Market Forces

Originally posted on EDF’s Energy Exchange.

The surge in natural gas production that has reshaped the American energy landscape has many in the commercial transportation sector considering whether to start shifting their heavy-duty vehicle fleets from diesel to natural gas fuel. Many are looking to an advantage in carbon dioxide emissions to justify the higher cost and reduced fuel efficiency of a natural gas vehicle.

But in fact, a study published today in Environmental Science & Technology finds that while there are pathways for natural gas trucks to achieve climate benefits, reductions in potent heat trapping methane emissions across the natural gas value chain are necessary, along with engine efficiency improvements. If these steps are not taken, switching truck fleets from diesel to natural gas could actually increase warming for decades.

Methane, the main ingredient in natural gas, has 84 times more warming power than CO₂ over a 20-year timeframe. Reducing emissions throughout the natural gas value chain is an important opportunity to reduce our overall greenhouse footprint.

Growing Body of Research

The new study examines several different types of engine technologies, and both liquefied and compressed natural gas fuels, and concludes that a conversion from diesel could lead to greater warming over the next 50 to 90 years before providing benefits to the climate.

These results align with an earlier paper published by EDF scientists in 2012 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), but reach these conclusions through updated and more detailed data, as well as analysis tackling a wider scope of vehicle sizes, engine technologies, and fuel types.

Pathway to Positive Climate Benefits

By examining a range of assumptions, the new study finds there are indeed pathways for heavy duty natural gas vehicles to achieve climate benefits, provided methane emissions across the value chain are reduced both upstream and at the vehicle level.

Improvements in fuel efficiency could help ensure these vehicles are climate friendly. Today’s natural gas truck engines are typically five to fifteen percent less efficient than diesel engines. Consuming more fuel for each mile traveled reduces the relative CO₂ savings. If that efficiency gap can be closed, natural gas trucks will fare that much better compared to diesel.

Upcoming Policy Opportunities

While emissions in the natural gas value chain are a serious challenge, they also represent an opportunity to achieve significant, cost-effective reductions in overall greenhouse gas emissions. Several policy mechanisms are in play that could improve the climate prospects of natural gas trucks. These include recently announced federal upstream methane regulations and upcoming federal fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas standards for heavy trucks.

More information is needed to estimate with confidence the current climate footprint of trucks, and to get a better understanding of methane loss along the natural gas value chain. Significant research is underway to update estimates of methane emissions across the U.S. natural gas system, including the ambitious scientific research effort to publish 16 field studies launched by EDF and its partners.

Advancing Understanding

The paper released today is distinct from this ongoing effort and does not use any data from those studies, but it serves complementary purposes: First, it emphasizes the importance of gathering more and better data on methane loss; second, one of its major contributions is the various “sensitivity analyses” it presents.

These ranges of potential results are designed to understand the implications of changing underlying assumptions about methane emissions and efficiency. Our new paper creates a framework to evaluate the climate impacts of a fuel switch to natural gas in the trucking sector as we gain better data on the magnitude and distribution of leakage and as both leakage and vehicle efficiency evolve due to policy changes and market dynamics.

Policymakers wishing to address climate change should use caution before promoting fuel switching to natural gas in the trucking sector until we are more certain about the magnitude of methane loss and have acted sufficiently to reduce emissions and improve natural gas engine efficiency.

For more detail on the paper released today, please see our Frequently Asked Questions.

Image Source: Flickr/TruckPR

This article was originally posted at California Dream 2.0.

Following today’s California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) board meeting, the next major milestone in California’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is on November 14^th, when California will hold the first auction of carbon allowances for the Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32) cap-and-trade program. EDF has closely followed the steps CARB has taken to prepare, including participating in their successful “practice auction” this past August.  In order to shed some light on the nuts and bolts of how these auctions will work and the process going forward, we’ve put together an Auction FAQ factsheet to help answer some basic questions.

Why is CARB Auctioning CO2 Allowances?

In terms of allowance distribution, the AB32 program includes a combination of free allocation and auctioned allowances.  While it is the cap that ensures that the targeted quantity of emission reductions are achieved – regardless of the choice of type of allowance distribution – there are important differences between auctioning and free allocation relating to issues such as transaction costs, market power, price certainty, and distribution of allowance value.

Perhaps most importantly, auctioning allowances creates proceeds that can be invested in a variety of ways to further the goals of AB32 – for example, financing emission reduction projects in either capped or uncapped sectors, keeping energy prices down, or preparing for the impacts of global warming.  In addition, twenty-five percent of proceeds are actually required to be used in ways that benefit disadvantaged communities.

Another advantage of auctioning CO₂ allowances is that it guarantees that all regulated entities have access to allowances on an equal footing. By holding an auction, California ensures that both large and small companies have access to allowances under the same terms, thus reducing the risk that the market becomes dominated by a few big players.

How the Auction Works

The California auction will be using a single-round, sealed-bid, uniform-price format. Under this format, companies submit confidential bids for a specific amount of allowances at specific prices (also called a bid schedule). The highest bidder is allocated their requested quantity of allowances first, then the second highest bidder, etc., until there are no more allowances.  Winning bidders receive the quantity of allowances they bid for at the uniform settlement price, which is determined as the value of the lowest winning bid – or more simply, the price at which the market clears. Regardless of their original bids, all winning bidders pay the same price. This auction format creates a clear market price, which is crucial for investors.

Using Auction Revenue to Further Emissions Reductions

There are abundant opportunities to invest the auction proceeds into sectors that deliver greenhouse gas reductions in California – from clean energy to clean transportation, energy storage and clean tech finance and investment. Not only do these investments further California’s greenhouse gas reduction goals, they can also provide considerable economic benefits, as well as substantial health co-benefits, while helping set California’s path towards sustainable economic growth. To learn more about investing AB32 auction proceeds to grow California’s clean economy, read the EDF Invest to Grow report.

Auctions will play an important role in California’s cap-and-trade program; they encourage a more stable market and create proceeds that can be used to make California’s efforts to cut climate change pollution even more effective. For more details about how the auctions are designed, how the bidding process works and what to expect on November 14th, see EDF’s Auction FAQ factsheet and the California Air Resources Board’s website (here).

By Emily Reyna. This article was originally posted at California Dream 2.0.

Last Thursday, California took an important step towards finalizing a major component of the state’s effort to cut climate change pollution, an economy wide cap-and-trade regulation that establishes a price on carbon pollution.  Along with an expert from EDF’s economics team, Jonathan Camuzeaux, I had the opportunity to participate in the first ever public “practice” auction for the Global Warming Solutions Act cap-and-trade program – and it was a runaway success.

The goal of yesterday’s practice was to test the new online exchange where users will be able to bid on “carbon allowances” starting in November of this year.

EDF decided to submit the paperwork to be among the first users to test the new auction system since there is a lot riding on the cap-and-trade program working. Once fully operational, California’s cap-and-trade market will introduce the most cost-effective way to reduce climate pollution, protect public health, and spur clean tech innovation.

Here’s how it worked:

During the practice auction we walked through a checklist of 33 tasks EDF designed to test the functionality of the system. What we found was that the auction system run by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) works much like other secure websites, such as that of an on-line bank or retailer.  Users sign in with a secure username and password and during the pre-determined open hours (bidding window), bidders place an order for as many emissions allowances as they want to buy, though only a certain number will actually be sold.  Bids from other organizations are rightfully kept private and hidden from view – making this a “sealed-bid” auction platform that is based on the system designed and currently in use in North America’s other cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution in the Northeast.

During the bidding window, users were free to modify or rescind bids.  Once the bidding window closed all bids were final.  Since yesterday was only practice though, no money was actually exchanged or allowances sold once the bidding ended.

Our assessment:

From top to bottom, the AB 32 cap-and-trade auction system was easy and straightforward to use. Though we witnessed a few minor annoyances – such as being able to upload multiple bids at one time but only being able to delete one at a time – all of the market critical aspects were running well from our vantage point.  The next step will be for CARB to evaluate the bids and determine which are accepted and rejected based on the publically available market rules.

In all, after three hours of testing, our consensus is that the system works, and works well. California is ready to launch a new era of innovation, job creation, and economic stability. It is inspiring to see California taking climate action, and we believe success here will inspire other states, regions, and nations to develop similar climate programs.