climate initiatives across California.\u00a0 These investments span across critical climate and community priorities, including <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hcd.ca.gov\/grants-and-funding\/programs-active\/affordable-housing-and-sustainable-communities\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">affordable housing<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.energy.ca.gov\/programs-and-topics\/programs\/equitable-building-decarbonization-program\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">building decarbonization<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ww2.arb.ca.gov\/our-work\/programs\/california-climate-investments\/about\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">climate resilience<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. On top of that announcement, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.edf.org\/media\/governor-newsom-announced-co-chair-us-climate-alliance-underscoring-californias-continued\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Governor Newsom was named co-chair of the U.S. Climate Alliance<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, reaffirming California\u2019s role as a national and global leader in climate action. This is a clear moment for California climate leadership, and legislative reauthorization offers a key opportunity to both extend and further strengthen this landmark program.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Next steps<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">California lawmakers now have the chance to not just reauthorize the cap-and-trade program beyond 2030, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/acrobat.adobe.com\/id\/urn:aaid:sc:VA6C2:58025a9f-1c97-4e5d-92cd-63bd127a1fa8\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">but to strengthen it<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> \u2014 delivering even greater benefits to California communities. The EDF\/Greenline report shows that strengthening the program\u2019s ambition could generate more revenue for clean energy and affordability programs, deliver greater savings to families, and create more good-paying jobs in every corner of the state.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">To achieve those outcomes, lawmakers must ensure that the statute provides clear direction about the ambition of the \u2018cap\u2019, or the state\u2019s overall limit on greenhouse gas pollution. That means aligning the program\u2019s declining emissions limit with California\u2019s 2045 carbon neutrality goal and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2025\/05\/05\/as-the-california-legislature-looks-to-reauthorize-cap-and-trade-they-cannot-forget-the-strongest-climate-safeguard-the-state-has-the-cap-itself\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">setting a cap trajectory that ensures emissions fall in line with the state\u2019s broader climate targets<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">But ambition on paper isn\u2019t enough. Reauthorization must be accompanied by a swift regulatory process so that updated rules are in place and regulators are ready to implement a reauthorized program. As we saw in last quarter\u2019s results, delays to reauthorization or to the rulemaking process contributes to<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2025\/02\/26\/delay-and-uncertainty-around-californias-core-pollution-cutting-program-is-costing-the-state-millions\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> market uncertainty<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, loss of revenue to the GGRF, and missing critical years of progress for emissions reductions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>This moment demands leadership. California has shown the nation what bold climate policy can look like. Now, lawmakers must build on that legacy by fighting for a stronger cap-and-trade program that invests in the health, prosperity, and resilience of all Californians.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As California lawmakers consider the future of the cap-and-trade program, they face a pivotal opportunity to deliver real and lasting benefits to communities across the state. At stake is not only California\u2019s continued leadership on climate, but also the potential to unlock major economic and affordability gains for Californians.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":151379,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[200,71676,107925,202,44],"tags":[],"coauthors":[107971,107958],"class_list":["post-24885","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-california","category-carbon-markets","category-cities-and-states","category-greenhouse-gas-emissions","category-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Despite lower revenue due to program uncertainty, a stronger, long-term Cap and Trade promises to strengthen investments in California - Climate 411<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As California lawmakers consider the future of the cap-and-trade program, they face a pivotal opportunity to deliver real and lasting benefits to communities across the state. 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