{"id":18508,"date":"2018-04-09T11:01:57","date_gmt":"2018-04-09T16:01:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/?p=18508"},"modified":"2019-02-25T16:02:55","modified_gmt":"2019-02-25T21:02:55","slug":"cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/","title":{"rendered":"Cherry blossoms: Predicting peak bloom in a warming world with weirder weather"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>
USDA photo by Scott Bauer<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Every March, Washington D.C. anxiously anticipates the arrival of the city\u2019s world-famous cherry blossoms.<\/p>\n

Millions of people flood the National Mall each year to observe the \u201cpeak bloom\u201d \u2013 defined by the National Park Service as the day when 70 percent of the Yoshino cherry blossoms surrounding the Tidal Basin have opened.<\/p>\n

Fluctuating weather patterns render predictions of peak bloom notoriously fickle. Experts consider it impossible to accurately estimate the cherry blossoms\u2019 vibrant debut more than 10 days in advance<\/a>. And 2018 was no exception with the peak bloom date predictions changing three times<\/a>.<\/p>\n

While bloom forecasting is a historically temperamental exercise, climate change is now further complicating matters.<\/p>\n

As global average surface temperatures continue to rise, D.C. has felt the heat. Weather station measurements from the city have recorded a 1.6 degree Celsius per century<\/a> increase in regional temperature \u2013 double the global average warming rate. The warmer winters associated with these increasing temperatures may help explain why between 1921 and 2016 peak bloom dates have shifted earlier by about five days<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A warming regional climate may influence seasonal trends, but blooms are still heavily affected by short term changes in the weather. While 2018 peak bloom was originally projected to occur<\/a> between March 17th<\/sup>\u00a0 and 20th<\/sup> \u2013 early in the season due to the city\u2019s exceptionally warm February \u2013 a major snowstorm and cold temperatures persisting through March delayed the arrival until April 5th<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

It may initially seem that heavy snowstorms and colder temperatures are inconsistent with climate change. However, there is a growing body of evidence that shows how changes in atmospheric circulation patterns associated with rapid warming in the Arctic may actually be linked to these dramatic cold snaps<\/a> in the mid-latitudes. Increased moisture in the atmosphere from a warming world also allows for heavier precipitation events, including snowfall.<\/p>\n

These opposing consequences of climate change \u2013 hotter temperatures with intermittent cold snaps \u2013 make the bloom schedule of D.C.\u2019s cherry blossoms even more complex. But one thing is clear: predictions will certainly not get any easier.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Every March, Washington D.C. anxiously anticipates the arrival of the city\u2019s world-famous cherry blossoms. Millions of people flood the National Mall each year to observe the \u201cpeak bloom\u201d \u2013 defined by the National Park Service as the day when 70 percent of the Yoshino cherry blossoms surrounding the Tidal Basin have opened. Fluctuating weather patterns …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":123360,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[95,52,20,42],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-18508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-basic-science-of-global-warming","category-extreme-weather","category-news","category-science"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCherry blossoms: Predicting peak bloom in a warming world with weirder weather - Climate 411<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Cherry blossoms: Predicting peak bloom in a warming world with weirder weather - Climate 411\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Every March, Washington D.C. anxiously anticipates the arrival of the city\u2019s world-famous cherry blossoms. Millions of people flood the National Mall each year to observe the \u201cpeak bloom\u201d \u2013 defined by the National Park Service as the day when 70 percent of the Yoshino cherry blossoms surrounding the Tidal Basin have opened. Fluctuating weather patterns ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Climate 411\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-04-09T16:01:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-02-25T21:02:55+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/2018\/04\/Washington_C_D.C._Tidal_Basin_cherry_trees-660x1024.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Casey Ivanovich\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Casey Ivanovich\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/09\\\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/09\\\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Casey Ivanovich\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/5247aaa8f951eb54be8e609c8873e0e0\"},\"headline\":\"Cherry blossoms: Predicting peak bloom in a warming world with weirder weather\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-04-09T16:01:57+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-02-25T21:02:55+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/09\\\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":357,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/09\\\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/wp-content\\\/blogs.dir\\\/7\\\/files\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/Washington_C_D.C._Tidal_Basin_cherry_trees-660x1024.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Basic Science of Global Warming\",\"Extreme Weather\",\"News\",\"Science\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/09\\\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/09\\\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/09\\\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\\\/\",\"name\":\"Cherry blossoms: Predicting peak bloom in a warming world with weirder weather - Climate 411\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/09\\\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/09\\\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/wp-content\\\/blogs.dir\\\/7\\\/files\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/Washington_C_D.C._Tidal_Basin_cherry_trees-660x1024.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-04-09T16:01:57+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-02-25T21:02:55+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/5247aaa8f951eb54be8e609c8873e0e0\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/09\\\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/09\\\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/09\\\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/wp-content\\\/blogs.dir\\\/7\\\/files\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/Washington_C_D.C._Tidal_Basin_cherry_trees-660x1024.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"http:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/wp-content\\\/blogs.dir\\\/7\\\/files\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/Washington_C_D.C._Tidal_Basin_cherry_trees-660x1024.jpg\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/09\\\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Cherry blossoms: Predicting peak bloom in a warming world with weirder weather\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/\",\"name\":\"Climate 411\",\"description\":\"Blogging the science and policy of global warming\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/5247aaa8f951eb54be8e609c8873e0e0\",\"name\":\"Casey Ivanovich\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/ffcdae993abb79be81e65b27ab57e8e220733dea210b5c8cb24866aded557aa8?s=96&d=mm&r=g715ac889e9a34319ecd72f15937e39da\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/ffcdae993abb79be81e65b27ab57e8e220733dea210b5c8cb24866aded557aa8?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/ffcdae993abb79be81e65b27ab57e8e220733dea210b5c8cb24866aded557aa8?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Casey Ivanovich\"},\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.edf.org\\\/climate411\\\/author\\\/cinanovich\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Cherry blossoms: Predicting peak bloom in a warming world with weirder weather - Climate 411","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Cherry blossoms: Predicting peak bloom in a warming world with weirder weather - Climate 411","og_description":"Every March, Washington D.C. anxiously anticipates the arrival of the city\u2019s world-famous cherry blossoms. Millions of people flood the National Mall each year to observe the \u201cpeak bloom\u201d \u2013 defined by the National Park Service as the day when 70 percent of the Yoshino cherry blossoms surrounding the Tidal Basin have opened. Fluctuating weather patterns ...","og_url":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/","og_site_name":"Climate 411","article_published_time":"2018-04-09T16:01:57+00:00","article_modified_time":"2019-02-25T21:02:55+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/2018\/04\/Washington_C_D.C._Tidal_Basin_cherry_trees-660x1024.jpg","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Casey Ivanovich","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Casey Ivanovich","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/"},"author":{"name":"Casey Ivanovich","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/#\/schema\/person\/5247aaa8f951eb54be8e609c8873e0e0"},"headline":"Cherry blossoms: Predicting peak bloom in a warming world with weirder weather","datePublished":"2018-04-09T16:01:57+00:00","dateModified":"2019-02-25T21:02:55+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/"},"wordCount":357,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/2018\/04\/Washington_C_D.C._Tidal_Basin_cherry_trees-660x1024.jpg","articleSection":["Basic Science of Global Warming","Extreme Weather","News","Science"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/","url":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/","name":"Cherry blossoms: Predicting peak bloom in a warming world with weirder weather - Climate 411","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/2018\/04\/Washington_C_D.C._Tidal_Basin_cherry_trees-660x1024.jpg","datePublished":"2018-04-09T16:01:57+00:00","dateModified":"2019-02-25T21:02:55+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/#\/schema\/person\/5247aaa8f951eb54be8e609c8873e0e0"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/#primaryimage","url":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/2018\/04\/Washington_C_D.C._Tidal_Basin_cherry_trees-660x1024.jpg","contentUrl":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/7\/files\/2018\/04\/Washington_C_D.C._Tidal_Basin_cherry_trees-660x1024.jpg"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2018\/04\/09\/cherry-blossoms-predicting-peak-bloom-in-a-warming-world-with-weirder-weather\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Cherry blossoms: Predicting peak bloom in a warming world with weirder weather"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/#website","url":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/","name":"Climate 411","description":"Blogging the science and policy of global warming","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/#\/schema\/person\/5247aaa8f951eb54be8e609c8873e0e0","name":"Casey Ivanovich","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ffcdae993abb79be81e65b27ab57e8e220733dea210b5c8cb24866aded557aa8?s=96&d=mm&r=g715ac889e9a34319ecd72f15937e39da","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ffcdae993abb79be81e65b27ab57e8e220733dea210b5c8cb24866aded557aa8?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ffcdae993abb79be81e65b27ab57e8e220733dea210b5c8cb24866aded557aa8?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Casey Ivanovich"},"url":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/author\/cinanovich\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18508","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/123360"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18508"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18508\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18508"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=18508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}