Roselyn is a senior expert in REDD+, forest governance, and climate policy and a Distinguished Humphrey Fellow of the U.S State Department. She currently serves as a Senior Advisor to EDF’s Forests team.
Photo: Leslie Von Pless/ EDF
Most of us working in nature conservation think of the quickly approaching COP30 in Belém, Brazil, as the “Nature COP.”
The last time that title was used was at COP26 in Glasgow — a post-pandemic gathering that re-energized climate action after a year of global lockdowns. Glasgow gave birth to the Lowering Emission’s by Accelerating Forest Finance (LEAF) Coalition’s first Letters of Intent with tropical forest countries, signaling unprecedented forest-finance momentum in the voluntary carbon market through an unusual blend of public and private finance. It also saw the launch of the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use, endorsed by over 140 countries pledging to halt and reverse forest loss by 2030, and the UK-led Forest, Agriculture and Commodity Trade (FACT) Dialogue, which charted a path toward deforestation-free commodity supply chains.
But even with these gains, the world has been falling short in recognizing and financing nature’s role in sustaining a livable planet.
Nature’s Unequal Share
Science is unequivocal: nature can deliver up to one-third of the emissions reductions needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals. Yet, despite this potential, nature receives only 3–5% of global climate finance. It continues to compete — often unsuccessfully — with other sectors for funding.
The imbalance is indefensible. Failing to invest in forests and ecosystems is not only short-sighted — it is self-destructive. The hopes and stakes are therefore high for COP30: we must deliver tangible outcomes and progress for sustainable large-scale climate finance for nature.
Brazil’s Ambition for a Forest COP
The Brazilian government has made clear its intent to make COP30 a turning point for nature. It has launched the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), expected to become operational in Belém with funding from both sovereign and private actors. The TFFF will reward tropical forest nations that maintain deforestation rates below 0.5%, paying $4 per hectare of standing forest and mobilizing up to $125 billion in investments. An important aspect of the TFFF, is the allocation of at least 20% of all payments received directly to IPLCs. At the recent UN General Assembly, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, pledged $1 billion to seed the facility — a bold signal inviting others to follow.
The TFFF, is no doubt a “COP30 baby”, to be born in full glory in Belém. However, it is envisaged to work hand in hand with seasoned initiatives such as jurisdictional REDD+ (JREDD). Hence, the evident collaboration of the Brazilian Government with the Forests & Climate Leaders’ Partnership (FCLP) and its roadmap for jurisdictional REDD+ (JREDD) finance. It stands alongside another milestone: the $1.7 billion Forest Tenure Pledge, made by governments and philanthropies to strengthen Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLCs) through direct finance and land rights.
The Stakes for COP30
COP30 must deliver a transformative leap in financing for forests and IPLCs. Tropical forest nations are rightly hoping for a COP with nature at the center — front, back, and sides. For too long, forest communities have sounded the alarm: finance must flow to address the real drivers of deforestation — illegal mining, logging, wildfires, and unsustainable agriculture — which today offer far higher short-term profits than conservation.
The opportunity cost of protecting forests is immense. More than a billion people depend directly on forests for their livelihoods. For them, deforestation means the loss of ancestral heritage, identity, food, water, and security. In truth, we all depend on forests — every breath of oxygen is a quiet gift from nature. The alternative — a world that must artificially produce oxygen because natural systems like forests and oceans have been so degraded, and a potential growing reliance on artificial carbon removal — borders on dystopian.
If COP30 delivers the much-needed progress, it could redefine the trajectory of global forest finance and restore faith in multilateral action. Specifically:
- Reaching the goal established in Baku last year to reach $1.3 trillion in climate finance. Scaling Jurisdictional REDD+ (JREDD), with positive market language in Article 6 standards, so countries that have invested years in readiness and monitoring, can finally benefit from meaningful rewards for verified emissions reductions.
- Operationalizing the TFFF with major financial commitments, complementing JREDD and rewarding countries for maintaining low deforestation.
- Launching a second phase of the Forest Tenure Pledge, expanding direct support for IPLCs and strengthening their capacity to manage funds and projects.
- Reinvigorate both compliance and voluntary carbon markets, restoring confidence and ensuring that nature-based credits command fair prices.
- Establishing ambitious and actionable “NDC 3.0s”, integrating nature more fully into national climate plans.
This is in no way exhaustive, but anticipatory based on the structure of dialogue and action all these years. It could even be that COP30 goes beyond these expectations.
The Cost of ‘Failure’
If COP30 does not deliver for nature, the setback could be historic. JREDD progress would stall, undermining years of investment in governance, measurement, and safeguards. The TFFF would falter, lacking the institutional foundation that JREDD provides. Indigenous and local communities — the ancestral stewards of forests — would justifiably feel betrayed.
Failure would also risk extinguishing trust in carbon markets. Already, the voluntary carbon market struggles to deliver fair prices for forest carbon, while language emerging from the Article 6.4 mechanism risks sidelining nature from compliance markets altogether. A weak outcome in Belém could push forest finance into paralysis — leaving both the billion people and the industries that depend on forests stranded in uncertainty.
A Call for Leadership
There is ample reason for hope. Brazil’s leadership is proactive, visible, and determined. Since assuming the incoming presidency, its government has championed the TFFF at every major climate forum — from London Climate Action Week to the Africa Climate Summit and New York Climate Week — weaving COP30’s forest ambition into bilateral and multilateral dialogues, embedded in an action agenda that includes stewarding forests, oceans and biodiversity. Importantly, many more nations should support the Brazilian Government to make COP30 a success for nature. The city of Belém — where the Amazon meets the Atlantic — is a fitting symbol of resilience and renewal. Let COP30 be remembered not just as another climate summit, but as the moment when humanity finally recognized that forests are not a sector — they are our shared survival system.