{"id":20778,"date":"2020-12-16T15:45:10","date_gmt":"2020-12-16T20:45:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/?p=20778"},"modified":"2020-12-16T15:45:10","modified_gmt":"2020-12-16T20:45:10","slug":"what-the-next-5-years-hold-for-the-paris-agreement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2020\/12\/16\/what-the-next-5-years-hold-for-the-paris-agreement\/","title":{"rendered":"What the next 5 years hold for the Paris Agreement"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Eiffel Tower at sunset. (Source: Pixy<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Last Saturday, December 12, was the fifth anniversary of the Paris climate agreement, and countries around the world gave it a proper (virtual) f\u00eate<\/em>, filled with announcements on how countries planned to step up their action to curb climate change. Although some of the announcements represented modest steps forward, the overall effect of the event was to capture the growing climate momentum of recent months<\/a> rather than break new ground.<\/p>\n

The event also got many observers thinking back to that other Saturday in Paris, five years ago, when the agreement was approved \u2013 and, inevitably, weighing what the future will bring for the accord.<\/p>\n

As we head into 2021 and draw closer to the annual international climate negotiations in Glasgow next November (known as COP26), three issues will increasingly dominate the discussion: the need for greater ambition<\/strong> in setting the next round of targets; a shift from negotiations to implementation<\/strong>, not only at national level but also among key global sectors like aviation and shipping; and the enduring importance of the rules for monitoring and reporting emissions, known as the \u201cenhanced transparency<\/strong> framework.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ambition<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The commitments countries have made so far do not put the world on track to meet the Paris Agreement goal of holding temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius, and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees, since the industrial revolution. Much deeper reductions are needed.<\/p>\n

The good news is that the agreement explicitly establishes a cycle of ambition<\/em>: It was designed in anticipation that more ambition would be needed over time.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s known informally as the \u201cratchet mechanism\u201d: Article 4 of the Paris Agreement says that countries will revise their emissions targets \u2013 known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) \u2013 and communicate them every 5 years. And it specifies that each successive NDC will represent a progression beyond the current target and reflect the highest possible ambition \u2013 meaning deeper cuts and broader coverage.<\/p>\n

At COP26, countries must submit new or updated NDCs. And that is forcing a renewed conversation about ambition. This is the first crank of the ratchet.<\/p>\n

Indeed, a number of countries have already made promising commitments in recent months, including:<\/p>\n