{"id":10,"date":"2007-02-09T11:47:05","date_gmt":"2007-02-09T16:47:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2007\/02\/09\/global_warming_solutions\/"},"modified":"2008-04-22T13:21:07","modified_gmt":"2008-04-22T18:21:07","slug":"global_warming_solutions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2007\/02\/09\/global_warming_solutions\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Warming Solutions that Work"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There was an interesting Op-Ed in the Washington Post Wednesday titled \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/article\/2007\/02\/06\/AR2007020601526.html\">Global Warming and Hot Air<\/a>,\u201d by Robert Samuelson.<\/p>\n<p>Samuelson is a smart guy who gets the science and asks the right questions on economics. And we <em>do<\/em> agree on the need for new technologies and clean energy options. The question is how to accomplish this.<\/p>\n<p><!--more-->Samuelson worries that:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Even with the best intentions, we can\u2019t take effective action today to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because we don\u2019t have adequate clean energy technology.<\/li>\n<li>Three-quarters of the projected increase in GHG emissions by 2030 is from developing countries like China, and they\u2019ll never cooperate because it would hurt their economies.<\/li>\n<li>Cap-and-trade is \u201cenvironmental grandstanding\u201d and would be a \u201cregulatory burden with little benefit.\u201d A tax on oil would be a better approach.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>None of these statements is true, but you don\u2019t have to take my word for it. I\u2019ll go over what the experts say on this.<\/p>\n<p>Samuelson\u2019s first argument is that we don\u2019t have the technology to meet energy demands and reduce GHG emissions without inconveniencing people and crippling economies. Apparently Samuelson has not seen the literature on this topic.<\/p>\n<p>In a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.princeton.edu\/~cmi\/research\/ghgt\/GHGT-7_poster_color_figures_7-1-04.pdf\">seminal paper [pdf]<\/a> in the journal <em>Science<\/em>, Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow showed that the problem can be addressed with at least 15 existing technologies and policy options (called \u201cwedges\u201d). None of them requires us to give up our cars or our household amenities. Although no single wedge can get us to where we need to be, a combination of about seven can.<\/p>\n<p>The wedges include energy efficiency and conservation (there\u2019s a big opportunity here), wind and solar energy, biofuels, carbon sequestration in soils and forests (with potential profits for farmers), clean coal technology, and &#8211; if problems such as waste disposal can be resolved &#8211; nuclear power. The important point is that all these technologies are available today.<\/p>\n<p>Samuelson\u2019s next worry is that developing countries would never cooperate, but there\u2019s evidence against this. The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2007\/02\/07\/world\/asia\/07china.html?_r=3&amp;oref=slogin&amp;oref=slogin&amp;oref=slogin\"><em>New York Times<\/em> reported Wednesday<\/a> that China said it will cooperate if wealthier countries like the U.S. take the lead. It all depends on the approach. Last year the Swedish power company Vattenfall published a report describing a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.vattenfall.de\/www\/vf_com\/vf_com\/Gemeinsame_Inhalte\/DOCUMENT\/360168vatt\/386246envi\/Curbing_climate_report.pdf\">worldwide cooperation strategy [pdf]<\/a> that would reduce GHG emissions without burdening developing economies or developed economies. It works by phasing in developing economies as they reach a specified gross domestic product (GDP) threshold.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, let\u2019s turn to the cap-and-trade issue. Samuelson contends that a cap-and-trade system to stabilize CO<sub>2<\/sub> emissions will \u201cshut down the economy.\u201d But again, experts disagree. For example, the <em>Energy Journal, <\/em>published by the International Association for Energy Economics, reported that eight of ten global economy-energy-environment models predicted that the costs of stabilizing CO<sub>2<\/sub> concentrations would be <em>less than 1 percent<\/em> of global GDP between 2000 and 2100. (See \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.iaee.org\/en\/publications\/journal.aspx\">Endogenous Technological Change \u2013 Special Issue #1<\/a>\u201d.)<\/p>\n<p>But we don\u2019t need models to prove cap-and-trade can work. There is already proof in the marketplace: the U.S. Acid Rain Program. In the 1990s, the acid rain cap-and-trade program achieved 100 percent compliance at costs 75 percent below original estimates. (If people are interested, I\u2019ll detail what cap-and-trade is and how it works in a future post.)<\/p>\n<p>The time to take action is now. The CEOs of ten major corporations, including General Electric, DuPont and BP, formed the U.S. Climate Action Partnership with an <a href=\"http:\/\/www.us-cap.org\/ClimateReport.pdf\">action plan [pdf]<\/a> that calls for a mandatory cap on U.S. emissions (among other strategies) and states that \u201cclimate change challenge will create more economic opportunities than risks for the U.S. economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In a speech to the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt, economist Paul Volcker said, \u201cFirst of all, I don&#8217;t think (such a step) is going to have that much of an impact on the economy overall. Second of all, if you don&#8217;t do it, you can be sure that the economy will go down the drain in the next 30 years.\u201d (See <a href=\"http:\/\/www.iht.com\/articles\/ap\/2007\/02\/06\/business\/ME-FIN-Egypt-Volcker-Global-Warming.php\">article in International Herald Tribune<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p>So you can listen to voices of pessimism and negativity, or you can listen to people like Paul Volcker and Jeff Immelt, CEO of General Electric, and start getting the job done.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There was an interesting Op-Ed in the Washington Post Wednesday titled \u201cGlobal Warming and Hot Air,\u201d by Robert Samuelson. Samuelson is a smart guy who gets the science and asks the right questions on economics. And we do agree on the need for new technologies and clean energy options. The question is how to accomplish &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[108],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-10","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climate-change-legislation"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Global Warming Solutions that Work - Climate 411<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/climate411\/2007\/02\/09\/global_warming_solutions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global Warming Solutions that Work - Climate 411\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There was an interesting Op-Ed in the Washington Post Wednesday titled \u201cGlobal Warming and Hot Air,\u201d by Robert Samuelson. 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