Comments on: Predicting Short-Term Change http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/08/10/shortterm_change/ Blogging the science and policy of global warming Sat, 20 Mar 2010 17:48:10 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Lisa Moore http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/08/10/shortterm_change/comment-page-1/#comment-452 Lisa Moore Tue, 21 Aug 2007 16:05:04 +0000 http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/08/10/shortterm_change/#comment-452 RealClimate just posted <a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/08/musings-about-models/" rel="nofollow">a summary of this paper</a>. The relevant paragraphs are in the section "Prediction vs. Projections". RealClimate just posted a summary of this paper. The relevant paragraphs are in the section "Prediction vs. Projections".

]]> By: Lisa Moore http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/08/10/shortterm_change/comment-page-1/#comment-451 Lisa Moore Mon, 13 Aug 2007 20:29:44 +0000 http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/08/10/shortterm_change/#comment-451 Hi kenzrw, The model projects that cooling in the tropical Pacific will slow greenhouse warming over the next couple of years. After that, though, rapid warming kicks in again, with temperatures 0.3 degrees C higher by 2014 than they were in 2004. That's a LOT of warming in just a decade! Predicting these short-term temperature changes is a fascinating challenge; we should be seeing more and more research about this in coming months. Hi kenzrw,

The model projects that cooling in the tropical Pacific will slow greenhouse warming over the next couple of years. After that, though, rapid warming kicks in again, with temperatures 0.3 degrees C higher by 2014 than they were in 2004. That's a LOT of warming in just a decade!

Predicting these short-term temperature changes is a fascinating challenge; we should be seeing more and more research about this in coming months.

]]> By: kenzrw http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/08/10/shortterm_change/comment-page-1/#comment-450 kenzrw Fri, 10 Aug 2007 21:51:20 +0000 http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/08/10/shortterm_change/#comment-450 Quite interesting. I've never read much on 'internal variablility' before, but I'm glad the new and improved climate model takes this natural variability into account. I've always knew that an El Nino event helped cause the 1998 heat, but never though of this as 'internal variability' before. Since the article says this natural variability offset global warming somewhat in the past, the model says that effect won't be able to offset most of the warming past 2008, is that correct? So, instead of warming .5 degree, for instance, a natural internal variability event could lower that warming to, say, .3 degrees, correct? Either way, it's getting warming. Quite interesting. I've never read much on 'internal variablility' before, but I'm glad the new and improved climate model takes this natural variability into account. I've always knew that an El Nino event helped cause the 1998 heat, but never though of this as 'internal variability' before. Since the article says this natural variability offset global warming somewhat in the past, the model says that effect won't be able to offset most of the warming past 2008, is that correct? So, instead of warming .5 degree, for instance, a natural internal variability event could lower that warming to, say, .3 degrees, correct? Either way, it's getting warming.

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