{"id":151,"date":"2007-07-11T19:41:16","date_gmt":"2007-07-11T23:41:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2007\/07\/11\/global_warming_swindle\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T15:53:26","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T20:53:26","slug":"global_warming_swindle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2007\/07\/11\/global_warming_swindle\/","title":{"rendered":"Swindles in the “The Great Global Warming Swindle”"},"content":{"rendered":"

The author of today’s post, Lisa Moore<\/a>, is a scientist in the Climate and Air Program.<\/i><\/p>\n

In March of this year, British TV Channel 4 aired a 72-minute diatribe called “The Great Global Warming Swindle”. The program is filled with old data, data taken out of context, data misattributed, and general misinformation, and at the time it aired we thought it not worth responding to.<\/p>\n

But people keep mentioning it, so here are the program’s main arguments and why they’re wrong. Now the next time someone brings this up, you’ll have the facts to give them.<\/p>\n

Swindle: <\/b>Ice core data shows that higher CO2<\/sub> concentrations follow, rather than precede, temperature increases, therefore higher CO2<\/sub> concentrations don’t cause higher temperatures.<\/p>\n

The Truth:<\/b> The ice core observation is correct, but it doesn’t mean higher CO2<\/sub> concentrations don’t cause higher temperatures. It just means that other things can cause warming, too.<\/p>\n

Human impact on climate change has been statistically discernable for only the last 50 years. Prior to that, change was initiated by natural factors such as variations in solar energy output. But this warming then caused the release of CO2<\/sub> into the atmosphere, leading to more global warming. What the ice core data actually show is an amplification effect. Warming (however triggered) leads to the release of CO2<\/sub>, which causes more warming. (For more, see Bill’s previous post on “Causes of Past Climate Change<\/a>“.)<\/p>\n

\n

Swindle:<\/b> Sun spots show a near-perfect correlation with temperature over the last 400 years – the more sun spots the higher the temperature. This is because sun spots cause solar wind, solar wind prevents cosmic rays from reaching the earth, fewer cosmic rays mean fewer clouds, and fewer clouds mean more heat. This accounts for all climate change.<\/p>\n

The Truth:<\/b> Sun spots are a proxy for solar energy output, which is also influenced by solar flares and other phenomena. Solar energy output does affect global temperature, and it made a clear contribution to global warming until 50 years ago. But the temperature spike in the last 50 years cannot be explained by a change in solar energy output.<\/p>\n

As you can see in the graph below, solar output has not been trending upward since 1978.<\/p>\n

Source: Foukal et al. 2006. Variations in solar luminosity and their effect on the Earth’s climate. Nature<\/i> 443: 161-166.<\/span><\/p>\n

Neither have cosmic rays, but temperature is spiking.<\/p>\n

Sources: temperature data<\/a>, cosmic ray counts<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Swindle:<\/b> From 1900 to 1940, temperatures rose though CO2<\/sub> from industry was low. From 1940 to 1975, temperatures fell though CO2<\/sub> from industry was high. Therefore CO2<\/sub> does not drive temperature.<\/p>\n

The Truth:<\/b> CO2<\/sub> concentration is not the only factor influencing global temperature change, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a factor. Rising CO2<\/sub> concentrations from human activity have been detectably driving up global temperature for just the last 50 years. From 1900 to 1940, increased solar energy output accounted for higher temperatures. Temperatures fell from 1940 to 1975 because air pollution was dimming the sun<\/a>. After the Clean Air Act was passed in 1970, warming resumed.<\/p>\n

\n

Swindle:<\/b> Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas, and the effect of CO2<\/sub> is insignificant by comparison.<\/p>\n

The Truth: <\/b>Yes, water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas, but that doesn’t mean that the effect of CO2<\/sub> isn’t critical. When temperatures increase due to higher CO2<\/sub> concentrations, the atmosphere becomes more humid, thus amplifying the global warming effect. (For more, see Bill’s previous post on “The Water Vapor Fallacy<\/a>“.)<\/p>\n

\n

Swindle: <\/b>If greenhouse gases cause global warming, models say that the troposphere (lower atmosphere) should be warmer than the earth’s surface, but it isn’t.<\/p>\n

The Truth:<\/b> The troposphere is, in fact, warmer than the surface. A U.S. government commissioned study, released in 2006, showed there were errors in earlier measurements. (Amusingly, one of the study’s authors is John Christy, a scientist who is heavily quoted in the TV show.)<\/p>\n

\n

Swindle:<\/b> CO2<\/sub> concentrations in the past have been 3 to 10 times higher than what they are today, but this is not reflected in the “temperature reconstruction”. Therefore CO2<\/sub> does not cause global warming.<\/p>\n

The Truth:<\/b> CO2<\/sub> concentrations are higher today than they’ve been in the last 650,000 years<\/a>. And as noted elsewhere in the TV program, CO2<\/sub> concentration is strongly associated with global temperature.<\/p>\n

\n

Swindle:<\/b> Global warming will lead to prosperity, not catastrophe. This is demonstrated by the Medieval Warm Period, which was a very prosperous time.<\/p>\n

The Truth:<\/b> The so-called Medieval Warm Period was (1) not as warm as today, and (2) a local rather than global phenomenon. For more, see Bill’s previous post on the Medieval Warm Period<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\n

Swindle:<\/b> Storms and hurricanes are caused by the difference in temperature between the tropics and the poles, and with global warming this difference is less. Therefore global warming does not cause more intense storms and hurricanes.<\/p>\n

The Truth:<\/b> It’s true that the temperature difference between the tropics and poles is less with global warming, but it’s not true that this differential is what drives storm intensity. The factor that best predicts storm intensity is sea surface temperature – the warmer the seas, the stronger the storms. And there is no doubt that global warming is causing a rise in sea surface temperatures.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The author of today’s post, Lisa Moore, is a scientist in the Climate and Air Program. In March of this year, British TV Channel 4 aired a 72-minute diatribe called “The Great Global Warming Swindle”. 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