Government negotiators met in Montreal last week to seek agreement on a global cap on carbon pollution from international aviation. Bilateral negotiations are continuing, and text of a draft resolution is expected to be considered at the triennial meeting of the UN’s International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in early October.
In anticipation of these meetings, Carbon & Climate Law Review (CCLR), a broadly-read journal catering to climate insiders, just released a special issue on international aviation. Experts illustrate the need for and feasibility of a strong market-based measure. Here are some highlights from the special issue:
Aviation’s impact on climate is understated
Aviation’s total global warming impacts are more than double those estimated from its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, or equivalent to roughly 5% of total radiative forcing from CO2. Nitrogen oxide emissions and aviation’s impacts on clouds add significantly to the warming effect of carbon dioxide. Without new policies, aviation emissions could compromise the goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit the increase in global temperatures to 1.5 – 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Climate change increases risks to aviation safety, infrastructure, and operations
Aviation pollution causes harm to the climate, but a warming climate also creates challenges for aviation safety and operations.
According to industry experts, in high temperatures, planes can’t carry as much. Airports risk damage to runways from storm surge and rising sea levels. Passengers and crew may be exposed to more turbulence. New electronics, sensing, and communication technology may be needed to reduce the risk of exposure to severe weather.
The solution: a market-based measure
To contain aviation’s impacts on climate change, experts from industry, policy, and law call for a market-based measure to cap emissions from international flights.
A market-based measure can be established and enforced under existing law
Legal experts recommend that an MBM can be established as a set of “standard” under the existing Chicago Convention, the foundational treaty for international aviation. Compliance with existing standards is good but not perfect. The experts show how market entry conditions, domestic transportation statutes, and conditions imposed by aviation financial services and trade associations can be used to bolster compliance.
A market-based measure should provide broad coverage and deliver co-benefits
Expert contributors to the issue recommend that the coverage of the MBM be broad. They caution that exemptions from a market-based measure could distort the market and disproportionately benefit the wealthiest individuals in those countries.
Other contributors show that policies to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) can help meet international aviation’s demand for emissions offsets, even after taking into account existing commitments and demand for offsets. Further, a “keep what you save” policy that allows air carriers to use their own fuel use reductions to reduce offsetting obligations could help resolve current debates over allocating offsetting obligations between air carriers.
This fall’s ICAO General Assembly is a critical moment for countries, and the aviation industry, to demonstrate leadership in providing safe international air travel while minimizing risks to the climate.
If countries don’t agree to the market-based measure in October, the world may have to wait until ICAO’s next General Assembly in 2019. With rapid growth of aviation pollution, that’s a delayed take-off that none of us can afford.
Click “read more” to see key takeaways from each article of the special issue of CCLR. The journal’s publisher, Lexxion, has made the special issue free to access through October 7, 2016.