Spreck Rosekrans is an Senior Analyst at EDF.

Why bother issuing a water supply forecast in October when the vast majority of California's rain and snow falls in the winter?

It is certainly true that reservoir storage levels are low after dry years in 2007 and 2008, and that we are all worried about how much rain and snow will fall in 2009. But it seems silly to make any prediction at all when winter will not begin for almost two months. It is a virtual certainty that State Water Project customers will receive supplies in excess of the initial allocation (15% of contract entitlement amounts) announced today by the Department of Water Resources.

The reason for issuing a forecast earlier than ever before appears to be that it is simply one more opportunity to advocate for new dams and a peripheral canal. Lester Snow, DWR's Director of the Department of Water Resources is clear on that point, stating that the initial allocation “… further dramatizes the urgent need for additional investments in water storage and conveyance infrastructure to assure an adequate and reliable water supply…”.

Tom Stienstra of the San Francisco Chronicle, in last Sunday's article "Drought, or water heist?" , agrees and disputes that it is appropriate to describe our current water supply situation as "a drought of epic proportions".

In fairness to DWR, they do point out that the lowest initial allocation of contractual entitlements ever, 10% in 1993, was later increased to 100%. But we contend it is meaningless to issue any water supply forecasts this early in the year. It would be more productive to wait until February (as does the federal Central Valley Project) when we have a better idea of water supply conditions.