Category Archives: Science – General

Antarctica's Glacial Melt

There should no longer be any doubt. Climate change is here, and it is happening. 26,000 broken heat records this summer speak for themselves.

Extreme weather events hit home. Another consequence of climate change, by contrast – rising sea levels – often seems far away and far off.

“Far away” is easily dismissed. U.S. coasts are as much in danger as sea shores anywhere else on the planet.

"Far off” often seems tougher to address. After all, seas have only risen by inches so far. Projections say we could see three or more feet by the end of the century.

Even right now, though, we’re seeing the evidence of sea level rise. Antarctic ice sheets have been melting to the tune of 24 cubic miles of melt water per year, every year, since 2002.

That is a huge number, but a fairly abstract number. So The Globalist designed a quiz to make the giant quantity feel a bit more real. EDF was honored to help with the research for the quiz.

See if you can answer the question:

If you were to take the melt-off from Antarctica's ice sheets over the past decade (2002 to 2012) and pour it into a California-sized Jell-O mold, how high would the water rise?

The right answer might surprise you. Hint: Think Paul Sturgess, the world's tallest professional basketball player.

And check out The Globalist quiz for more details.

Also posted in Arctic & Antarctic, Extreme Weather, News, Oceans, Science, Science - General | Comments closed

A Great Day for Science Too: More on the Court Decision Affirming Historic Climate Protections

On good days, the facts prevail — and Tuesday was one of those very good days.

As Fred wrote, on Tuesday the U.S. Court of Appeals for Washington, D.C. issued a unanimous, historic decision upholding EPA’s actions to reduce climate pollution.

In our press release, Fred called it a good day for the “thin layer of atmosphere that sustains life on Earth.”

He’s right of course. But our planet wasn’t the only big winner. It was also a great day for science.

The court roundly rejected challenges to EPA’s science-based finding that greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health and welfare (commonly called the Endangerment Finding).

In the process, the court reaffirmed the importance of having rigorous, independent science as the bedrock of efforts to protect our health and environment.

The court’s eloquent statement speaks for itself:    

EPA simply did here what it and other decision-makers often must do to make a science-based judgment:  it sought out and revised existing scientific evidence to determine whether a particular finding was warranted.  It makes no difference that much of the scientific evidence in large part consisted of “syntheses” of individual studies and research.  . . .  This is how science works.  EPA is not required to re-prove the existence of the atom every time it approaches a scientific question.

(That’s from page 27 of the ruling. I added the emphasis.)

The court dismissed the challenges to the Endangerment Finding as without “merit”, noting that EPA relied upon an “ocean of evidence” including 18,000 peer-reviewed studies. (You can find those quotes on pages 26, 34 and 38 of the decision.)  

In dismissing this challenge the court acted in concert with our long history of relying on science-based evidence — not only to shape our health and environmental protections, but as the foundation of American innovation and ingenuity. 

EPA’s Endangerment Finding is based on an extensive review of climate change research, including assessments of climate research prepared by the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences, the United States Global Change Research Program, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The creation of these assessment reports involved thousands of scientists, reviewing thousands of articles from peer-reviewed research journals.

This massive body of research documents the effects that rising atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping emissions are having on our climate. It also documents the harm that climate impacts cause to human health and welfare. 

Affirming EPA's reliance on state-of-the-art climate science, the court discussed the substantial evidence supporting EPA’s Endangerment Finding on page 30 of the decision:

To recap, EPA had before it substantial record evidence that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases “very likely” caused warming of the climate over the last several decades. . .  Relying again upon substantial scientific evidence, EPA determined that anthropogenically induced climate change threatens both public health and public welfare.  It found that extreme weather events, changes in air quality, increases in food- and water-borne pathogens, and increases in temperatures are likely to have adverse health effects … The record also supports EPA’s conclusion that climate change endangers human welfare by creating risk to food production and agriculture, forestry, energy, infrastructure, ecosystems, and wildlife. 

The call from scientists worldwide urging swift action to curb climate-destabilizing emissions has been heard. 

EPA’s efforts to fulfill its statutory responsibility to protect human health and the environment from dangerous pollution have been resoundingly affirmed.   

It is a good day to be a scientist, and an American.

(You can read more about the court cases on our website and in my colleague Megan Ceronsky’s earlier blog on the subject. And stay tuned for more analysis of the historic decisions.)

Also posted in Basic Science of Global Warming, Clean Air Act, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Links and Quotes, Policy, Science, Science - General, Scientists & Methods | Comments closed

South Pacific Island Evacuating Due to Global Warming

Sheryl CanterKiribatiIn March 2007, we blogged about the dire situation of the South Pacific islands Kiribati and Tuvalu. The sea is rising due to global warming, and two uninhabited islands nearby have already sunk. Now Kiribati is preparing for extinction:

The leader of the South Pacific island nation of Kiribati laid out an extraordinary plan Monday (Sept. 22) that would scatter his people through the nations of the world as rising sea levels submerge the islands they have called home for centuries.

Rising sea levels are submerging the land. Land not yet submerged is being rendered uninhabitable by salty ground water.

This post is by Sheryl Canter, an online writer and editorial manager at Environmental Defense Fund.

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Carbon Dioxide Emissions Up 3 Percent in 2007

James Wang's profile2007 EmissionsLast Thursday, the Global Carbon Project released its annual report on the state of the carbon cycle, Carbon Budget 2007 [PDF]. It emphasizes (as we reported earlier this year) that CO2 levels are continuing upward, and the rate of increase is accelerating.

One reason for the acceleration in CO2 concentrations is higher fossil fuel emissions. Despite rising fuel prices, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels rose 3 percent in 2007. That's just slightly below the average increase of 3.5 percent per year since 2000.

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Climate Change Insights from Mohonk Weather Station

Lisa Moore's profileThere was an interesting story in Tuesday's New York Times about a unique weather station in upstate New York next to the Mohonk House resort. Most cooperative observer stations move over time, or the area around them is built up, or the observers and observing methods change. Not so at Mohonk.

At Mohonk, the weather observations are done as they were 112 years ago, and only a handful of people have recorded the over 41,000 readings. Plus Mohonk has an extensive database of wildlife sightings, a 77-year record of Mohonk Lake water quality, and an 83-year record of local phenology (the timing of events such as frost, blooms and migrations) – all observed by the same handful of people. This makes the site's data uniquely valuable:

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Save Our Satellites: We Need Their Climate Data

Lisa MooreThis post is by Lisa Moore, Ph.D., a scientist in the Climate and Air program at Environmental Defense Fund.

"Blue Marble" image of the EarthHave you ever spent time scrolling through NASA's image gallery? Some of the pictures are mesmerizing. I particularly like the "Blue Marble" image of the Earth (at right), which was stitched together using satellite data.

Satellites provide more than pretty pictures. Our ability to understand and predict climate change depends on continuous high-quality satellite data.

Unfortunately, this critical data stream is threatened by budget cuts and lack of political support. In 2005, the National Academies assessed the situation and deemed it "alarming". Three years later, the outlook has not improved.

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Why Climate Projections Have Error Bars

Lisa MooreThis post is by Lisa Moore, Ph.D., a scientist in the Climate and Air program at Environmental Defense Fund.

In 1992, the world's nations gathered to negotiate the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The 192 nations that ratified this treaty – including the U.S. – agreed to the following objective:

[T]o … prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system… within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

The definition of "dangerous" is a social and political judgment that is informed by science. But even if we all agreed on which outcomes we wanted to avoid, scientists couldn't say precisely how much we have to cut emissions to achieve these outcomes. We have good best estimates, but there's always a degree of scientific uncertainty.

Here's why.

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U.S. Government Scientists Chime In

Lisa MooreThis post is by Lisa Moore, Ph.D., a scientist in the Climate and Air program at Environmental Defense Fund.

IPCC scientists have been saying for years that man-made global warming is likely to increase extreme weather events. A new report ("Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate") from U.S. government scientists confirms these findings, and focuses specifically on the U.S.

It's certainly timely, considering the devastating floods in the Midwest.

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Did Humans Cause the Midwest Flooding?

James WangThis post is by James Wang, Ph.D., a climate scientist at Environmental Defense.

The record floodwaters in Iowa and other parts of the Midwest are claiming lives, destroying homes and crops, contaminating drinking water, and – as the AP puts it – spreading "a noxious brew of sewage, farm chemicals, and fuel that could sicken anyone who wades in." The cost in human anguish is incalculable.

But why is it happening? Is it just a freak of nature? One causal element, as reported in today's Washington Post, may be human reengineering of the landscape. Mary Kelly, who heads up EDF's rivers and deltas program, gives a good overview of these issues.

Another element may be global warming, which increases the probability of extreme weather events like torrential rain.

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Highest CO2 and Methane in 800,000 Years

Lisa MooreThis post is by Lisa Moore, Ph.D., a scientist in the Climate and Air program at Environmental Defense Fund.

In IPCC's Third Assessment Report (2001), scientists reported that carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane levels were higher than at any time in the past 420,000 years. In their latest report (2007), IPCC scientists raised the number to 650,000 years.

Last week, scientists again revised the number upward. New research shows that CO2 and methane levels are higher today than they have been in at least 800,000 years.

Here's how they know.

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