# The Kyoto Card Up George's Sleeve

*Published:* 2007-02-14
*Author:* Bill Chameides

*Newsweek* is running an article by George Will titled “[Inconvenient Kyoto Truths](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16960409/site/newsweek/)“. Will says, “It is time to call some bluffs … President Bush should give the world something amusing to watch. He should demand that the Senate vote on the \[Kyoto\] protocol.” He then goes on to say that America is *not* disproportionately responsible for global warming, that global warming isn’t necessarily such a bad thing, that we don’t know how to stop it anyway, and that any efforts to do so could cost “tens of trillions”. And for all these reasons, he says, the Kyoto protocol was correctly rejected by the U.S.

George Will is a smart guy, but in this case he’s wrong on all counts. His science is wrong, his economics are wrong, and most importantly, the issue today is not Kyoto!

- The U.S. is the world leader in global warming pollution. [Data from the U.S. Department of Energy](http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.htm) show the U.S. is responsible for 28 percent of the extra CO2 in the atmosphere today, China only 8 percent.
- Two thousand scientists from across the world say that global warming is “unequivocal” and what they describe is by no means a good thing. (See my previous post, “[What *is* the IPCC, anyway?](https://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/02/05/what-is-the-ipcc-anyway/)“)
- Most economic models project the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions at less than 1 percent of the world’s gross domestic product over 100 years. ([See this *Nature* article](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v441/n7091/full/441264b.html), part of their paid archive)
- Current technologies *can* reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For details, see my post “[Global Warming Solutions that Work](https://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/02/09/global_warming_solutions/)“.

Now for this Kyoto thing. It seems that whenever the George Wills of this world recognize they are losing ground, they dredge up Kyoto: *Kyoto was bad, so all action on global warming is bad*. This is a red herring. Let’s review the facts.

The Kyoto Protocol, which set an international regime for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, was signed in 1997 by 168 nations, including the U.S. The concept was right but the agreement was flawed. For example, it didn’t mandate action for developing countries like China. But it got the world on the right path.

The Senate never ratified the treaty, and President Bush pulled us out in 2001. The protocol entered into force in 2005 with the formal entrance of Russia, and expires in 2012 when all participating countries are required to meet their targets. The U.S. and Australia are the only developed nations not participating, and no one expects them to join at this point. For all intents and purposes, Kyoto is a done deal.

It’s a mistake to use Kyoto’s flaws to forestall discussion of the real issues. The issue facing the U.S. right now is whether to have its own meaningful climate policy, and if so, what form it will take. International negotiations will soon begin on the “son of Kyoto” – the protocol that kicks in when the Kyoto protocol expires. Will the U.S. play a role? What steps can we take to ensure that the U.S., China, and other countries will participate?

Let me know what you think.