Climate 411

A Decade of Cooler Temperatures?

Lisa MooreThis post is by Lisa Moore, Ph.D., a scientist in the Climate and Air program at Environmental Defense Fund.

An article in this week’s Nature predicts that Europe and North America will cool slightly over the next decade. No, this doesn’t mean that global warming has stopped.

The new paper describes a climate model that makes short-term (decadal) predictions based on ocean dynamics. The decade-long cooling is just a temporary offset to warming from human activity. After it passes, temperatures will begin climbing again. By 2030, the model forecasts the same global temperatures as the IPCC.

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Climate Bill Vote: 10 Senators to Watch

Sheryl CanterThis post is by Sheryl Canter, an online writer and editorial manager at Environmental Defense Fund.

The Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act is scheduled for Senate debate and vote the first week in June. We’re closer than we’ve ever been to passing legislation but we still have a long way to go (see our previous post, How a Bill Moves Through Congress).

The next month will be crucial, as we talk to senators who are still on the fence. Many are leaders whose management skills will be put to the test.

Who are they? Read our 10 Senators to Watch page to find out.

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CO2 and Methane Rose Sharply in 2007

Lisa MooreThis post is by Lisa Moore, Ph.D., a scientist in the Climate and Air program at Environmental Defense Fund.

Atmospheric CO2 is rising at an accelerating rate over time.Last week, NOAA released some disheartening numbers: both CO2 and methane increased sharply last year. Growth rates are increasing (see graph to the right).

The CO2 numbers weren’t a surprise. A paper with similar findings was published last November by a team that included a NOAA scientist. I wrote a blog post summarizing the study, which analyzed the reasons behind the trend (see Rise of Atmospheric Carbon is Accelerating).

The methane numbers, however, were disturbing. Until this year, methane levels have been essentially unchanged since 1998.

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What Economic Models Can Tell You

Nat KeohaneThis post is by Nat Keohane, Ph.D., director of economic policy and analysis at Environmental Defense Fund.

Last Friday, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce sponsored a panel discussion on the economic impact of climate change legislation. I was on the panel, along with Bob Shackleton of Congressional Budget Office, Francisco de la Chesnaye of Environmental Protection Agency, Margo Thorning of American Council for Capital Formation, and Anne Smith of CRA International.

In responding to questions about my recent study of how climate legislation will impact the economy, I made two key points:

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Corn Ethanol: Importance of Performance Standards

Robert BonnieThis post is by Robert Bonnie, Co-Director of the Land, Water and Wildlife Program at Environmental Defense Fund.

Corn FieldThe New York Times recently reported that thousands of farmers are dropping out of the federal government’s Conservation Reserve Program. The prices for corn and other crops are so high that conservation subsidies can’t compete with what farmers can make by planting the land. One reason for the high prices is the ethanol mandate in the energy bill Congress passed last year.

Shifts in land use from diverting food-producing land to grow crops for energy – called "indirect land-use change" – can potentially negate the environmental benefits of corn ethanol. There is still much debate on how to measure it, but no question it’s important to consider. One recent study published in Science (Searchinger et. al.) found that using croplands for biofuels causes a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions relative to gasoline when indirect land use change is taken into account.

Unintended consequences such as these highlight the danger of mandating a specific clean energy technology, and the importance of relying on performance standards instead.

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Why the Farm Bill Matters for Global Warming

Britt LundgrenThis post is by Britt Lundgren, an agricultural policy specialist at Environmental Defense Fund.

You may have heard about the gridlock over the 2008 Farm Bill, which was supposed to have been signed into law already, but hasn’t yet. Versions of the bill have passed both the House and the Senate. Now the bill is "in conference" to resolve differences over new spending and offsets to pay for the bill.

It’s unclear whether the conference will produce a bill that the President will sign. The President has repeatedly threatened a veto, saying he wants more reform of our antiquated system of crop subsidies (a point on which we strongly concur – see my guest post on Grist).

Still, there is much we stand to lose if Congress and the President can’t agree on a good a new Farm Bill. The 2008 bill includes significant new funding for the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s voluntary conservation incentives programs and renewable energy programs.

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