{"id":20849,"date":"2021-01-06T09:11:13","date_gmt":"2021-01-06T14:11:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/?p=20849"},"modified":"2021-02-18T09:51:31","modified_gmt":"2021-02-18T14:51:31","slug":"measuring-true-impact-of-colorados-climate-delay-minding-emissions-gap-part-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2021\/01\/06\/measuring-true-impact-of-colorados-climate-delay-minding-emissions-gap-part-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Measuring the true impact of Colorado\u2019s climate delay: Minding the emissions gap (Part 2)"},"content":{"rendered":"

After Colorado legislators passed landmark climate legislation in 2019, which included a statutory mandate directing the <\/em>Air Quality Control Commission (AQCC) <\/em>to adopt rules and regulations to reduce statewide emissions, the state has yet to even propose a policy framework capable of getting the job done. This three-part series<\/a> explores the impact of Colorado\u2019s delay, analyzing the impact on total emissions and the state\u2019s ability to meet its own climate targets.<\/em><\/p>\n

Editor’s note: This post was last updated Jan. 19. 2021 to reflect Colorado’s final greenhouse gas roadmap.<\/p>\n

\"Hayden<\/a>
Hayden Generating Station (Hayden Station), a coal-fired power plant near Hayden, Colorado. PC: Jeffrey Beall.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This year started with promising climate news in Colorado: The state\u2019s largest electric utility, Xcel Energy, announced<\/a> it will close two of its coal-fired units sooner than planned and support plant workers through retraining and retirement opportunities. While this is a step in the right direction for Colorado\u2019s clean energy future, much more policy action will be needed to meet the state\u2019s statutory emissions goals.<\/p>\n

In Part 1 of this series, EDF analysis uncovered the cumulative impact of the Colorado Air Quality Control Commission\u2019s (AQCC) inaction<\/em> on greenhouse gas emission reductions. Delays will have profound consequences for the total pollution that the state emits over the next decade, which could mean more severe long-term climate damages for Colorado communities and ecosystems. The AQCC\u2019s refusal to seriously evaluate policy mechanisms for much faster and deeper reductions flies in the face of what Colorado legislators mandated in 2019. They set a clear timeline for the AQCC to swiftly propose regulations and reduce statewide emissions 26% by 2025, 50% by 2030 and 90% by 2050<\/strong>, all relative to 2005 emissions.<\/p>\n

In Part 2 of this series, we dive into a recent EDF report<\/a> and analyses released by both the state and other researchers that reveal how Colorado is far off track from achieving these upcoming 2025 and 2030 statutory targets under current policies. The state\u2019s glaring \u2018emissions gaps\u2019 underscore the need for transformative leadership on a policy framework capable of securing the reductions consistent with its goals — and protecting Coloradans for generations to come.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Measuring the gaps<\/strong><\/h3>\n

It is worth repeating from Part 1 that near-term reductions in pollution matter enormously. Every decade, year, and day on our current trajectory\u2014failing to make the needed reductions particularly in long-lived climate pollutants\u2014will result in additional emissions building up in the atmosphere and more costly climate damages.<\/p>\n

Colorado\u2019s ability to meet its 2025 and 2030 goals will set the course \u2013 and determine the state\u2019s climate future \u2013 for the latter half of the century. Unfortunately, a recent report from EDF<\/a> analyzing progress across states with climate commitments found that Colorado is far off course from where it needs to be. Under current policy adopted through January 2021, and capturing\u00a0 Xcel Energy’s announcement to fully retire the Hayden Generating Station no later than the end of 2028, EDF\u2019s analysis reveals the state is only expected to reduce emissions from 2005 levels by 7-16% in 2025 and 19-26% in 2030. In other words, Colorado faces an emissions gap of net<\/strong> 13-24 MMT CO2<\/sub>e in 2025 and net 31-40 MMT CO2<\/sub>e in 2030, depending on how quickly emissions rebound from the pandemic.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Figures 1-3 below illustrate Colorado\u2019s emissions gaps using three different estimates of historical emissions to establish the target emissions levels. Since Colorado\u2019s targets are determined relative to emissions in 2005, the estimate of historical baseline emissions determines the target. Figure 1 shows the emissions gap using historical estimates based on EDF\u2019s analysis using data from Rhodium Group\u2019s U.S. Climate Service. Figure 2 uses the comparable 2005 baseline from Colorado\u2019s official Greenhouse Gas Inventory<\/a>. In Figure 3, the state\u2019s unofficial new baseline data moves the goalpost for reduction targets, but still reveals a substantial gap. In all three figures, future projections are based on EDF\u2019s analysis using data from Rhodium Group\u2019s U.S. Climate Service.<\/p>\n

Figure 1: Colorado Economy-Wide Net Emissions and Targets<\/strong>
\n<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Emissions presented in Figure 1 are estimated using the IPCC Fourth Assessment\u2019s 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP) values. Figures 1-3 illustrate data that varies slightly from EDF\u2019s recent whitepaper. The data presented in EDF\u2019s whitepaper accounted for the AQCC\u2019s November decision to accelerate three coal plant retirements. After publishing the analysis, the AQCC has since reversed their decision and those additional emissions are reflected in the data presented in this blog. The current data also reflects Xcel Energy\u2019s January 2021 announcement with updated coal plant retirement dates. All coal plant retirements adjusted from the Rhodium group projections are assumed to be replaced fully with zero emission capacity.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Figure 2: <\/strong>Colorado Economy-Wide Net Emissions and Targets, Adjusted with the State\u2019s 2019 GHG Inventory Baseline<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Emissions presented in Figure 2 are estimated using IPCC AR4 100-year GWP values.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Figure 3:<\/strong> Colorado Economy-Wide Net Emissions and Targets, Adjusted with the State\u2019s Roadmap Baseline<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Colorado<\/a>
For comparability, we adjusted future emissions projections in Figure 3 to use IPCC AR5 100-year GWP values, consistent with the Roadmap\u2019s historical emissions estimates.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Any way you look at EDF\u2019s updated analysis, Colorado\u2019s current trajectory falls significantly short of fulfilling its climate commitments, absent more ambitious policy action to reduce emissions.<\/p>\n

Other analyses from other organizations and the state reach a consistent conclusion. Tables 1 and 2 compare net emissions gaps from various analyses, including the Polis administration (in the 2019 Colorado GHG Emissions Inventory<\/a> and the \u201cRoadmap<\/a>\u201d), Resources for the Future<\/a>, M.J. Bradley & Associates<\/a>, and NRDC, Sierra Club, Evolved Energy Research, and GridLab<\/a>. For background, the analyses pull the 2005 baseline emissions from two sources: the CO GHG Inventory and the revised baseline developed for the CO Roadmap. The EDF A, M.J. Bradley & Associates and RFF analyses use baseline emissions as reported in the CO GHG Inventory. The EDF B, CO Roadmap analyses and the NRDC\/Sierra Club report use the revised baseline.<\/p>\n

Table 1: Net Emissions Gaps in Colorado, 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"2025<\/a>
1 Assumes Rhodium Group\u2019s V-shaped economic recovery scenario. 2 Gross emissions adjusted to net emissions. 3 In these analyses, emissions are estimated using the IPCC Fifth Assessment\u2019s 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP) values instead of AR4 values. See here<\/a> for full methodology.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Table 2: Net Emissions Gaps in Colorado, 2030<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"2030<\/a>
1 Assumes Rhodium Group\u2019s V-shaped economic recovery scenario. 2 Gross emissions adjusted to net emissions. 3 In these analyses, emissions are estimated using the IPCC Fifth Assessment\u2019s 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP) values instead of AR4 values. See here<\/a> for full methodology.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

While projections vary based on assumptions that go into the analysis, the takeaway is the same: Colorado\u2019s current policies are not enough to meet its quickly approaching deadlines in 2025 and 2030. <\/strong>This holds true even when significantly underestimating the task at hand. Governor Polis\u2019 recently released draft \u201cGreenhouse Gas Pollution Reduction Roadmap<\/a>\u201d unfortunately includes a \u201c2019 Action Scenario\u201d that is positioned as a \u201cbusiness-as-usual\u201d (BAU) emissions trajectory despite being based on aspirations that are not backed up by current law. For example, the state assumes that<\/a>\u2014without any binding policies\u2014it would achieve its goal of 940,00 electric vehicles on the road by 2030.<\/p>\n

Time is running out<\/strong><\/h3>\n

While Colorado is not the only state falling behind on meeting its commitments, it does stand out in one critical way. Colorado is one of 24 states, plus Puerto Rico, that have joined the U.S. Climate Alliance<\/a>, a bipartisan coalition committed to implementing policies that advance the goals of the Paris Agreement, including achieving reductions of at least 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025 \u2014the intended near-term contribution<\/a> for the U.S. Louisiana, too, has made a commitment to reduce emissions to similar levels by 2025, though it is not formally a part of the alliance. Many of these states also have committed, either by executive order or in statute, to additional reductions by 2030 and 2050.<\/p>\n

Beneath the high-level commitments, EDF\u2019s report<\/a> shows that, collectively, states that have made climate commitments are not on track<\/strong> <\/em>to cut emissions consistent with critical science-based reduction trajectories by 2030. They are also off track for achieving the original U.S. commitment under the Paris Agreement for 2025. Yet unlike most other states with these climate commitments, Colorado\u2019s environmental regulators have an express, statutory<\/em> directive requiring them to develop regulations to secure these emission reductions.<\/strong> They are required by law to meet these targets \u2013 and Coloradans are counting on it.<\/p>\n

From the west slope to metro Denver, polling shows overwhelming support<\/a> for the AQCC to adopt strong rules within the next year that will\u00a0guarantee<\/em>\u00a0that the state hits its carbon emissions targets\u2014underscoring a demand for action that has only grown with record-breaking wildfires and unsafe breathing conditions plaguing the state for much of the second half of 2020.<\/p>\n

Analysis after analysis, as well as polling, all highlight the urgent need for a comprehensive policy framework that can cut emissions at the pace and scale required under law. The Polis administration and AQCC are running out of time to deliver the leadership that Colorado needs. <\/strong><\/p>\n

In Part 3<\/a> of this series, we\u2019ll break down EDF\u2019s new petition for a legally-binding, declining emissions limit across Colorado\u2019s major sources of climate pollution and how it can help the state deliver on its goals.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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