{"id":18739,"date":"2018-08-07T14:13:26","date_gmt":"2018-08-07T19:13:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/?p=18739"},"modified":"2018-08-08T12:43:51","modified_gmt":"2018-08-08T17:43:51","slug":"administration-cooks-the-books-to-justify-rollback-of-the-clean-car-standards","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/08\/07\/administration-cooks-the-books-to-justify-rollback-of-the-clean-car-standards\/","title":{"rendered":"Administration Cooks the Books to Justify Rollback of the Clean Car Standards"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-18663\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/2018\/07\/512px-I-80_Eastshore_Fwy-300x216.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"385\" height=\"277\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/2018\/07\/512px-I-80_Eastshore_Fwy-300x216.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/2018\/07\/512px-I-80_Eastshore_Fwy.jpg 512w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 385px) 100vw, 385px\" \/>This post was written by EDF consultant Chester France, who served as a Senior Executive at EPA and led the development of vehicle standards at the agency<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The Trump administration is now trying to roll back the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.edf.org\/federal-clean-car-standards\">Clean Car Standards<\/a> \u2013 a proven American success story created with a mountain of evidence to support it.<\/p>\n<p>From 2009 through 2016, the U.S. government published 10,000 pages of information proving that the Clean Car standards are feasible and cost effective. That\u2019s the most comprehensive and rigorous U.S. automotive technology analysis ever conducted.<\/p>\n<p>Rather than building on that massive technical record, <a href=\"https:\/\/protect-us.mimecast.com\/s\/oZgFCOYZDvhp4lonCvB3tg?domain=epa.gov\">the proposal<\/a> released on Thursday\u00a0indicates that the Trump administration has embraced shoddy and biased analysis to support its desired eight-year freeze of the Clean Car Standards at essentially 2018 levels through 2026.<\/p>\n<p>The analysis attempting to justify the proposed rollback is a stunning 180-degree reversal of what the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Department of Transportation (DOT) had found over the last decade. For instance:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>As recently as 2016, EPA and DOT found that the standards through 2025 would have <a href=\"https:\/\/protect-us.mimecast.com\/s\/qSYGCPNYEwuKM9qWH142Cy?domain=nepis.epa.gov\">net societal benefits<\/a> of <strong>almost $100 billion<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>Now, the administration wants us to believe the same standards will have <a href=\"https:\/\/protect-us.mimecast.com\/s\/JpJuCQWOGxCkrgmOikxQYV?domain=epa.gov\">net societal costs<\/a> of <strong>$200 billion<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>That\u2019s a change of almost $300 billion.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The only way to achieve such a massive analytical flip-flop is to \u201ccook the books\u201d \u2013 by manipulating design elements and input assumptions in the modeling tool \u2013 until the Trump administration arrived at the answers that it wants.<\/p>\n<p>And it\u2019s clear the Trump administration had answers it wanted from the beginning. EDF <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/2018\/07\/Page-286-from-Production-Set-3-May-11_2018-MTE-FOIA.pdf\">uncovered an email<\/a> proving that a long-standing climate denier within the Trump administration had \u2013 at the urging of the White House \u2013 directed EPA staff to immediately roll back the Clean Car Standards on <strong>February 7, 2017<\/strong>. That email reflects a purely political decision within weeks of the President\u2019s inauguration in 2017 \u2013 before anyone could have conducted any analysis of the benefits of the program. The facts had no bearing then, and clearly still do not now.<\/p>\n<p>Our experts have identified scores of changes improperly biased in the direction of weakening the standards and making them appear less cost effective. Here are just a few of the most egregious examples:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\"><!--more--><strong>1. Highly deceptive safety claims<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The administration projects that freezing the Clean Car Standards for eight years would reduce total fatalities from driving. This finding is based almost exclusively on the projection that flatlining the standards will result in Americans voluntarily driving less because they will have to spend more on gasoline.<\/p>\n<p>Driving fewer miles reduces the risks of accidents and fatalities, of course, but that lost mobility is a harm to society. It reflects the lost trips to visit family, get to work, or go on vacation that this administration anticipates under its proposed, gutted standards.<\/p>\n<p>The appropriate metric for evaluating safety, and the one DOT has historically used, is a fatality rate that is measured in comparison to the number of miles that we drive our cars \u2013 that is, fatalities <em>per billion miles traveled<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>By that metric, the Clean Car Standards\u2019 impact on driving has <strong>no meaningful effect on vehicle safety<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The linchpin of the Trump administration\u2019s bizarre logic is that the government should make cars more polluting and substantially less fuel efficient to discourage Americans from driving.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\"><strong>2. Phantom miles traveled<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>When you unpack the administration\u2019s claims about how much less Americans will drive under the rollback of the Clean Car Standards \u2014 which, again, is a key source of their misleading safety claims \u2014 the numbers don\u2019t add up.<\/p>\n<p>The administration projects that freezing the standards for eight years will mean that Americans will drive <em>three trillion fewer miles<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>A little more than half\u00a0of this reduced mobility is due to the \u201creverse rebound effect.\u201d That\u2019s the economic theory that people will drive less when the cost of driving increases \u2013 whether due to lower fuel economy, increased gas prices, or other factors. However, the administration has doubled the miles associated with this effect by claiming the rebound effect is now <strong>twice as high as previously understood.<\/strong> At least one prominent economic consulting firm, the Analysis Group, <a href=\"https:\/\/protect-us.mimecast.com\/s\/fn7dCR6LJycvBo8EuqT4b7?domain=analysisgroup.com\">recently concluded<\/a> that the latest literature does <em>not <\/em>support the very high rebound effect assumed in the latest Trump administration analysis.<\/p>\n<p>The remaining reduced mobility has <em>no discernible rationale<\/em> \u2013 not from common sense or economic theory \u2013 and appears to be an inexplicable artifact of poor model design. These are simply \u201cphantom miles.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The phantom miles alone bias the cost benefit analysis by as much as $140 billion. DOT is projecting about $120 billion in benefits from the monetization of reduced fatalities and non-fatal crash injuries due to the lower miles traveled calculated from the phantom inflated baseline, and about $20 billion in benefits from reduced congestion calculate from those same flawed numbers.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, DOT assumes there is <em>no societal cost<\/em> associated with Americans driving less.<\/p>\n<p>The bottom line is that most of this reduced mobility \u2014 all of the phantom miles and some of the excessively high reverse rebound effect miles \u2014 is preposterous and undermines the credibility of the entire modelling exercise.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\"><strong>3. Wildly exaggerated vehicle technology cost<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In July 2016,<a href=\"https:\/\/protect-us.mimecast.com\/s\/qSYGCPNYEwuKM9qWH142Cy?domain=nepis.epa.gov\"> EPA projected<\/a> incremental vehicle technology costs of $900 to meet its Clean Car Standard for model year 2025 vehicles, while DOT estimated $1,200.<\/p>\n<p>Now, just two years later, <a href=\"https:\/\/protect-us.mimecast.com\/s\/GfooCVONjDHx9m13tkJIi6?domain=epa.gov\">DOT is projecting<\/a> vehicle technology costs of $2,340 \u2013 approximately <em>double<\/em> their own projection in 2016, and <em>two-and-a-half times<\/em> the recent EPA projection.<\/p>\n<p>These projections are caused by a number of model flaws \u2013 in particular, a reliance on obsolete data (in some cases, engine and transmission maps that are several years old) that yield overly pessimistic technology, cost, and redesign cycle assumptions.<\/p>\n<p>The flawed model also includes numerous improbable assumptions that artificially force highly irrational and inefficient \u201cchoices,\u201d including:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Prohibiting the use of some technologies that are already available and on the market<\/li>\n<li>Assuming minimal use of credit trading (which makes compliance cheaper) \u2013 both by minimizing automaker car-truck trading (the standards allow an automaker who generates credits on its cars to offset debits on its trucks, and vice versa) and by minimizing trading between companies (one automaker can purchase credits from another automaker)<\/li>\n<li>Not allowing manufacturers to exclude a costly technology even when it is redundant<\/li>\n<li>Using a flawed vehicle technology cost optimization algorithm \u2014 which means the simulation does not choose the most cost-effective compliance pathways based on available technologies<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The indefensible $2,340 vehicle technology cost projection <em>alone<\/em> accounts for about $150 billion in extra costs \u2013 or <em>about half<\/em> of the $300 billion change relative to what DOT projected in 2016.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\"><strong>4. Blatant internal inconsistencies<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Throughout the model, there are major inconsistencies with how people are assumed to behave within certain modules.<\/p>\n<p>For example:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>In the module that examines vehicle sales, consumers are assumed to care about vehicle cost and not fuel savings.<\/li>\n<li>In the rebound module, consumers are assumed to care about fuel savings and not vehicle cost.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In each of these modules, DOT has consistently chosen the assumption that makes the current standards look more costly, even when it causes logical inconsistencies and disparities with other parts of the model.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Trump administration\u2019s proposal cooks the books to justify gutting a highly successful program<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Clean Car Standards are one of the most important actions taken by any country to address climate change. They are a made-in-America success story, spurring new technology innovation that strengthens America\u2019s economic competitiveness and creates jobs, while also creating large pollution reductions and oil savings, saving Americans money on gasoline, and helping automakers achieve their current high sales and profits.<\/p>\n<p>Rolling back the Clean Car Standards would be a terrible mistake.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This post was written by EDF consultant Chester France, who served as a Senior Executive at EPA and led the development of vehicle standards at the agency &nbsp; The Trump administration is now trying to roll back the Clean Car Standards \u2013 a proven American success story created with a mountain of evidence to support &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-18739","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - 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