Comments on: Climate Models: How Good Are They? http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/07/18/models_how_good/ Blogging the science and policy of global warming Mon, 16 Nov 2009 07:13:20 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5.2 hourly 1 By: Climate 411 » Predicting Short-Term Change - Blogs & Podcasts - Environmental Defense Fund http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/07/18/models_how_good/comment-page-1/#comment-1175 Climate 411 » Predicting Short-Term Change - Blogs & Podcasts - Environmental Defense Fund Tue, 22 Apr 2008 19:27:11 +0000 http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/07/18/models_how_good/#comment-1175 [...] A paper in today’s issue of Science ("Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model") describes a new and improved climate model that predicts both greenhouse warming and internal climate variability. The model’s hindcasts are substantially better than earlier model results. (For more on hindcasts, see the post "Climate Models: How Good Are They?"). [...] [...] A paper in today's issue of Science ("Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model") describes a new and improved climate model that predicts both greenhouse warming and internal climate variability. The model's hindcasts are substantially better than earlier model results. (For more on hindcasts, see the post "Climate Models: How Good Are They?"). [...]

]]> By: Climate 411 » Ozone Alert For Plants - Environmental Defense http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/07/18/models_how_good/comment-page-1/#comment-376 Climate 411 » Ozone Alert For Plants - Environmental Defense Tue, 07 Aug 2007 21:33:42 +0000 http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/07/18/models_how_good/#comment-376 [...] A few weeks ago, researchers led by Dr. Stephen Sitch published a paper in Nature titled "Indirect radiative forcing of climate change through ozone effects on the land-carbon sink [PDF]" (paid subscription required) that attempts to quantify the problem on a global scale. Using data from the small-scale experiments, they modified a global-scale carbon cycle model to include the effects of CO2 and ozone on plant CO2 uptake. (See my previous post for more on how climate models work.) Then they ran the model using a business-as-usual scenario of CO2 emissions, with and without projected increases in ozone concentration. [...] [...] A few weeks ago, researchers led by Dr. Stephen Sitch published a paper in Nature titled "Indirect radiative forcing of climate change through ozone effects on the land-carbon sink [PDF]" (paid subscription required) that attempts to quantify the problem on a global scale. Using data from the small-scale experiments, they modified a global-scale carbon cycle model to include the effects of CO2 and ozone on plant CO2 uptake. (See my previous post for more on how climate models work.) Then they ran the model using a business-as-usual scenario of CO2 emissions, with and without projected increases in ozone concentration. [...]

]]> By: Rachel Zibelman http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/07/18/models_how_good/comment-page-1/#comment-375 Rachel Zibelman Thu, 19 Jul 2007 19:20:09 +0000 http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/07/18/models_how_good/#comment-375 Global Warming? “No worries,” say two forecasting researchers. Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong recently examined the validity of the climate forecasts. To date, they have found no scientific forecasts to support global warming. Their paper "Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts" is forthcoming in Energy and Environment. The paper can be found at a new site designed to encourage a scientific approach to forecasting for public policy issues, publicpolicyforecasting.com. Reactions to the paper can be found at theclimatebet.com. -Rachel Zibelman on behalf of J. Scott Armstrong Global Warming? “No worries,” say two forecasting researchers.

Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong recently examined the validity of the climate forecasts. To date, they have found no scientific forecasts to support global warming. Their paper "Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts" is forthcoming in Energy and Environment. The paper can be found at a new site designed to encourage a scientific approach to forecasting for public policy issues, publicpolicyforecasting.com. Reactions to the paper can be found at theclimatebet.com.

-Rachel Zibelman on behalf of J. Scott Armstrong

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